CURRENCYCURRENT BIASPOTENTIAL STRATEGY
EUR/USD (Medium Term)
Wait for triangle breakout to determine near term bias.
GBP/USD (Medium Term)
Buy GBP/USD at 1.5702. Stop at 1.5676. Profit target at 1.5742.
USD/JPY (Medium Term)
Watch for a new opportunity to emerge; a drop below 75.50 would be very bearish.
USD/CHF (Medium Term)
Watch for a new opportunity to emerge.
USD/CAD (Medium Term)
Watch for a new opportunity to go short near either bearish trend line.
AUD/USD (Medium Term)
Watch for a new opportunity to go long near either bullish trend line.
NZD/USD (Medium Term)
Watch for a new opportunity to go long near either bullish trend line.
  • EUR/USD
  • GBP/USD
  • USD/JPY
  • USD/CHF
  • USD/CAD
  • AUD/USD
  • NZD/USD
EUR/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait for triangle breakout to determine near term bias.
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?No trade.
Reason for Strategy
A strong triangle has emerged on the EUR/USD 4hr Chart.  The triangle consists of a bullish trend line with four points of a contact and a bearish trend line with three points of contact.  Each point of contract lines up perfectly with the triangle, which is rare.  The strength of each trend line suggests that the eventual break out will lead to a highly volatile move.  The triangle will be broken before the close of next week when the trend lines converge.  At this point, it is not certain which way the pair will break, but that break will likely determine our near term bias.  While a fake out move is possible, the true break should be large enough to prevent the need to get a trade in right after the initial break out.  If the pair breaks down, it could test support at around 1.2500 on the Weekly Chart.  If the pair breaks up, then we will have to watch for a brand new formation, ideally one that would allow us to go long at the surviving bullish trend line.
Trade Invalidation
No trade.
Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3N/AN/A
Resistance 2N/AN/A
Resistance 1Top of triangleSee 4hr Chart
Current Price1.3156
Support 1Bottom of triangleSee 4hr Chart
Support 2~1.2500See Point D on Weekly Chart
Support 3N/AN/A
  • Weekly Chart - Long term bullish pattern emerging.
  • 4hr Chart - Strong triangle.
GBP/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Buy GBP/USD at 1.5702. Stop at 1.5676. Profit target at 1.5742.
What is the trend?Up
What is this pattern?Bullish Gartley - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?Multiple levels of support are converging near 1.5702.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?General uptrend.
Reason for Strategy

A bullish Gartley pattern is emerging on the GBP/USD int he wake of non farm payroll.  Despite the volatility created by NFP, the pair remained moving in a general uptrend.  The pattern wouldn't enter at a specific trend line, but the general uptrend is a good enough longer term reason to support the bullish idea.  The trade idea would also enter a significant low between X and A on the 4hr Chart.

Trade Invalidation
The trade idea would be invalid if the pair rises to 1.5835 before reaching our entry.
Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3N/AN/A
Resistance 2N/AN/A
Resistance 1N/AN/A
Current Price1.5812
Support 11.5702Bullish Gartley
Support 21.5330See Weekly Chart
Support 3N/AN/A
  • Weekly Chart - General support at 1.5330.
  • 4hr Chart - Bullish Gartley; buy at 1.5702.
USD/JPY (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Watch for a new opportunity to emerge; a drop below 75.50 would be very bearish.
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?No trade.
Reason for Strategy
The USD/JPY sharply rallied today after spending the entire week dropping.  The USD/JPY typically is the most independent of the major currency pairs, and today was no exception.  This was the only major that saw the dollar rally for the full day after non farm payroll was released.  This rally relieved downward pressure that threatened to push the pair to new all time lows.  The pair closed at 76.58, which is a critical level because the pair had seen three strong points of support near this level.  Those points have been circled on the Daily Chart, and the broken support could now create strong resistance.  Therefore, if the pair opens down, it could quickly test all time lows.  But if the pair opens up, then it is possible that the Friday rally was more substantial than a rally based on NFP. 
Trade Invalidation
No trade.
Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3N/AN/A
Resistance 2N/AN/A
Resistance 176.567Significant broken lows on the Daily Chart
Current Price76.58
Support 176.392Signficant low on the Weekly Chart
Support 275.563Significant low on the Daily Chart
Support 3N/AN/A
  • Weekly Chart - Will 76.392 see further support?
  • Daily Chart - Will the pair open below or above critical resistance?
USD/CHF (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Watch for a new opportunity to emerge.
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?No trade.
Reason for Strategy
The USD/CHF finished the week slightly above last weekend's open.  This slight rally stopped the streak of three straight week's down.  However, it is likely non farm payroll helped achieve this late rally.  If NFP had been negative, we probably would have seen the fourth straight week down.  Therefore, it would not be surprising to see a sharp move down on the open after the weekend.  A sharp move also could be expected after the open since the pair traded in a relatively narrow range, which is highlighted on the 4hr Chart. When a range becomes this narrow, it likely suggests that a break out will inevitable be relatively volatile.  
Trade Invalidation
No trade.
Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3N/AN/A
Resistance 2N/AN/A
Resistance 1Top of rangeSee 4hr Chart
Current Price0.9179
Support 1Bottom of rangeSee 4hr Chart
Support 2N/AN/A
Support 3N/AN/A
  • Weekly Chart - The pair scraped together a small rally to stop the streak of three straight weeks down.
  • 4hr Chart - Watch for high volatility when the pair breaks out of the range.
USD/CAD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Watch for a new opportunity to go short near either bearish trend line.
What is the trend?Down
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?No trade.
Reason for Strategy
The USD/CAD continued to sharply drop this week.  The drop accelerated faster than our bearish trend line, which actually resulted in the formation of a second bearish trend line.  Therefore, we will now watch for bearish trade opportunities at either trend line.  On the Daily Chart, the pair has continued to sharply drop after breaking below the longer term bullish trend line.
Trade Invalidation
No trade.
Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3Broken trend lineSee Daily Chart
Resistance 2Bearish trend line (dotted)See 8hr Chart
Resistance 1Bearish trend line (solid)See 8hr Chart
Current Price0.9932
Support 1N/AN/A
Support 2N/AN/A
Support 3N/AN/A
  • Daily Chart - The USD/CAD continues to drop below the broken trend line.
  • 8hr Chart - Two bearish trend lines.
AUD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Watch for a new opportunity to go long near either bullish trend line.
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?No trade.
Reason for Strategy

