CURRENCYCURRENT BIASPOTENTIAL STRATEGY
EUR/USD (Short Term)
Consolidation continues above 1.3200 round handle, see full report for more details
GBP/USD (Short Term)
Trade in Progress: Sold GBP/USD at 1.5785, STOP ADJUSTED TO 1.5818, target at 1.5670.
USD/JPY (Short Term)
Rally continues to 7-month highs above .8000, room for continued rallies over the rest of the week.
USD/CHF (Short Term)
Continues to scrape along .9100 support in lackluster trade, see full report for more details
USD/CAD (Short Term)
Near-term bullish channel guiding rates higher, resistance eyed at parity (1.00), 1.0035
AUD/USD (Short Term)
Testing critical long-term support at 1.0640, break below would signal end of 10-week uptrend, potential for further drops for the rest of the week
NZD/USD (Short Term)
Sell off continues, but rate approaching minor support at .8300. A break below this floor would pave the road for further drops to .8240 support

Matthew Weller

Technical Analyst, GFT

  • EUR/USD
  • GBP/USD
  • USD/JPY
  • USD/CHF
  • USD/CAD
  • AUD/USD
  • NZD/USD
EUR/USD (Intraday Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Consolidation continues above 1.3200 round handle, see full report for more details
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?Bearish Engulfing Candle - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?A Bearish Engulfing candle is formed when the candle breaks above the high of the previous time period before sellers step in and push rates down to close below the low of the previous time period. It indicates that the sellers have wrested control of the market from the buyers.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

Trade in the EUR/USD stagnated over the past 24 hours has rates continued to consolidate above 1.3200 round handle resistance. Traders continued to weigh the impact and implications of the Greek debt deal, and the recent price action indicates that a verdict has not yet been reached. From a candlestick perspective, a recently formed Bearish Engulfing Candle indicates that the bears have gained the upper hand, but key support at 1.3200 may put a floor under any drops over the course of the day. If rates drop below this area, it would open up the door for continued euro weakness toward 1.3100.

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3tbd
Resistance 2tbd
Resistance 11.3314Monthly R1 Pivot
Current Price1.3233
Support 11.3200Round handle support
Support 21.3100Round handle support
Support 31.2969Monthly Pivot
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GBP/USD (Intraday Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Trade in Progress: Sold GBP/USD at 1.5785, STOP ADJUSTED TO 1.5818, target at 1.5670.
What is the trend?Down
What is this pattern?Bearish Marubozu Candle - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?A Marubozu candle is formed when prices open very near to one extreme of the candle and close very near the other extreme. Marubozu candles represent strong momentum in a given direction.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

The GBP/USD fell sharply during today’s early European session as dovish BOE minutes showed a push for larger stimulus among policymakers. The 100 pip drop this morning has benefitted our short trade from yesterday’s Candlestick Daily report, and rates are now approaching our target near last week’s lows at 1.5670. Given the strong selloff, any significant bullish reversals would be a sign that caution is warranted, and thus, it would be prudent to tighten the stop at this point.

Specifically, traders could look to lower the stop to 1.5818 (above today’s Asian session high) to substantially reduce the risk on the trade. Meanwhile, we will continue to look for drops down to the profit target at 1.5670 over the course of the day.

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3tbd
Resistance 21.5937Monthly R1 Pivot
Resistance 11.5885Previous resistance
Current Price1.5689
Support 11.5650Previous support
Support 21.5600Round handle support
Support 3tbd
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USD/JPY (Intraday Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Rally continues to 7-month highs above .8000, room for continued rallies over the rest of the week.
What is the trend?Up
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

The USD/JPY resumed its uptrend yesterday, surging above key resistance at the monthly R3 pivot (79.77) to new 7-month highs above .8000. Yesterday’s short trade was never triggered and is now invalidated as rates have broken above near-term resistance. For the rest of the day, the bias will remain bullish for further rallies, with no significant levels of previous resistance until .8150 (July 2011 high). Stay tuned to FX360 and our daily Live Market Analysis webinars for any specific trade opportunities to take advantage of the ongoing USD/JPY surge.

