Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.

CURRENCY	CURRENT BIAS	POTENTIAL STRATEGY
EUR/USD (Medium Term)		Wait until a new pattern emerges.
GBP/USD (Medium Term)		Wait until a new pattern emerges.
USD/JPY (Medium Term)		Wait until a new pattern emerges.
USD/CHF (Medium Term)		Sell USD/CHF at 1.0677. Stop at 1.0706. Profit target at 1.0633.
USD/CAD (Medium Term)		Wait until a new pattern emerges.
AUD/USD (Medium Term)		Wait until a new pattern emerges.
NZD/USD (Medium Term)		Sell NZD/USD at 0.7141. stop at 0.7205. Profit target at 0.7055.

Bradley W. Gareiss

Technical Analyst, GFT

• EUR/USD
• GBP/USD
• USD/JPY
• USD/CHF
• USD/CAD
• AUD/USD
• NZD/USD

EUR/USD (Swing Forecast)

Potential Strategy

Wait until a new pattern emerges.

What is the trend?	Neutral
What is this pattern?	No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?	There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?	No trade

Reason for Strategy

The bottom of the bullish channel has been broken on the EUR/USD Daily Chart.  While nothing is certain, this could suggest that we will test the area where we saw support earlier.  A break below those previous lows could lead to a test of 61.8% of YZ on the Weekly Chart.  Whatever the case, hopefully this move breaks up the range we have been stuck in.

Trade Invalidation

No trade

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3	1.4288	50% of AB on the Daily Chart
Resistance 2	1.4086	38.2% of AB on the Daily Chart
Resistance 1	Bottom of broken channel	See Daily Chart
Current Price	1.3534
Support 1	1.3403	61.8% of YZ on the Weekly Chart
Support 2	1.2930	78.6% of YZ on the Weekly Chart
Support 3	1.2328	100% of YZ on the Weekly Chart

• Source: DealBook®360
• Source: DealBook®360

• Weekly Chart - Will we test 61.8% of YZ next week?
• Daily Chart - Broken bullish channel.

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DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.

GBP/USD (Swing Forecast)

Potential Strategy

Wait until a new pattern emerges.

What is the trend?	Neutral
What is this pattern?	No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?	There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?	No trade

Reason for Strategy

I couldn't resist posting this trade result one more time.  It is just so clear to me that the pattern "worked", but the trade lost because of the British news announcement that came out when the pair was just below the entry.  Entering in this situation is a no-win proposition.  If the news moved the pair up (which it did), then the trade will likely be stopped out.  If the news moves the pair down, then the trade will likely drop to invalidation level before ever entering.  Entering just before the news will likely lead to a negative result even if there is a strong pattern that appears to work.  This is a perfect example to remember next time one of our patterns is about to enter just as a major news announcement is being released.

Trade Invalidation

No trade

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3	N/A	N/A
Resistance 2	N/A	N/A
Resistance 1	1.5284	Bearish Gartley
Current Price	1.5015
Support 1	N/A	N/A
Support 2	N/A	N/A
Support 3	N/A	N/A

• Source: DealBook®360
• Source: DealBook®360

• Daily Chart - Resistance appears to take hold for now.
• 4hr Chart - Bearish Gartley creating some resistance after a British news announcement knocked the trade out.

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DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.

USD/JPY (Swing Forecast)

Potential Strategy

Wait until a new pattern emerges.

What is the trend?	Neutral
What is this pattern?	No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?	There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?	No trade

Reason for Strategy

The only pattern to draw is the bullish Gartley forming on the Daily Chart.  We have not fully posted it yet for several reasons: strong long term bearish channel, trade will take multiple days to complete, and long bars would have to be present for the pattern to complete soon.  Therefore, we will keep it on the radar for now, but we will not post the trade yet.

Trade Invalidation

No trade

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3	104.47	50% of XC on the Weekly Chart
Resistance 2	99.83	38.2% of XC on the Weekly Chart
Resistance 1	Top of bearish channel	See Weekly Chart
Current Price	90.54
Support 1	88.25	61.8% of XA on the Daily Chart
Support 2	87.12	100% of AB on the Weekly Chart
Support 3	86.74	78.6% if XA on the Daily Chart

• Source: DealBook®360
• Source: DealBook®360

• Weekly Chart - Bearish channel.
• Daily Chart - Possible bullish Gartley forming.

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DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.

USD/CHF (Swing Forecast)

Potential Strategy

Sell USD/CHF at 1.0677. Stop at 1.0706. Profit target at 1.0633.

What is the trend?	Down
What is this pattern?	Bearish Butterfly - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?	Converging Fibonacci levels provide strong resistance @ point D.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?	Trade would enter near the top of the bearish channel on the 4hr Chart.

Reason for Strategy

There is a bearish butterfly forming on the USD/CHF 1hr Chart.  The pattern has excellent price symmetry, although we obviously have to wait to see how the time symmetry shakes out.  The trade would enter near the top of the bearish channel on the 4hr Chart as well.  If CD rises with roughly the same slope as AB, this will be a high probability trade.