The AUD/USD continues to rally above the 8hr Chart bullish trend line.  In fact, the rally has accelerated and formed a second bullish trend line as well.  However, the rally has led to a test at 78.6% of XA on the Daily Chart.  Something has to give way shortly, and the surviving level (78.6 of XA or the bullish trend line) will help determine our near term bias.  Ideally, 78.6% of XA will push the pair down in the shape of a bullish pattern that would allow us to go long near either bullish trend line.

Trade Invalidation
No trade.
Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3N/AN/A
Resistance 21.1080100% of XA on the Daily Chart
Resistance 11.071778.6% of XA on the Daily Chart
Current Price1.0709
Support 1Bullish trend line (solid)See 8hr Chart
Support 2Bullish trend line (dotted)See 8hr Chart
Support 30.967978.6% of AB on the Daily Chart
  • Daily Chart - Will 78.6% of XA provide resistance?
  • 8hr Chart - Two bullish trend lines.
NZD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Watch for a new opportunity to go long near either bullish trend line.
What is the trend?Up
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?No trade.
Reason for Strategy

The NZD/USD has seen a perfect fourth test of the bullish trend line.  Unfortunately there was no pattern that allowed us to go long at this test, but it is still advantageous to have yet another successful test.  Now we have a very strong bullish trend line to work with.  Furthermore, the accelerating rally has created a second bullish trend line.  We will watch for a new bullish patterns to emerge that would allow us to go long near either bullish trend line. 

The pair has broken above point 61.8% of XA on the Weekly Chart, although that level could still hold on.  Regardless, it would be ideal if one of these resistance levels temporarily pushed the pair down in a bullish pattern that could allow us to go long near the bullish trend line.

Trade Invalidation
No trade.
Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 30.8842100% of XA on the Weekly Chart
Resistance 20.852778.6% of XA on the Weekly Chart
Resistance 10.828061.8% of XA on the Weekly Chart
Current Price0.8356
Support 1Bullish trend line (solid)See 8hr Chart
Support 2Bullish trend line (dotted)See 8hr Chart
Support 3N/AN/A
  • Weekly Chart - 61.8% of XA has been pierced.
  • 8hr Chart - Two bullish trend lines.

DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. We generally encourage readers and clients not to risk more than 3% of their account on any single trade. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.

FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com

NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.

CD01BK.036.103009


The information, including Commentary and Trade Ideas, provided on FX360.com should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research which should be performed before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading and FX360 .com is merely providing this information for your general information. The information and opinions presented do not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. Any projections or views of the market provided by FX360.com may not prove to be accurate.

The views of the authors and analysts are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

TRADE IDEAS

  • Trades to Watch
  • Trades in Progress
currency trade idea
GBP/CHF
Medium term



Buy Buy at 1.4766
Stop at 1.4703
Target at 1.4861
AUD/USD
Medium term



Sell Sell at .9839
Stop at 0.9865
Target at 0.9801
USD/JPY
Medium term



Sell Sell at 80.3800
Stop at 80.63
Target at 80
currency trade idea
EUR/JPY
Medium term
Opened 5/23/2012
Sell Short from 99.9000
Stop at 101.55
Target at 98.1
AUD/NZD
Medium term
Opened 5/21/2012
Sell Short from 1.2985
Stop at 1.307
Target at 1.2855
EUR/CHF
Long term
Opened 1/30/2012
Buy Long from 1.2055
Stop at 1.199
Target at 1.2225
These are hypothetical trades and should not be relied upon as a substitute for independent research.

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