CURRENCYCURRENT BIASPOTENTIAL STRATEGY
EUR/USD (Short Term)
Consolidation continues around 1.2300 round handle
GBP/USD (Short Term)
Yesterday's sell trade invalidated, rates continue to grind modestly higher. See full report for more details
USD/JPY (Short Term)
Bouncing from monthly lows, room up to upper 79.00s
USD/CHF (Short Term)
Pulling back from 7-month highs near .9800, but bullish momentum intact. See full report for more details
USD/CAD (Short Term)
At weekly lows as rates finally break from 1.0200 round handle. Room down to 1.0100 if bears remain in control
AUD/USD (Short Term)
Buy if AUD/USD pulls back to 1.0215, stop at 1.0150, target at 1.0295
NZD/USD (Short Term)
Rallying, but key psychological resistance looms at .8000. Break through this barrier would quickly target .8060

Matthew Weller

Technical Analyst, GFT

  • EUR/USD
  • GBP/USD
  • USD/JPY
  • USD/CHF
  • USD/CAD
  • AUD/USD
  • NZD/USD
EUR/USD (Intraday Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Consolidation continues around 1.2300 round handle
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

The EUR/USD traded in a tight range over the past 24 hours. Rates inched higher over the course of yesterday’s North American session before dropping sharply back below the 1.2300 handle in early Asian trade. As of writing, the pair is once again near weekly highs, but with so little conviction behind the bounce, it’s clear that the bears remain in control. As we noted yesterday, “Bounces into previous-support-turned-resistance near the Monthly R1 pivot at 1.2383 would be seen as strong selling opportunities later in the week. Stay tuned to FX360 and our daily Live Market Analysis webinars for any intraday updates or trade opportunities later today.”

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3tbd
Resistance 21.2500Round handle resistance
Resistance 11.2383Monthly S1 Pivot
Current Price1.2307
Support 11.22502-year lows
Support 21.2200Round handle support
Support 3tbd
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GBP/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Yesterday's sell trade invalidated, rates continue to grind modestly higher. See full report for more details
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

The GBP/USD has also inched higher over the past 24 hours, though this move also lacks convincing momentum. Regardless, the modest bounce invalidated the GBP/USD sell trade featured in yesterday’s Candlestick Daily report, and the orders should now be cancelled. Moving forward, the near-term outlook for Cable is nearly identical to that of the EUR/USD: rates may continue to inch higher in the near-term, but for now, the bears remain in control and selling opportunities will be favored later in the week.

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3tbd
Resistance 21.5700Round handle resistance
Resistance 11.5582Monthly Pivot
Current Price1.5530
Support 11.5460Previous support
Support 21.5387Monthly S1 Pivot
Support 3tbd
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USD/JPY (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Bouncing from monthly lows, room up to upper 79.00s
What is the trend?Up
What is this pattern?Piercing Candle - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?A Piercing Candle is formed when one candle opens near the bottom of the previous candle’s range, but buyers step in and push rates up to close in the upper half of the previous candle’s range. It suggests a potential trend reversal.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

The USD/JPY dropped yesterday, briefly taking rates to new monthly lows below pivot point support at 79.36. However, rates are now showing signs of bouncing from this key support level. To wit, rates are in the process of carving out a Piercing Candle formation, which indicates a shift from selling to buying pressure and may push rates back toward the middle of the monthly range. More aggressive traders may want to look for intraday buying opportunities, but for now, we will remain on the sidelines until volatility picks up further.

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3tbd
Resistance 280.50Previous resistance
Resistance 180.00Round handle resistance
Current Price79.46
Support 179.36Monthly Pivot
Support 279.00Round handle support
Support 3tbd
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USD/CHF (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Pulling back from 7-month highs near .9800, but bullish momentum intact. See full report for more details
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

The USD/CHF continued to trade inversely to the EUR/USD over the past 24 hours, with rates inching primarily consolidating in a tight range near last week’s high. Volatility in the pair is currently lackluster, though a break above the round .9800 handle would open the door for further gains later this week. Regardless, trading the USD/CHF is pointless, until and unless the EUR/CHF starts to move substantially; instead, traders should focus opportunities in the EUR/USD, which has been moving directly opposite to the Swissie and offers lower spreads and better liquidity.

