CURRENCYCURRENT BIASPOTENTIAL STRATEGY
EUR/USD (Medium Term)
Bought EUR/USD at 1.2467. Stop at 1.2064. Profit target at 1.3036.
GBP/USD (Medium Term)
Watch for an opportunity to go long near the bullish trend line.
USD/JPY (Medium Term)
Buy USD/JPY at 78.14. Stop at 77.88. Profit target at 78.53.
USD/CHF (Medium Term)
Buy USD/CHF at 0.9355. Stop at 0.9288. Profit target at 0.9456.
USD/CAD (Medium Term)
Buy USD/CAD at 1.0123. Stop at 1.0072. Profit target at 1.0200.
AUD/USD (Medium Term)
Watch for an opportunity to go long near the bullish trend line.
NZD/USD (Medium Term)
Watch for an opportunity to go long near the bullish trend line.

Bradley W. Gareiss

Technical Analyst, GFT

  • EUR/USD
  • GBP/USD
  • USD/JPY
  • USD/CHF
  • USD/CAD
  • AUD/USD
  • NZD/USD
EUR/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Bought EUR/USD at 1.2467. Stop at 1.2064. Profit target at 1.3036.
What is the trend?Up
What is this pattern?Bullish Gartley - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?Multiple levels of support converged near our buy entry at 1.2476.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?N/A
Reason for Strategy

We have been watching a general version of the pattern on the EUR/USD Weekly Chart for a long time.  The pair has finally dropped all the way to long term support at 1.2467.  Three levels of support converge near this area: 78.6% of 01, 161.8% of AB, and 1A=BC.

Although the trade idea has already entered, it is still possible to enter at this point if the pair drops back to 1.2467.

Trade Invalidation
N/A
Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3N/AN/A
Resistance 2Bearish trend lineSee Daily Chart
Resistance 11.303638.2% of BC (estimated until point C definitively establishes itself)
Current Price1.2684
Support 11.2467Strong support on the Weekly Chart
Support 21.1876Point 0 on the Weekly Chart
Support 3N/AN/A
  • Weekly Chart - Bought EUR/USD at 1.2467.
  • Daily Chart - 1.3000 support has broken; bearish trend line becomes focus.
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GBP/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Watch for an opportunity to go long near the bullish trend line.
What is the trend?Up
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?No trade.
Reason for Strategy
A bullish trend line has emerged on the GBP/USD 4hr Chart.  The trend line has four solid points of contact and two pierced points of contact that held, so we will still focus on watching for a pattern that would allow us to go long near the trend line.  The trend line is further strengthened because the trend line began at 1.5330, which is strong support on the Weekly Chart.
Trade Invalidation
No trade.
Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3N/AN/A
Resistance 2N/AN/A
Resistance 1N/AN/A
Current Price1.5723
Support 1Bullish trend lineSee 4hr Chart
Support 21.5330General support on the Weekly Chart
Support 3N/AN/A
  • Weekly Chart - 1.5330 has continually generated strong support in the past.
  • 4hr Chart - Bullish trend line.
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USD/JPY (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Buy USD/JPY at 78.14. Stop at 77.88. Profit target at 78.53.
What is the trend?Up
What is this pattern?Bullish Gartley - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?Multiple levels of support are converging near our long entry at 78.14
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?Support at the broken trend line on the Daily Chart.
Reason for Strategy

Last week, we wrote about the possibility of support at the broken bearish trend line on the USD/JPY Daily Chart.  At this point, there has been some minor support at the broken trend line.  This rally has led to the formation of a bullish pattern.  Furthermore, this pattern would reach our entry at the broken trend line.  Therefore, this pattern provides us with a specific trade idea that allows us to test the thesis that the broken trend line could provide strong support.  The bullish pattern is forming on the USD/JPY 4hr Chart that would allow us to go long at 78.14.  Three separate levels of support are converging near our entry: 78.6% of 01, 161.8% of AB, and 1A=BC.

