CURRENCYCURRENT BIASPOTENTIAL STRATEGY
EUR/USD (Short Term)
At weekly lows, watching for further drops toward 1.2200 or below
GBP/USD (Short Term)
Break below ascending triangle suggests room for further drops toward last week's lows at 1.5500
USD/JPY (Short Term)
Buy if USD/JPY pulls back to 78.10, stop at 77.90, target at 78.50
USD/CHF (Short Term)
Inching higher to test .9800, break above points to likely continuation toward .9900
USD/CAD (Short Term)
Update: USD/CAD trade stopped out on weak Canadian Jobs data. Bulls may try to press for run up to parity (1.00) next
AUD/USD (Short Term)
Break below 1.0535 is strongly bearish, now watching for resistance at this level
NZD/USD (Short Term)
Following bearish trend line lower, but strong support looms at .8070

Matthew Weller

Technical Analyst, GFT

  • EUR/USD
  • GBP/USD
  • USD/JPY
  • USD/CHF
  • USD/CAD
  • AUD/USD
  • NZD/USD
EUR/USD (Intraday Forecast)
Potential Strategy
At weekly lows, watching for further drops toward 1.2200 or below
What is the trend?Down
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

The EUR/USD continued its selloff over the past 24 hours, with rates now trading convincing below the 1.2300 round handle. As we mentioned in yesterday’s Candlestick Daily report, the bears are thoroughly in control of trade in the EUR/USD, and with no support until 1.2200 or previous lows at 1.2150, further drops are likely ahead of the weekend. This bearish bias will remain intact as long as rates remain below monthly pivot resistance at 1.2340. Stay tuned to FX360 and our daily Live Market Analysis webinars for any trade opportunities or intraday updates.

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3tbd
Resistance 21.2440Previous resistance
Resistance 11.2340Monthly Pivot resistance
Current Price1.2263
Support 11.2200Round handle support
Support 21.2150Previous support
Support 3tbd
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GBP/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Break below ascending triangle suggests room for further drops toward last week's lows at 1.5500
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?Bearish Marubozu Candle - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?A Marubozu candle is formed when prices open very near to one extreme of the candle and close very near the other extreme. Marubozu candles represent strong momentum in a given direction.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

The GBP/USD dropped sharply during today’s late Asian session, convincing breaking below the ascending triangle pattern noted in yesterday’s report. As with the EUR/USD, the quick drop through support has bolstered the bearish case and the unit may now target last week’s lows near 1.5500. Even if the pair does bounce briefly, the convergence of the underside of ascending triangle and previous resistance at 1.5665 is likely to put a cap on rates. Stay tuned to FX360 and our daily Live Market Analysis webinars for any trade opportunities or intraday updates.

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3tbd
Resistance 21.5750Previous resistance
Resistance 11.5665Previous resistance
Current Price1.5600
Support 11.5500Round handle support
Support 2tbd
Support 3tbd
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USD/JPY (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Buy if USD/JPY pulls back to 78.10, stop at 77.90, target at 78.50
What is the trend?Up
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

The USD/JPY has continued to tread water this week within its familiar 78.00-60 range. Monday’s straightforward trade idea was technically invalidated Wednesday, but the general thesis for the trade remains valid, so we have reissued the trade idea and extended it through the remainder of this week. Beyond that, traders are awaiting a clear break from the recent zone before a more sustainable trend can emerge.

Trade Invalidation
This trade would be invalidated if not triggered by the end of today’s trade.
Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3tbd
Resistance 279.00Round handle resistance
Resistance 178.67Monthly Pivot
Current Price78.36
Support 178.00Round handle support
Support 277.25Monthly S1 pivot
Support 3tbd
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USD/CHF (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Inching higher to test .9800, break above points to likely continuation toward .9900
What is the trend?Up
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

The USD/CHF inched slightly higher over the past 24 hours as more traders tentatively bought in to the near-term uptrend. Rates are currently consolidating just below the .9800 round handle, but a break above this level would clear the path for a run up to previous resistance at .9900. Beyond that, trading the USD/CHF is pointless, until and unless the EUR/CHF starts to move substantially; instead, traders should focus opportunities in the EUR/USD, which has been moving directly opposite to the Swissie and offers lower spreads and better liquidity.

