CURRENCYCURRENT BIASPOTENTIAL STRATEGY
EUR/USD (Medium Term)
Bought EUR/USD at 1.2467. Stop at 1.2064. Profit target at 1.3036.
GBP/USD (Medium Term)
Watch for a new opportunity to emerge.
USD/JPY (Medium Term)
Watch for a pattern that would allow us to go long near the bullish trend line.
USD/CHF (Medium Term)
Watch for a new opportunity to emerge.
USD/CAD (Medium Term)
Watch for a larger pullback now that point Z has been broken.
AUD/USD (Medium Term)
Watch for a new opportunity to emerge.
NZD/USD (Medium Term)
Watch to see which confirmed trend line holds and which one breaks.

Bradley W. Gareiss

Technical Analyst, GFT

  • EUR/USD
  • GBP/USD
  • USD/JPY
  • USD/CHF
  • USD/CAD
  • AUD/USD
  • NZD/USD
EUR/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Bought EUR/USD at 1.2467. Stop at 1.2064. Profit target at 1.3036.
What is the trend?Up
What is this pattern?Bullish Gartley - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?Multiple levels of support converged near our buy entry at 1.2476.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?N/A
Reason for Strategy

We have been watching a general version of the pattern on the EUR/USD Weekly Chart for a long time.  The pair has finally dropped all the way to long term support at 1.2467.  Three levels of support converge near this area: 78.6% of 01, 161.8% of AB, and 1A=BC.

Although the trade idea has already entered, it is still possible to enter at this point if the pair drops back to 1.2467.

Trade Invalidation
N/A
Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3N/AN/A
Resistance 2Bearish trend lineSee Daily Chart
Resistance 11.303638.2% of BC (estimated until point C definitively establishes itself)
Current Price1.2280
Support 11.2467Strong support on the Weekly Chart
Support 21.1876Point 0 on the Weekly Chart
Support 3N/AN/A
  • Weekly Chart - Bought EUR/USD at 1.2467.
  • Daily Chart - 1.3000 support has broken; bearish trend line becomes focus if the pair rallies.
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GBP/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Watch for a new opportunity to emerge.
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?No trade.
Reason for Strategy
The broken dotted trend line on the GBP/USD 4hr Chart has continued to provide strong resistance.  Broken support frequently becomes new resistance, so this isn't an unusual occurrence.  The difference today is that the recent drop broke below the circled significant low 1.5484.  Although the pair ultimately closed just above this level, the break below suggests that a new downtrend could begin next week.  The start of next week will be crucial because a break lower suggests a new downtrend while a break up could suggest that the 1.5484 level held to form a double bottom.  
Trade Invalidation
No trade.
Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3N/AN/A
Resistance 2N/AN/A
Resistance 1Broken trend linesSee 4hr Chart
Current Price1.5491
Support 11.5330General support on the Weekly Chart
Support 2N/AN/A
Support 3N/AN/A
  • Weekly Chart - 1.5330 has continually generated strong support in the past.
  • 4hr Chart - Will we continue to see some resistance at the dotted trend line And how will the pair behave early next week in relation to the low at 1.5484.
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USD/JPY (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Watch for a pattern that would allow us to go long near the bullish trend line.
What is the trend?Up
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?No trade.
Reason for Strategy
We have removed one of the previous day's USD/JPY 4hr Chart bullish trend lines so that only the valid bullish trend line remains.  The trend line had another successful test today, which only makes it more obvious that this is the trend line to watch.  Therefore, we will watch for short term bullish patterns that would allow us to go long near this trend line.
Trade Invalidation
No trade.
Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 381.6861.8% of YZ on the Daily Chart
Resistance 280.9150% of YZ on the Daily Chart
Resistance 181.1538.2% of YZ on the Daily Chart
Current Price79.65
Support 1Bullish trend lineSee 4hr Chart
Support 2Broken trend lineSee Daily Chart
Support 3N/AN/A
  • Daily Chart - Will 38.2% halt the rally generated by the broken trend line?
  • 4hr Chart - Bullish trend line.
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USD/CHF (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Watch for a new opportunity to emerge.
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?No trade.
Reason for Strategy
The USD/CHF rallied for the second straight day due to news related reasons (ECB cut and NFP).  Now the pair is testing point Y on the 8hr Chart and point A on the Daily Chart (also 127.2% of 01), although there is no specific action we will take at this test.  This test will be critical in determining next week's general bias for this pair.  A break up would be bullish, the point holding would be bearish.
Trade Invalidation
No trade.
Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 30.9987161.8% of YZ on the 8hr Chart
Resistance 20.9866127.2% of YZ on the 8hr Chart
Resistance 10.9771Point Y on the 8hr Chart/127.2% of 01 on the Daily Chart
Current Price0.9773
Support 10.945038.2% of 1A on the Daily Chart
Support 20.935150% of 1A on the Daily Chart
Support 30.925161.8% of 1A on the Daily Chart
  • Daily Chart - Will 38.2% of 1A provide support again?
  • 8hr Chart - Will resistance at point Y hold?
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USD/CAD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Watch for a larger pullback now that point Z has been broken.
What is the trend?Down
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?No trade.
Reason for Strategy

