CURRENCYCURRENT BIASPOTENTIAL STRATEGY
EUR/USD (Short Term)
Watch for a break of near-term 1.2340-85 range to signal a quick burst of momentum
GBP/USD (Short Term)
Pulling back from key 1.5750 resistance, see full report for more details
USD/JPY (Short Term)
Trade in progress: Bought USD/JPY at 79.48, stop at 79.07, target at 79.95
USD/CHF (Short Term)
Bouncing slightly from .9700 support, watch EUR/USD for further clues
USD/CAD (Short Term)
Trade in Progress: Sold USD/CAD at .9898, stop at .9943, target at .9805. Looking to move stop to breakeven if rates drop to .9850.
AUD/USD (Short Term)
Break below 1.0450 foreshadows further drops, aggressive traders may want to look for short-term sell trades
NZD/USD (Short Term)
Pulling back slightly, but support anticipated near weekly lows at .8040

Matthew Weller

Technical Analyst, GFT

  • EUR/USD
  • GBP/USD
  • USD/JPY
  • USD/CHF
  • USD/CAD
  • AUD/USD
  • NZD/USD
EUR/USD (Intraday Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Watch for a break of near-term 1.2340-85 range to signal a quick burst of momentum
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?Bearish Pin Candle - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?A Bearish Pin (Pinnochio) candle, or inverted hammer, is formed when prices rally within the candle before sellers step in and push prices back down to close near the open. It suggests the potential for a bearish continuation if the low of the candle is broken.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

Trade in the EUR/USD was relatively lackluster after a surge during yesterday’s North American session. As of writing, the pair is consolidating between support at the central Monthly Pivot point (1.2339) and near-term resistance at 1.2385. For the rest of the day/week, we will likely see the same pattern we’ve seen throughout this week: the pair will react to news and economic data in the early part of the North American session before trade slows down as traders exit the office early for another long summer weekend. 

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3tbd
Resistance 21.2500Round handle resistance
Resistance 11.2440Previous resistance
Current Price1.2355
Support 11.2340Monthly Pivot
Support 21.2250Previous support
Support 31.2200Round handle support
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GBP/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Pulling back from key 1.5750 resistance, see full report for more details
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

 

The GBP/USD followed the Euro higher yesterday morning, but has since gradually faded back to the same levels we were at to begin last week. The moves over the past 24 hours confirm strong resistance near 1.5750, which has reliably capped rallies since May. Moving forward, a further pullback from this level would not be surprising, though like the EUR/USD, volatility will probably dry up as the European market closes. Stay tuned to FX360 and our daily Live Market Analysis webinars for any trade opportunities or intraday updates.

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3tbd
Resistance 21.5826Monthly R1 Pivot
Resistance 11.5750Previous resistance
Current Price1.5694
Support 11.5609Monthly Pivot
Support 21.5575Previous support
Support 3tbd
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USD/JPY (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Trade in progress: Bought USD/JPY at 79.48, stop at 79.07, target at 79.95
What is the trend?Up
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

 

The USD/JPY continued to grind higher over the past 24 hours, hitting a fresh 5-week high above 79.50. The overnight rally triggered the USD/JPY long position highlighted in yesterday’s feature article, leaving us long from 79.48. As long as the pair holds above the stop loss at 79.07, we will watch for the uptrend to continue, with room up to key psychological resistance at 80.00 over the next few trading days.

 

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3tbd
Resistance 280.00Key psychological resistance
Resistance 179.43Monthly R1 Pivot
Current Price79.40
Support 179.00Round handle support
Support 278.00Round handle support
Support 3tbd
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USD/CHF (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Bouncing slightly from .9700 support, watch EUR/USD for further clues
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?Bullish Pin Candle - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?A Bullish Pin (Pinnochio) candle, also known as a hammer or paper umbrella, is formed when prices fall within the candle before buyers step in and push prices back up to close near the open. It suggests the potential for a bullish continuation if the high of the candle is broken.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

 

The USD/CHF dropped sharply during yesterday’s early North American trade, but has since consolidated in a relatively tight range above support at .9700. The pair recently completed a Bullish Pin Candle off this support level, and another one appears to be in progress; these candlestick patterns indicate a shift from selling to buying pressure and are often seen at near-term bottoms in the market. However, traders should remember that trading the USD/CHF is pointless, until and unless the EUR/CHF starts to move substantially; instead, traders should focus opportunities in the EUR/USD, which has been moving directly opposite to the Swissie and offers lower spreads and better liquidity.