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3tbd
Resistance 281.50Previous resistance
Resistance 181.00Round handle resistance
Current Price80.21
Support 180.00Round handle support
Support 279.77Monthly R3 Pivot
Support 379.02Monthly R2 Pivot
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USD/CHF (Intraday Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Continues to scrape along .9100 support in lackluster trade, see full report for more details
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?Bullish Engulfing Candle - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?A Bullish Engulfing candle is formed when the candle breaks below the low of the previous time period before buyers step in and push rates up to close above the high of the previous time period. It indicates that the buyers have wrested control of the market from the seller.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

The USD/CHF has continued to scrape along key .9100 support over the past 24 hours. A recent Bullish Engulfing Candle signals the potential for a rally to emerge over the course of the day, but the recent lackluster trade may cause any rallies to peter out ahead of yesterday’s high near .9150. However, traders should note that this pair has lately been trading as the inverse of the EUR/USD, so Swissie traders should check for key support and resistance levels in the Euro before placing any trades.

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3.9312Monthly Pivot
Resistance 2.9300Round handle
Resistance 1.9200Round handle
Current Price.9116
Support 1.9100Round handle support
Support 2.9029Monthly S1 Pivot
Support 3.9000Key psychological support
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USD/CAD (Intraday Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Near-term bullish channel guiding rates higher, resistance eyed at parity (1.00), 1.0035
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

The USD/CAD has continued its bounce after gapping lower to open this range, and is once again in the middle of the longer-term consolidation range from .9925 to 1.0035. The pair has clearly been guided higher by a near-term bullish channel over the past 3 days, and as long as this channel remains intact, further upside will be favored. Resistance is likely to emerge at the psychologically significant parity (1.00) level or previous resistance near 1.0035.

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3tbd
Resistance 21.0070Previous resistance
Resistance 11.0035Previous resistance
Current Price.9973
Support 1.9925Previous support
Support 2.9895Monthly S1 Pivot
Support 3tbd
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AUD/USD (Intraday Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Testing critical long-term support at 1.0640, break below would signal end of 10-week uptrend, potential for further drops for the rest of the week
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?Bearish Marubozu Candle - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?A Marubozu candle is formed when prices open very near to one extreme of the candle and close very near the other extreme. Marubozu candles represent strong momentum in a given direction.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

The AUD/USD has also seen a clear trend emerge this week, in this case to the downside. As of writing, the pair is testing critical previous support at 1.0640, and a conclusive break below this area would suggest that the 10-week uptrend has come to an end. With rates testing such a critical medium-term support level, it’s likely we will remain on the sidelines for the rest of the day, but a confirmed drop and daily close below 1.0640 would turn the bias bearish for the rest of the week, and may present selling opportunities to target a retracement of the recent rally.

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3tbd
Resistance 21.0807Monthly R1 Pivot
Resistance 11.0775Previous resistance
Current Price1.0642
Support 11.0640Previous support
Support 21.0500Key psychological support
Support 3tbd
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NZD/USD (Intraday Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Sell off continues, but rate approaching minor support at .8300. A break below this floor would pave the road for further drops to .8240 support
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?Bearish Marubozu Candle - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?A Marubozu candle is formed when prices open very near to one extreme of the candle and close very near the other extreme. Marubozu candles represent strong momentum in a given direction.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

Like its antipodean brother the Aussie, the Kiwi has also sold off consistently this week. In the case of the NZD/USD, rates are currently testing minor support at .8300. However, a recent Bearish Marubozu Candle indicates strongly bearish momentum and points to a higher probability that this level will be broken. If .8300 support fails, continued drops toward .8240 will be favored. Stay tuned to FX360 and our daily Live Market Analysis webinars for short-term trade opportunities to take advantage if the .8300 floor falls.

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3tbd
Resistance 2.8435Monthly R1 Pivot
Resistance 1.8420Previous resistance
Current Price.8316
Support 1.8300Round handle support
Support 2.8240Previous support
Support 3tbd
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DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. We generally encourage readers and clients not to risk more than 3% of their account on any single trade. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.

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NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.


The information, including Commentary and Trade Ideas, provided on FX360.com should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research which should be performed before making your investment decisions. Global Futures & Forex, Ltd. (“GFT Markets”) and FX360.com is merely providing this information for your general information. The information and opinions presented do not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. Any projections or views of the market provided by FX360.com may not prove to be accurate.

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TRADE IDEAS

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currency trade idea
AUD/USD
Medium term
Opened 5/21/2013
 Sell Short from 0.9816
Stop at 0.9816
Target at 0.973
These are hypothetical trades and should not be relied upon as a substitute for independent research.

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