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CURRENCY	CURRENT BIAS	POTENTIAL STRATEGY
EUR/USD (Medium Term)		Sell EUR/USD at 1.2985. Stop at 1.3220. Profit target at 1.2435.
GBP/USD (Medium Term)		Sell GBP/USD at 1.5490. Stop at 1.5511. Profit target at 1.5460.
USD/JPY (Medium Term)		Wait until a new pattern emerges.
USD/CHF (Medium Term)		Wait until a new pattern emerges.
USD/CAD (Medium Term)		Wait until a new pattern emerges.
AUD/USD (Medium Term)		See Roger Stojsic's Intraday Technical Report
NZD/USD (Medium Term)		Wait until a new pattern emerges.

Bradley W. Gareiss

Technical Analyst, GFT

• EUR/USD
• GBP/USD
• USD/JPY
• USD/CHF
• USD/CAD
• AUD/USD
• NZD/USD

EUR/USD (Swing Forecast)

Potential Strategy

Sell EUR/USD at 1.2985. Stop at 1.3220. Profit target at 1.2435.

What is the trend?	Down
What is this pattern?	- See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?	Broken bullish trend line could provide new resistance.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?	N/A

Reason for Strategy

We updated both the entry (1.2985) and the stop (1.3220) on this trade although it is the same basic idea that has been posted for the past two days.  We rose our entry from yesterday because the bullish trend line obviously moves up over the course of 24 hours.  The broken trend line could provide new resistance near 1.2985 if that level is tested in the next 24 hours.  

Trade Invalidation

The trade is invalidated if the trade does not enter by 6pm eastern time tomorrow (9/6/2010).

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3	N/A	N/A
Resistance 2	N/A	N/A
Resistance 1	1.2985	Broken trend line
Current Price	1.2894
Support 1	1.2605	50% of YZ on the Daily Chart
Support 2	1.2433	61.8% of YZ on the Daily Chart
Support 3	1.2188	78.6% of YZ on the Daily Chart

• Source: DealBook®360
• Source: DealBook®360

• Daily Chart - Trade would enter near the broken trend line.
• Daily Chart - Close up of our potential entry.

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DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.

GBP/USD (Swing Forecast)

Potential Strategy

Sell GBP/USD at 1.5490. Stop at 1.5511. Profit target at 1.5460.

What is the trend?	Down
What is this pattern?	Bearish Gartley - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?	Five separate levels of resistance line up near the same exactly level (1.5490).
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?	61.8% of YZ on the 2hr Chart, secondary ABCD within the primary CD leg.

Reason for Strategy

A bearish Gartley/double top is forming on the GBP/USD 30min Chart.  The pattern has excellent time symmetry and is currently showing good time symmetry as well.  Additionally, the trade would enter near 61.8% of YZ on the 2hr Chart, and there is a secondary ABCD pattern forming within the primary CD leg.  The only cause for concern is if we see a gap up over the weekend, so don't put this trade on until after the market opens on Sunday.

Trade Invalidation

The trade is invalid if the pair drops to 1.5410 before entering.

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3	1.5539	78.6% of YZ on the 2hr Chart
Resistance 2	1.5493	61.8% of YZ on the 2hr Chart
Resistance 1	1.5490	Bearish Gartley
Current Price	1.5464
Support 1	N/A	N/A
Support 2	N/A	N/A
Support 3	N/A	N/A

• Source: DealBook®360
• Source: DealBook®360

• 2hr Chart - Trade would enter near 61.8% of YZ.
• 1hr Chart - Bearish Gartley; sell at 1.5490.

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DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.

USD/JPY (Swing Forecast)

Potential Strategy

Wait until a new pattern emerges.

What is the trend?	Neutral
What is this pattern?	No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?	There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?	No trade

Reason for Strategy

Our bearish Gartley trade from yesterday won, but I would not have taken this trade (and didn't on my LMA account).  The reason is that Non Farm Payroll gapped the pair up almost instantly to our entry and that momentum almost immediately knocked the trade out.  It ended up winning, but I don't think this was a high percentage trade because it entered right after NFP came out.

Trade Invalidation

No trade

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3	N/A	N/A
Resistance 2	Top of bearish channel	See 8hr Chart
Resistance 1	80.04	Bearish Gartley
Current Price	84.38
Support 1	Bottom of bearish channel	See 8hr Chart
Support 2	N/A	N/A
Support 3	N/A	N/A

• Source: DealBook®360
• Source: DealBook®360

• 8hr Chart - Bearish channel.
• 1hr Chart - Bearish Gartley.

Get Your DealBook® Charting Package Free!

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.