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3tbd
Resistance 2tbd
Resistance 1.9800Round handle resistance
Current Price.9756
Support 1.9698Monthly R1 Pivot
Support 2.9600Round handle support
Support 3tbd
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USD/CAD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
At weekly lows as rates finally break from 1.0200 round handle. Room down to 1.0100 if bears remain in control
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?Bearish Marubozu Candle - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?A Marubozu candle is formed when prices open very near to one extreme of the candle and close very near the other extreme. Marubozu candles represent strong momentum in a given direction.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

The USD/CAD rolled over in this morning’s early European session, suggesting that the bears may be control of the first major move of the week. The pair is currently carving out a Bearish Engulfing Candle on the 4hr chart, showing strong selling pressure and a likely continuation lower, pending the close of the candle. If the selling pressure holds up through today’s North American trading session, bears will be looking to press the unit down to previous / round handle support at 1.0100.  Stay tuned to FX360 and our daily Live Market Analysis webinars for any intraday updates or trade opportunities later today.

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3tbd
Resistance 21.0256Monthly Pivot
Resistance 11.0200Round handle resistance
Current Price1.0173
Support 11.0100Round handle support
Support 21.0050Previous resistance, now support
Support 3tbd
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AUD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Buy if AUD/USD pulls back to 1.0215, stop at 1.0150, target at 1.0295
What is the trend?Up
What is this pattern?Bullish Marubozu Candle - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?A Marubozu candle is formed when prices open very near to one extreme of the candle and close very near the other extreme. Marubozu candles represent strong momentum in a given direction.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

The Aussie pulled back overnight before surging in today’s early European session. As of writing, the bulls have pushed the pair up to weekly highs, and are currently putting in a Bullish Marubozu Candle on the 4hr chart. These signals suggest that the Aussie may be on its way to retest last week’s highs near 1.0300.

To take advantage of a continuation higher, traders could set a limit buy at 1.0215 (near previous-resistance-turned-support from yesterday) with a stop at 1.0150 (under this week’s low) and a target at 1.0295 (just ahead of converging previous / round handle resistance at 1.0300). This trade would be invalidated if not triggered by the end of today’s North American session (17:00 Eastern, 21:00 GMT).

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3tbd
Resistance 2tbd
Resistance 11.0300Previous resistance
Current Price1.0230
Support 11.0200Round handle support
Support 21.0100Round handle support
Support 31.0025Monthly Pivot
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NZD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Rallying, but key psychological resistance looms at .8000. Break through this barrier would quickly target .8060
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?Bullish Marubozu Candle - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?A Marubozu candle is formed when prices open very near to one extreme of the candle and close very near the other extreme. Marubozu candles represent strong momentum in a given direction.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

The Kiwi also bounced to weekly highs in today’s early European session. In its case though, a key level of resistance looms just over current market rates. The key .8000 round handle may put a cap on any intraday rallies that emerge, despite a Bullish Marubozu Candle in progress. A break above the .8000 level would open the door for further gains toward last week’s highs at .8060. Stay tuned to FX360 and our daily Live Market Analysis webinars for any intraday updates or trade opportunities later today.

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3tbd
Resistance 2.8060Previous resistance
Resistance 1.8000Round handle resistance
Current Price.7977
Support 1.7900Round handle support
Support 2.7850Previous support
Support 3tbd
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NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.


The information, including Commentary and Trade Ideas, provided on FX360.com should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research which should be performed before making your investment decisions. Global Futures & Forex, Ltd. (“GFT Markets”) and FX360.com is merely providing this information for your general information. The information and opinions presented do not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. Any projections or views of the market provided by FX360.com may not prove to be accurate.

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TRADE IDEAS

  • Trades to Watch
  • Trades in Progress
currency trade idea
USD/CAD
Medium term



 Buy Buy at 1.0230
Stop at 1.0195
Target at 1.0275
currency trade idea
GBP/JPY
Medium term
Opened 5/16/2013
 Sell Short from 156.6000
Stop at 157.4
Target at 155.1
These are hypothetical trades and should not be relied upon as a substitute for independent research.

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