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3tbd
Resistance 2.9900Round handle resistance
Resistance 1.9800Round handle resistance
Current Price.9719
Support 1.9700Previous support
Support 2.9660Previous support
Support 3tbd
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USD/CAD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Trade in Progress: Sold USD/CAD at .9898, stop at .9943, target at .9805. Looking to move stop to breakeven if rates drop to .9850.
What is the trend?Down
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

 

The USD/CAD briefly bounced yesterday before continuing its recent trend of lower lows and lower highs. The brief bounce yesterday morning triggered the limit sell order highlighted in yesterday’s Candlestick Daily report, leaving us short from .9898. As of writing, the pair is consolidating around .9870, near our “stop-to-breakeven” level at .9850. For now, we will let this trade ride with no adjustments, but as always, Stay tuned to FX360 and our daily Live Market Analysis webinars for changes or modifications ahead of the weekend.

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3tbd
Resistance 21.0000Key psychological resistance
Resistance 1.9936Monthly S1 Pivot
Current Price.9872
Support 1.9846Monthly S2 Pivot
Support 2.9800Previous support
Support 3tbd
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AUD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Break below 1.0450 foreshadows further drops, aggressive traders may want to look for short-term sell trades
What is the trend?Down
What is this pattern?Bearish Marubozu Candle - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?A Marubozu candle is formed when prices open very near to one extreme of the candle and close very near the other extreme. Marubozu candles represent strong momentum in a given direction.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

 

The Aussie reversed violently lower overnight after forming a modest bounce from the 1.0450 level over the past two days. The reversal was confirmed by a Bearish Marubozu Candle on the 4hr chart, which indicates strong selling pressure and suggests that the recent break is more likely to be sustained. With rates now trading below key support at 1.0450, further pullbacks are likely. The next major level of support is the lower end of the bullish channel on the daily chart around 1.0350, leaving plenty of room for more aggressive traders to take short-term sell trades in the pair.

 

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 31.0600Round handle resistance
Resistance 21.0500Round handle resistance
Resistance 11.0450Previous support
Current Price1.0434
Support 11.0400Round handle support
Support 21.0377Monthly Pivot
Support 3tbd
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NZD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Pulling back slightly, but support anticipated near weekly lows at .8040
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?Bearish Marubozu Candle - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?A Marubozu candle is formed when prices open very near to one extreme of the candle and close very near the other extreme. Marubozu candles represent strong momentum in a given direction.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

The Kiwi followed its larger antipodean brother lower in overnight trade, though in its case, the NZD/USD remains above the week’s lows. For the rest of the day/week, further drops would not be surprising, but the pair is likely to find support on a pullback to the weekly lows at .8040. Stay tuned to FX360 and our daily Live Market Analysis webinars for any trade opportunities or intraday updates later today

 

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3.8217Monthly R1 pivot
Resistance 2.8160Previous resistance
Resistance 1.8100Round handle resistance
Current Price.8073
Support 1.8040Previous support
Support 2.8012Monthly Pivot
Support 3.8000Round handle support
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The information, including Commentary and Trade Ideas, provided on FX360.com should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research which should be performed before making your investment decisions. Global Futures & Forex, Ltd. (“GFT Markets”) and FX360.com is merely providing this information for your general information. The information and opinions presented do not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. Any projections or views of the market provided by FX360.com may not prove to be accurate.

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TRADE IDEAS

  • Trades to Watch
  • Trades in Progress
currency trade idea
USD/CAD
Medium term



 Buy Buy at 1.0230
Stop at 1.0195
Target at 1.0275
currency trade idea
GBP/JPY
Medium term
Opened 5/16/2013
 Sell Short from 156.6000
Stop at 157.4
Target at 155.1
These are hypothetical trades and should not be relied upon as a substitute for independent research.

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