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 31.0000Key psychological resistance
Resistance 2.9900Previous resistance
Resistance 1.9800Round handle resistance
Current Price.9790
Support 1.9737Monthly Pivot
Support 2.9600Round handle support
Support 3tbd
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USD/CAD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Update: USD/CAD trade stopped out on weak Canadian Jobs data. Bulls may try to press for run up to parity (1.00) next
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?Bullish Pin Candle - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?A Bullish Pin (Pinnochio) candle, also known as a hammer or paper umbrella, is formed when prices fall within the candle before buyers step in and push prices back up to close near the open. It suggests the potential for a bullish continuation if the high of the candle is broken.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

The USD/CAD bounced overnight back to resistance at its recent bearish trend line. Yesterday, we outlined a short-term selling opportunity to take advantage of this trend, which has now been triggered. As of writing, the pair appears to be inching above the bearish trend line (a recent Bullish Pin Candle on the 4hr chart confirms this move); however, high-impact Canadian employment data is anticipated at about the same time this report will be published, giving us a relatively low risk opportunity to play the upcoming fundamental news. Thus, we will let the trade ride with no adjustments for now.

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3tbd
Resistance 21.0092Monthly Pivot
Resistance 11.0000Key psychological resistance
Current Price.9945
Support 1.9936Monthly S1 Pivot
Support 2.9900Round handle support
Support 3tbd
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AUD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Break below 1.0535 is strongly bearish, now watching for resistance at this level
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

The Aussie conclusively broke below previous-resistance-turned-support at 1.0535 last night as the RBA sounded the alarm on the high value of the AUD. This finally stopped out our AUD/USD trade from Monday, though hopefully some of you took yesterday’s advice to close the trade out early near breakeven levels. Moving forward, the 1.0535 level may again be expected to provide resistance for the Aussie, opening the door for further drops over the course of today’s trade. More aggressive traders may want to look for short-term sell trades, but given the potential for slow trade after the London market closes, waiting until next week’s open to establish new positions would be the prudent course of action.

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3tbd
Resistance 21.0600Round handle resistance
Resistance 11.0535Previous support, now resistance
Current Price1.0515
Support 11.0500Round handle support
Support 21.0450Previous support
Support 3tbd
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NZD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Following bearish trend line lower, but strong support looms at .8070
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?Bearish Pin Candle - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?A Bearish Pin (Pinnochio) candle, or inverted hammer, is formed when prices rally within the candle before sellers step in and push prices back down to close near the open. It suggests the potential for a bearish continuation if the low of the candle is broken.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

The Kiwi followed the Aussie lower over the past 24 hours, with minor bounces quickly sold off by aggressive sellers. The pair has formed a short-term downtrend, and with 5 failed tests already this week, this trend line is likely to serve as strong resistance moving forward. Our note from yesterday’s report remains valid: “The next level of support is near last week’s lows at .8070, and bulls may stay on the sidelines until rates approach this level before making a stand. Stay tuned to FX360 and our daily Live Market Analysis webinars for any trade opportunities or intraday updates.”

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3tbd
Resistance 2.8300Round handle resistance
Resistance 1.8217Monthly R1 pivot
Current Price.8092
Support 1.8070Previous support
Support 2.8012Monthly Pivot
Support 3tbd
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DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. We generally encourage readers and clients not to risk more than 3% of their account on any single trade. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.

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NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.


The information, including Commentary and Trade Ideas, provided on FX360.com should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research which should be performed before making your investment decisions. Global Futures & Forex, Ltd. (“GFT Markets”) and FX360.com is merely providing this information for your general information. The information and opinions presented do not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. Any projections or views of the market provided by FX360.com may not prove to be accurate.

The views of the authors and analysts are not necessarily those of GFT Markets, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com. GFT Markets and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
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TRADE IDEAS

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currency trade idea
AUD/USD
Medium term



 Sell Sell at .9775
Stop at 0.985
Target at 0.963
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