CURRENCYCURRENT BIASPOTENTIAL STRATEGY
EUR/USD (Short Term)
Consolidating in lower 1.25s, room down to 1.2500 if today's lows are broken
GBP/USD (Short Term)
Holding above 1.5600 support for now, watching for signs of a bounce
USD/JPY (Short Term)
Surge reaches 80.50 resistance before slowing, watching for potential pullback to 80.00 today
USD/CHF (Short Term)
Sharp rally continues, next target for bulls at .9625 resistance
USD/CAD (Short Term)
Buy if USD/CAD breaks above 1.0307, stop at 1.0267, target at 1.0347
AUD/USD (Short Term)
Key psychological support at 1.00, see full report for more details.
NZD/USD (Short Term)
Yesterday's trade stopped out as bullish trend line fails to provide support, now consolidating below .7900.
  • EUR/USD
  • GBP/USD
  • USD/JPY
  • USD/CHF
  • USD/CAD
  • AUD/USD
  • NZD/USD
EUR/USD (Intraday Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Consolidating in lower 1.25s, room down to 1.2500 if today's lows are broken
What is the trend?Down
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

The EUR/USD collapsed yesterday on general risk off sentiment around the widely-rumored comprehensive bank credit rating cut by Moody’s. The pair quickly broke through Monthly Pivot support at 1.2651 and fell all the way down to the mid-1.2500s before finding a modicum of support overnight. For the rest of the day, we will watch for a break below today’s low to signal a quick run down to key psychological support at 1.2500. Stay tuned to FX360 and our daily Live Market Analysis webinars for any intraday updates or specific trade opportunities later today.

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3tbd
Resistance 21.2700Round handle resistance
Resistance 11.2651Monthly Pivot
Current Price1.2530
Support 11.2500Round handle support
Support 21.2440Previous support
Support 3tbd
GBP/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Holding above 1.5600 support for now, watching for signs of a bounce
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

The GBP/USD followed the EUR/USD lower, breaking below monthly pivot support before the selling pressure stalled near key previous-resistance-turned-support at 1.5600. Overall, the Pound is showing relative strength against its closely correlated neighbor to the south, so traders may want to focus buying opportunities in the GBP/USD instead of the beleaguered euro. Nevertheless, we will look for clearer signs of a potential bounce before trading the unit in either direction.

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3tbd
Resistance 21.5770Previous resistance
Resistance 11.5660Monthly Pivot
Current Price1.5600
Support 11.5600Previous resistance, now support
Support 21.5500Round handle support
Support 3tbd
USD/JPY (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Surge reaches 80.50 resistance before slowing, watching for potential pullback to 80.00 today
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?Bearish Pin Candle - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?A Bearish Pin (Pinnochio) candle, or inverted hammer, is formed when prices rally within the candle before sellers step in and push prices back down to close near the open. It suggests the potential for a bearish continuation if the low of the candle is broken.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

The USD/JPY continued its recent surge yesterday, with rates staging a run up to key resistance at 80.50, a level highlighted in yesterday’s Candlestick Daily report. Upon reaching this level though, the USD/JPY carved out a Bearish Pin Candle on the 4hr chart, indicating a shift from buying to selling pressure and foreshadowing a potential pullback over today’s North American session. Any pullbacks that do emerge are likely to find a floor near key psychological support at 80.00, which also converges with the Monthly R1 pivot at 79.96.

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3tbd
Resistance 2tbd
Resistance 180.50Previous resistance
Current Price80.40
Support 180.00Round handle support
Support 279.08Monthly Pivot
Support 3tbd
USD/CHF (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Sharp rally continues, next target for bulls at .9625 resistance
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

The USD/CHF surged yesterday on broad-based U.S. Dollar strength, but the momentum stalled overnight in the upper-.9500s. Further consolidation in this area would not be surprising, but if the bulls can wrest control of the market once again, a move up to previous resistance at .9625 is likely. Regardless, trading the USD/CHF is pointless, until and unless the EUR/CHF starts to move substantially; instead, traders should focus opportunities in the EUR/USD, which has been moving directly opposite to the Swissie and offers lower spreads and better liquidity.

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3tbd
Resistance 2tbd
Resistance 1.9625Previous resistance
Current Price.9580
Support 1.9504Monthly Pivot
Support 2tbd
Support 3tbd
USD/CAD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Buy if USD/CAD breaks above 1.0307, stop at 1.0267, target at 1.0347
What is the trend?Up
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

Not surprisingly, the U.S. Dollar also surged against its Northern Neighbor, with the rally reaching a high near the round 1.0300 handle before stalling overnight. The sharp move higher, followed by a tight consolidation near the top of the range, has created a Bullish Flag pattern. This pattern indicates brief profit-taking after a sharp move higher, but suggests that a break above the highs would lead to uptrend resumption. With room up to previous resistance at 1.0350, this pattern could form a strong trading opportunity ahead of the weekend.

Specifically, traders could set a stop buy order at 1.0307 (above the round 1.0300 handle) with a stop at 1.0267 (under today’s low) and a target at 1.0347 (just ahead of previous resistance at 1.0350). 

Trade Invalidation
This trade would be invalidated by a drop below 1.0267 prior to entry, or if not triggered by the weekend.
Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3tbd
Resistance 21.0350Previous resistance
Resistance 11.0300Round handle resistance
Current Price1.0283
Support 11.0200Round handle support
Support 21.0100Round handle support
Support 3tbd
AUD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Key psychological support at 1.00, see full report for more details.
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

The Aussie fell sharply on yesterday’s risk-off sentiment, but has thus far been unable to break below key psychological support at parity (1.00). This psychological level may continue to put a floor under rates for the remainder of the day – with highly-anticipated meetings out of the EU this weekend, traders may decide to stay on the sidelines until next week.

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3tbd
Resistance 21.0225Previous support, now resistance
Resistance 11.0200Round handle resistance
Current Price1.0041
Support 11.0000Key psychological support
Support 2.9916Monthly Pivot
Support 3tbd
NZD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Yesterday's trade stopped out as bullish trend line fails to provide support, now consolidating below .7900.
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

The NZD/USD generally fell as well, breaking below strong bullish trend line support on the way to a 150-pip drop over an 8 hour period. Unfortunately, this drop quickly stopped out the buy trade highlighted in yesterday’s Candlestick Daily report, resulting in a quick 30-pip loss. On the bright side, we were able to exit the position relatively quickly and avoid the majority of the drop. Moving forward, further pullbacks are possible with a potential floor emerging near previous-resistance-turned-support at .7800.

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3tbd
Resistance 2.8000Key psychological resistance
Resistance 1.7900Round handle resistance
Current Price.7883
Support 1.7800Round handle support
Support 2.7712Monthly Pivot
Support 3tbd

DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. We generally encourage readers and clients not to risk more than 3% of their account on any single trade. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.

FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com

NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.


The information, including Commentary and Trade Ideas, provided on FX360.com should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research which should be performed before making your investment decisions. Global Futures & Forex, Ltd. (“GFT Markets”) and FX360.com is merely providing this information for your general information. The information and opinions presented do not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. Any projections or views of the market provided by FX360.com may not prove to be accurate.

The views of the authors and analysts are not necessarily those of GFT Markets, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com. GFT Markets and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
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TRADE IDEAS

  • Trades to Watch
  • Trades in Progress
There are currently no trades to watch.
currency trade idea
AUD/USD
Medium term
Opened 5/21/2013
Sell Short from 0.9816
Stop at 0.9816
Target at 0.973
These are hypothetical trades and should not be relied upon as a substitute for independent research.

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