The USD/CAD decisively dropped below point Z .  This sharp move suggests that the pair could see lower lows.  We will be watching for a brief recovered rally that would provide a short opportunity within this move, which may be currently taking place.  However, there is no pattern so we will stay on the sidelines for now.

Trade Invalidation
No trade.
Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 31.033661.8% of YZ on the 4hr Chart
Resistance 21.030250% of YZ on the 4hr Chart
Resistance 1Point Z (broken support as new resistance)See 4hr Chart
Current Price1.0191
Support 1Broken trend lineSee Daily Chart
Support 2N/AN/A
Support 3N/AN/A
  • Daily Chart - Strong support off of the broken trend line has led to a very sharp rally.
  • 4hr Chart - Break below point Z suggests lower prices.
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AUD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Watch for a new opportunity to emerge.
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?No trade.
Reason for Strategy
A possible bullish trend line is emerging on the AUD/USD 8hr Chart.  However, the trend line cannot be confirmed until there is a successful third test.  Meanwhile, the pair is still well above strong support at 78.6% of 1A.  Otherwise, we will watch for something more useful to emerge.
Trade Invalidation
No trade.
Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3N/AN/A
Resistance 21.1080Point 0 on the Weekly Chart
Resistance 11.071778.6% of 01 on the Weekly Chart
Current Price1.0209
Support 1Possible bullish trend lineSee 8hr Chart
Support 20.970178.6% of 1A on the Weekly Chart
Support 30.9387Point 1 on the Weekly Chart
  • Weekly Chart - 78.6% of 1A is still providing support.
  • 8hr Chart - Possible bullish trend line.
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NZD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Watch to see which confirmed trend line holds and which one breaks.
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?No trade.
Reason for Strategy
A bearish trend line has emerged on the NZD/USD Daily Chart, and a bullish trend line has emerged on the 8hr Chart.  This is a great example of how multiple trends can develop within the same market.  In this case, even the time frame is similar.  One of the trend lines must break early next week since the trend lines intersect soon.  Therefore, we will watch for patterns that allow us to trade at the trend line that ultimately survives.
Trade Invalidation
No trade.
Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3N/AN/A
Resistance 2N/AN/A
Resistance 1Bearish trend lineSee Daily Chart
Current Price0.7975
Support 1Bullish trend lineSee 8hr Chart
Support 2N/AN/A
Support 3N/AN/A
  • Daily Chart - Bearish trend line.
  • 8hr Chart - Bullish trend line.
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TRADE IDEAS

  • Trades to Watch
  • Trades in Progress
currency trade idea
USD/CAD
Medium term



 Buy Buy at 1.0225
Stop at 1.0195
Target at 1.0285
currency trade idea
GBP/JPY
Medium term
Opened 5/16/2013
 Sell Short from 156.6000
Stop at 156.6
Target at 155.1
These are hypothetical trades and should not be relied upon as a substitute for independent research.

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