USD/CHF (Swing Forecast)

Potential Strategy

Wait until a new pattern emerges.

What is the trend?	Neutral
What is this pattern?	No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?	There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?	No trade

Reason for Strategy

We have drawn a new bullish trend line on the USD/CHF 30min Chart.  If this trend line breaks next week and the pair rises back to the broken trend line, this could result in a solid opportunity to go short in the context of the bearish channel on the 4hr Chart. 

Trade Invalidation

No trade

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3	N/A	N/A
Resistance 2	N/A	N/A
Resistance 1	Top of bearish channel	See 4hr Chart
Current Price	1.0165
Support 1	Bullish trend line	See 30min Chart
Support 2	Bottom of bearish channel	See 4hr Chart
Support 3	N/A	N/A

• Source: DealBook®360
• Source: DealBook®360

• 4hr Chart - Bearish channel.
• 30min Chart - Bullish trend line.

Get Your DealBook® Charting Package Free!

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.

USD/CAD (Swing Forecast)

Potential Strategy

Wait until a new pattern emerges.

What is the trend?	Neutral
What is this pattern?	No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?	There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?	No trade

Reason for Strategy

This is another example of a pair breaking out of a channel, rising back to the bottom, and seeing new resistance.  While this even occurred between reports, hopefully some of you caught this on your own because I have written so much about this topic.  Also, it appears we may be forming a range on the Daily Chart.

Trade Invalidation

No trade

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3	1.0831	127.2% of AB on the Daily Chart
Resistance 2	1.0676	100% of AB on the Daily Chart
Resistance 1	Bottom of broken bullish channel	See 2hr Chart
Current Price	1.0381
Support 1	1.0138	100% of AB on the Daily Chart
Support 2	0.9992	127.2% of AB on the Daily Chart
Support 3	0.9806	161.8% of XA on the Daily Chart

• Source: DealBook®360
• Source: DealBook®360

• Daily Chart - Is a range forming between point A and point B?
• 2hr Chart - Broken bullish channel.

Get Your DealBook® Charting Package Free!

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.

AUD/USD (Swing Forecast)

Potential Strategy

See Roger Stojsic's Intraday Technical Report

What is the trend?	Down
What is this pattern?	Bearish Gartley - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?	Multiple levels of potential resistance have converged at one precise level.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?	N/A

Reason for Strategy

A bearish Gartley is forming on the AUD/USD 4hr Chart.  Roger Stojsic updated this trade this morning, and I agree with the general pattern.  Please see his report on this pair for a more exact update.

Trade Invalidation

N/A

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3	0.9447	127.2% of XA on the Daily Chart
Resistance 2	0.9387	100% of XA on the Daily Chart
Resistance 1	0.9104	78.6% of XA on the Daily Chart
Current Price	0.9167
Support 1	0.8779	38.2% of AB on the Daily Chart
Support 2	0.8643	50% of AB on the Daily Chart
Support 3	0.8507	61.8% of AB on the Daily Chart

• Source: DealBook®360
• Source: DealBook®360

• Daily Chart - Will we start testing support soon?
• 4hr Chart - Bearish Gartley.

Get Your DealBook® Charting Package Free!

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.

NZD/USD (Swing Forecast)

Potential Strategy

Wait until a new pattern emerges.

What is the trend?	Neutral
What is this pattern?	No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?	There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?	No trade

Reason for Strategy

After it looked like the NZD/USD might not see support at the broken bearish trend line, the pair rallied.  This was a sloppy reaction, but it still technically would have worked.  Regardless, we will go onto the next trade idea next week.

Trade Invalidation

No trade

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3	N/A	N/A
Resistance 2	N/A	N/A
Resistance 1	Bearish trend line	See Weekly Chart
Current Price	0.7207
Support 1	Broken bearish trend line	See 4hr Chart
Support 2	0.7018	N/A
Support 3	N/A	N/A

• Source: DealBook®360
• Source: DealBook®360

• Weekly Chart - Bearish trend line.
• 4hr Chart - Broken bearish trend line.

Get Your DealBook® Charting Package Free!

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.

TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS

• Trades to Watch
• Trades in Progress

currency		recommendation
EUR/USD Long term		Sell at 1.2985 Stop at 1.322 Target at 1.2435
USD/CHF Short term		Sell at 1.0252 Stop at 1.03121 Target at 1.01377
GBP/USD Medium term		Sell at 1.5490 Stop at 1.5511 Target at 1.546

• view more trades

currency		recommendation
EUR/USD Short term Opened 9/3/2010		Short from 1.2863 Stop at 1.29695 Target at 1.2701

• view more trades

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