Trade Invalidation
The trade idea would be invalid if the pair rallies to 79.34 before reaching our entry.
Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3N/AN/A
Resistance 2N/AN/A
Resistance 1N/AN/A
Current Price78.90
Support 178.14Bullish Gartley support
Support 2Broken trend lineSee Daily Chart
Support 3N/AN/A
  • Daily Chart - Trade idea would enter near the broken trend line.
  • 4hr Chart - Buy USD/JPY at 78.14.
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USD/CHF (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Buy USD/CHF at 0.9355. Stop at 0.9288. Profit target at 0.9456.
What is the trend?Up
What is this pattern?Bullish Gartley - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?Multiple levels of support are converging near our long entry at 0.9355.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?General uptrend on the Weekly Chart.
Reason for Strategy
A bullish pattern is forming on the USD/CHF Daily Chart that would allow us to go long at 0.9355.  Three separate levels of support are converging near our entry: 50% of 01, 161.8% of AB, and 1A=BC.  Although the pattern doesn't enter at a specific bullish trend line, it does enter within the general uptrend on the Weekly Chart.
Trade Invalidation
The trade idea would be invalid if the pair rises above 0.9660 before reaching our entry.
Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3N/AN/A
Resistance 2N/AN/A
Resistance 1N/AN/A
Current Price0.9456
Support 10.9506Strong Gartley support
Support 2N/AN/A
Support 3N/AN/A
  • Weekly Chart - General uptrend.
  • Daily Chart - Buy USD/CHF at 0.9355.
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USD/CAD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Buy USD/CAD at 1.0123. Stop at 1.0072. Profit target at 1.0200.
What is the trend?Up
What is this pattern?Bullish Gartley - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?Multiple levels of support are converging near our entry at 1.0123.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?Uptrend generated by the trend line breakout on the Daily Chart.
Reason for Strategy
A bullish pattern is forming on the USD/CAD 8hr Chart that would allow us to go long at 1.0123.  Three separate levels of support are converging near our entry: 50% of 01, 161.8% of AB, and 1A=BC.  Although the pattern doesn't enter at a specific bullish trend line, it does enter within the sharp move up that was created by the broken bearish trend line on the Daily Chart.
Trade Invalidation
The trade idea would be invalid if the pair rises to 1.0365 before reaching our entry.
Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3N/AN/A
Resistance 2N/AN/A
Resistance 1N/AN/A
Current Price1.0174
Support 11.0123Strong Gartley support
Support 2Broken trend lineSee Daily Chart
Support 3N/AN/A
  • Daily Chart - Strong support off of the broken trend line has led to a very sharp rally.
  • 8hr Chart - Buy USD/CAD at 1.0123.
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AUD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Watch for an opportunity to go long near the bullish trend line.
What is the trend?Up
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?No trade.
Reason for Strategy
The bullish trend line on the AUD/USD 2hr Chart isn't perfect, but it is still the best formation we have at the moment.  Therefore, we will watch for a bullish pattern to form that would allow us to go long near the trend line.  Ideally, there will be another perfect test of the trend line before a pattern develops, but will just have to play the hand we're dealt.  The basis for the trend line is strengthened due to the support seen at 78.6% of 1A on the Weekly Chart. 
Trade Invalidation
No trade.
Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3N/AN/A
Resistance 21.1080Point 0 on the Weekly Chart
Resistance 11.071778.6% of 01 on the Weekly Chart
Current Price1.0184
Support 1Bullish trend lineSee 2hr Chart
Support 20.971078.6% of 1A on the Weekly Chart
Support 30.9387Point 1 on the Weekly Chart
  • Weekly Chart - 78.6% of 1A is still providing support.
  • 2hr Chart - Bullish trend line.
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NZD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Watch for an opportunity to go long near the bullish trend line.
What is the trend?Up
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?No trade.
Reason for Strategy
A bullish trend line has emerged on the NZD/USD 4hr Chart.  There are now four points of contact on the trend line, which make that level more important that general support at 0.7457.  The pair is now facing a fifth test at the trend line.  Although the test has breached the trend line, the pair quickly rallied back above it.  Therefore, the trend line could still hold if the pair rallies.  If the trend line holds, we will continue to watch for patterns that allow us to go long near the trend line.
Trade Invalidation
No trade.
Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3N/AN/A
Resistance 2N/AN/A
Resistance 1N/AN/A
Current Price0.7978
Support 1Bullish trend lineSee 4hr Chart
Support 20.7457Two significant lows on the 4hr Chart
Support 30.7370Significant low on the Daily Chart
  • Daily Chart - 0.7370 may provide support.
  • 4hr Chart - Bullish trend line.
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TRADE IDEAS

  • Trades to Watch
  • Trades in Progress
currency trade idea
USD/CAD
Medium term



 Buy Buy at 1.0230
Stop at 1.0195
Target at 1.0275
currency trade idea
GBP/JPY
Medium term
Opened 5/16/2013
 Sell Short from 156.6000
Stop at 157.4
Target at 155.1
These are hypothetical trades and should not be relied upon as a substitute for independent research.

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