CURRENCYCURRENT BIASPOTENTIAL STRATEGY
EUR/USD (Short Term)
Sell if EUR/USD bounces to 1.2210, stop at 1.2260, target at 1.2160
GBP/USD (Short Term)
At new 1-month lows below 1.5450, room for further drops toward 1.5400
USD/JPY (Short Term)
Retesting range lows at 79.20, see full report for more details
USD/CHF (Short Term)
Rallying above .9800 round handle, room for further gains toward .9900. See full report for more details
USD/CAD (Short Term)
Key resistance looming at 1.0256 (monthly pivot)
AUD/USD (Short Term)
Bearish fundamental data stopped out yesterday's trade for +12 pips, now watching 1.0100 round handle.
NZD/USD (Short Term)
Falling sharply from yesterday's test of .8000 psychological resistance, now watching support at .7850.

Matthew Weller

Technical Analyst, GFT

  • EUR/USD
  • GBP/USD
  • USD/JPY
  • USD/CHF
  • USD/CAD
  • AUD/USD
  • NZD/USD
EUR/USD (Intraday Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Sell if EUR/USD bounces to 1.2210, stop at 1.2260, target at 1.2160
What is the trend?Down
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

The EUR/USD finally broke below key support at 1.2250 yesterday, leading to a quick drop through the 1.2200 round handle overnight. Most analysts are now watching for a move down to previous support (from 2 years ago) at 1.2150. Though targeting that level from current rates would not offer a substantial potential profit, a brief bounce could provide the ideal entry into a sell trade.

Specifically, traders could set a limit sell order at 1.2210 (just below a bearish trend line on the 1hr chart, not shown), with a stop at 1.2260 (above previous-support-turned-resistance at 1.2250) and a target at 1.2160 (just ahead of the widely watched 1.2150 floor). 

Trade Invalidation
This short-term trade idea would be invalidated if not triggered by the end of today’s North American trading session (17:00 Eastern, 21:00 GMT).
Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3tbd
Resistance 21.2383Monthly R1 Pivot
Resistance 11.2250Previous support, now resistance
Current Price1.2176
Support 11.2150Previous support
Support 21.2106Monthly S2 pivot
Support 3tbd
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  • 4hr Chart -
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GBP/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
At new 1-month lows below 1.5450, room for further drops toward 1.5400
What is the trend?Down
What is this pattern?Bearish Marubozu Candle - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?A Marubozu candle is formed when prices open very near to one extreme of the candle and close very near the other extreme. Marubozu candles represent strong momentum in a given direction.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

The GBP/USD followed the EUR/USD lower, breaking to new 1-month lows below 1.5450. As of writing, the pair is showing strong selling momentum, with a Bearish Marubozu Candle recently completing on the 4hr chart. As a result, lower prices are likely over the course of today’s trade, with bears targeting the 1.5400 round handle and Monthly S1 pivot at 1.5387 next. Stay tuned to FX360 and our daily Live Market Analysis webinars for any intraday updates or trade opportunities later today.

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3tbd
Resistance 21.5700Round handle resistance
Resistance 11.5582Monthly Pivot
Current Price1.5436
Support 11.5400Round handle support
Support 21.5387Monthly S1 Pivot
Support 3tbd
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  • 4hr Chart -
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USD/JPY (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Retesting range lows at 79.20, see full report for more details
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?Bearish Marubozu Candle - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?A Marubozu candle is formed when prices open very near to one extreme of the candle and close very near the other extreme. Marubozu candles represent strong momentum in a given direction.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

The USD/JPY bounced yesterday before falling sharply overnight on a modest change in policy by the Bank of Japan. So, for the third consecutive day, the USD/JPY is again testing the low end of its recent range as the North American session opens. This level has put a floor under rates consistently for the past 2 weeks and could lead to another modest bounce today. If the bears can push the pair down through this floor though, a quick drop to previous support at 78.60 becomes more likely.

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3tbd
Resistance 280.50Previous resistance
Resistance 180.00Round handle resistance
Current Price79.31
Support 179.20Previous support
Support 279.00Round handle support
Support 3tbd
  • 4hr Chart -
  • 4hr Chart -
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USD/CHF (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Rallying above .9800 round handle, room for further gains toward .9900. See full report for more details
What is the trend?Up
What is this pattern?Bullish Marubozu Candle - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?A Marubozu candle is formed when prices open very near to one extreme of the candle and close very near the other extreme. Marubozu candles represent strong momentum in a given direction.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

The USD/CHF was finally able to break through resistance at .9800 yesterday, suggesting that further rallies are possible to close the week. Moving forward, the .8000 area is now likely to provide support for the pair, and bulls will press for a move up to the next level of Monthly Pivot resistance at .9910. Regardless, trading the USD/CHF is pointless, until and unless the EUR/CHF starts to move substantially; instead, traders should focus opportunities in the EUR/USD, which has been moving directly opposite to the Swissie and offers lower spreads and better liquidity.


Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3tbd
Resistance 2tbd
Resistance 1.9910Monthly R2 Pivot
Current Price.9862
Support 1.9800Round handle support
Support 2.9698Monthly R1 Pivot
Support 3tbd
  • 4hr Chart -
  • 4hr Chart -
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USD/CAD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Key resistance looming at 1.0256 (monthly pivot)
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

While all the other major currency pairs moved substantially in the past 24 hours, the USD/CAD has remained relatively stationary below key resistance at 1.0256, the Monthly Pivot Point. A move up to this barrier would not be surprising, but given the constrained price action of late, its unlikely bulls will be able to push the unit through this ceiling. Stay tuned to FX360 and our daily Live Market Analysis webinars for any intraday updates or trade opportunities later today.

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3tbd
Resistance 21.0300Round handle resistance
Resistance 11.0256Monthly Pivot
Current Price1.0235
Support 11.0160Previous support
Support 21.0100Round handle support
Support 31.0050Previous resistance, now support
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  • 4hr Chart -
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AUD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Bearish fundamental data stopped out yesterday's trade for +12 pips, now watching 1.0100 round handle.
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?Bearish Marubozu Candle - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?A Marubozu candle is formed when prices open very near to one extreme of the candle and close very near the other extreme. Marubozu candles represent strong momentum in a given direction.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

The Aussie consolidated early in yesterday’s North American session before getting hit by a freight train of bad economic data. First, the recent FOMC minutes indicated that the Federal Reserve was waiting for a significant economic deterioration before looking at QE3, a development which benefited the U.S. Dollar. Then, during the early Asian session, Australian employment data came out far worse than expected, exacerbating the AUD/USD drop. Thankfully, we were able to adjust the stop loss on our open AUD/USD long trade up to 1.0227, resulting in a small 12-pip gain before the reversal took hold. Moving forward, a break through the 1.0100 round handle could open the door for further selling pressure in the pair.

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3tbd
Resistance 21.0300Round handle resistance
Resistance 11.0150Previous support, now resistance
Current Price1.0119
Support 11.0100Round handle support
Support 21.0025Monthly Pivot
Support 3tbd
  • 4hr Chart -
  • 4hr Chart -
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NZD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Falling sharply from yesterday's test of .8000 psychological resistance, now watching support at .7850.
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?Bearish Marubozu Candle - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?A Marubozu candle is formed when prices open very near to one extreme of the candle and close very near the other extreme. Marubozu candles represent strong momentum in a given direction.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

The NZD/USD also fell on the weak economic data out of its closely related antipodean brother. The pair was never able to break above the key .8000 level and is now approaching critical support at the convergence of previous lows near .7850 and the Monthly Pivot Point at .7835. Given the recent Bearish Marubozu candle, a test of this level seems likely, but the sellers will have to push the pair through this floor before more significant losses can be seen.

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3tbd
Resistance 2.8000Round handle resistance
Resistance 1.7940Previous support, now resistance
Current Price.7872
Support 1.7850Previous support
Support 2.7835Monthly Pivot
Support 3tbd
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  • 4hr Chart -
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DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. We generally encourage readers and clients not to risk more than 3% of their account on any single trade. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.

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NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.


The information, including Commentary and Trade Ideas, provided on FX360.com should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research which should be performed before making your investment decisions. Global Futures & Forex, Ltd. (“GFT Markets”) and FX360.com is merely providing this information for your general information. The information and opinions presented do not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. Any projections or views of the market provided by FX360.com may not prove to be accurate.

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TRADE IDEAS

  • Trades to Watch
  • Trades in Progress
currency trade idea
USD/CAD
Medium term



 Buy Buy at 1.0225
Stop at 1.0195
Target at 1.0285
currency trade idea
GBP/JPY
Medium term
Opened 5/16/2013
 Sell Short from 156.6000
Stop at 156.6
Target at 155.1
These are hypothetical trades and should not be relied upon as a substitute for independent research.

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