Trade Invalidation

A move below 1.0565 before reaching point D would cancel the trade. Additionally, a move above 1.0677 would stop the trade out. Long bars in the CD leg near the entry would also invalidate this trade. Also, if the pattern comes within 8 pips of hitting the entry, does not enter, and reaches 1.0617, the trade is also invalidated.

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3	N/A	N/A
Resistance 2	Top of bearish channel	See 4hr Chart
Resistance 1	1.0677	Bearish butterfly
Current Price	1.0603
Support 1	Bottom of bearish channel	See 4hr Chart
Support 2	N/A	N/A
Support 3	N/A	N/A

• Source: DealBook®360
• Source: DealBook®360

• 4hr Chart - Trade would enter near the top of the bearish channel.
• 1hr Chart - Bearish butterfly; sell at 1.0677.

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DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.

USD/CAD (Swing Forecast)

Potential Strategy

Wait until a new pattern emerges.

What is the trend?	Neutral
What is this pattern?	No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?	There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?	No trade

Reason for Strategy

Some major news made for a wild morning with the USD/CAD.  The pair gapped down, plummeted, and then rose back up almost as quickly as it fell.  This type of erratic price action is exactly why I try to avoid entering a trade immediately before a major announcement related to a currency within the pair.  Interestingly, the pair jumped off of the trend lines we had drawn, but it would be hard to profit off of those lines in this case.  We will wait for the pair to reset next week.

Trade Invalidation

No trade

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3	1.0419	50% of AD on the Daily Chart
Resistance 2	1.0335	38.2% of AD on the Daily Chart
Resistance 1	Top of bullish channel	See 1hr Chart
Current Price	1.0163
Support 1	Bottom of bullish channel	See 1hr Chart
Support 2	Broken bearish trend line	See 1hr Chart
Support 3	1.0072	127.2% of XA on the Daily Chart

• Source: DealBook®360
• Source: DealBook®360

• Daily Chart - Will 1.0072 (127.2% of XA) hold?
• 1hr Chart - Erratic price action after several major announcements.

Get Your DealBook® Charting Package Free!

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.

AUD/USD (Swing Forecast)

Potential Strategy

Wait until a new pattern emerges.

What is the trend?	Neutral
What is this pattern?	No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?	There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?	No trade

Reason for Strategy

Sometimes I feel like a broken record when I cover long bars, but this is a perfect example of why I mention long bars on every single trade setup that I post.  There was a clear long bar accelerating to the entry of the posted trade.  If you have read a number of my articles, I truly hope you avoided this trade.  If you are new, this is a good learning experience on why we do not enter trades with clear long bars accelerating to the entry.

Trade Invalidation

No trade

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3	N/A	N/A
Resistance 2	N/A	N/A
Resistance 1	Top of bullish channel	See 4hr Chart
Current Price	0.9161
Support 1	Bottom of bullish channel	See 4hr Chart
Support 2	N/A	N/A
Support 3	N/A	N/A

• Source: DealBook®360
• Source: DealBook®360

• 4hr Chart - Bullish channel.
• 1hr Chart - Bullish Gartley with long bar at entry; trades like this should not be taken.

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DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.

NZD/USD (Swing Forecast)

Potential Strategy

Sell NZD/USD at 0.7141. stop at 0.7205. Profit target at 0.7055.

What is the trend?	Down
What is this pattern?	Bearish Gartley - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?	Converging Fibonacci levels provide strong resistance @ point D.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?	Entry occurs just above 38.2% of X3A and 50% of X2A. Double top.

Reason for Strategy

The bearish Gartley pattern has completed on the NZD/USD 4hr Chart.  There are three potential candidates for point X that all line up at the same basic level.  It is still possible to enter the trade at 0.7141 assuming the pair hasn't hit either the stop or the profit target.  Also, note that we have slightly changed the profit target to 0.7055.

Trade Invalidation

A move above 0.7205 would stop the trade out.

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3	N/A	N/A
Resistance 2	N/A	N/A
Resistance 1	0.7141	Bearish Gartley
Current Price	0.7081
Support 1	0.7055	38.2% of CD
Support 2	N/A	N/A
Support 3	N/A	N/A

• Source: DealBook®360
• Source: DealBook®360

• Daily Chart - Trade entered just above 38.2% of X3A and 50% of X2A.
• 8hr Chart - Bearish Gartley; sell at 0.7141.

Get Your DealBook® Charting Package Free!

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.

TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS

• Trades to Watch
• Trades in Progress

currency		recommendation
AUD/CHF Short term		Buy at .9560 Stop at 0.952 Target at 0.9634
USD/CHF Medium term		Sell at 1.0677 Stop at 1.0706 Target at 1.0633
NZD/CAD Medium term		Sell at .7320 Stop at 0.7363 Target at 0.7255

• view more trades

currency		recommendation
GBP/JPY Medium term Opened 3/18/2010		Long from 136.1000 Stop at 135.58 Target at 136.67
NZD/USD Medium term Opened 2/26/2010		Short from 0.7141 Stop at 0.7205 Target at 0.7055

• view more trades

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