CURRENCYCURRENT BIASPOTENTIAL STRATEGY
EUR/USD (Medium Term)
Watch for a new opportunity to emerge.
GBP/USD (Medium Term)
Watch for a new opportunity to go long near the bullish trend line.
USD/JPY (Medium Term)
Watch for a new opportunity to emerge; a drop below 75.50 would be very bearish.
USD/CHF (Medium Term)
Watch for a new opportunity to emerge.
USD/CAD (Medium Term)
Watch for a new opportunity to go short near the bearish trend line.
AUD/USD (Medium Term)
Watch for a new opportunity to go long near the bullish trend line.
NZD/USD (Medium Term)
Watch for a new opportunity to go long near the bullish trend line.
  • EUR/USD
  • GBP/USD
  • USD/JPY
  • USD/CHF
  • USD/CAD
  • AUD/USD
  • NZD/USD
EUR/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Watch for a new opportunity to emerge.
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?No trade.
Reason for Strategy
The EUR/USD broke below the bullish trend line on the 4hr Chart, so we no longer are watching for a short term bullish pattern.  In fact, we may watch for potential resistance at the bottom of the channel.  A longer term bullish pattern is emerging on the Weekly Chart.  It could take months to enter so we won't post it as a trade quite yet, but it is on the horizon.  Otherwise, we will watch for a new shorter term formation to emerge.
Trade Invalidation
No trade.
Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3N/AN/A
Resistance 2N/AN/A
Resistance 1Bottom of broken channelSee 4hr Chart
Current Price1.3169
Support 1~1.2500See Point D on Weekly Chart
Support 21.1876Point X on the Weekly Chart
Support 3N/AN/A
  • Weekly Chart - Long term bullish pattern emerging.
  • 4hr Chart - Broken bullish trend line.
GBP/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Watch for a new opportunity to go long near the bullish trend line.
What is the trend?Up
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?No trade.
Reason for Strategy

The GBP/USD has continued to rally above the bullish trend line on the 4hr Chart   The beginning of this trend line occurred near 1.5330, which has provided strong support several times on the Weekly Chart.  Therefore, we have a bullish bias for this pair, and we will watch for new bullish patterns that would allow us to go long near the trend line.

Trade Invalidation
No trade.
Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3N/AN/A
Resistance 2N/AN/A
Resistance 1N/AN/A
Current Price1.5844
Support 1Bullish trend lineSee 4hr Chart
Support 21.5330See Weekly Chart
Support 3N/AN/A
  • Weekly Chart - General support at 1.5330.
  • 4hr Chart - Bullish trend line.
USD/JPY (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Watch for a new opportunity to emerge; a drop below 75.50 would be very bearish.
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?No trade.
Reason for Strategy
The USD/JPY continued to drop after the weekend open, and 76.567 has been broken.  The pair is currently testing the significant low at 76.392.  If the pair continues to break below these lows, there could be a very sharp drop.  However, there is also a chance that one of these levels will provide support, especially if there is intervention.  Therefore, it is too early to watch for a continued drop, but a move below 75.50 would be very bearish.
Trade Invalidation
No trade.
Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3N/AN/A
Resistance 2N/AN/A
Resistance 1N/AN/A
Current Price76.18
Support 176.567Signficant low on the Daily Chart
Support 276.392Significant low on the Weekly Chart
Support 375.563Signifcant low on the Daily Chart
  • Weekly Chart - Will 76.392 see further support?
  • Daily Chart - Where will we see support?
USD/CHF (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Watch for a new opportunity to emerge.
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?No trade.
Reason for Strategy

The USD/CHF finished its third straight week down.  This has only happened one other time since the pair broke above the bearish trend line on the Weekly Chart.  The last time it happened, the pair rallied right back up and move was a brief pullback.  So, it is not surprising that we a small pullback early this week.  However, the pair has dropped again, and it has become possible that the pair could drop for a fourth consecutive week.

We also have drawn a bearish trend line on the 4hr Chart, but it didn't have a precise third point of contract.  Still, the trend line ultimately held so a new precise test at the trend line could bring it back into the picture.

Trade Invalidation
No trade.
Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3N/AN/A
Resistance 2N/AN/A
Resistance 1Possible bearish trend lineSee 4hr Chart
Current Price0.9146
Support 1Broken trend lineSee Weekly Chart
Support 2N/AN/A
Support 3N/AN/A
  • Weekly Chart - Three straight weeks down; will the pair rally this week?
  • 4hr Chart - Bearish trend line.
USD/CAD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Watch for a new opportunity to go short near the bearish trend line.
What is the trend?Down
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?No trade.
Reason for Strategy
The USD/CAD has seen resistance off of the broken bullish trend line on the Daily Chart.  It is not surprising to see broken support generate new resistance.  The drop from this point has led to the creation of a strong bearish trend line on the 8hr Chart.  The trend line already has three points of contact, so we will continue watching for patterns that would allow us to go short near the trend line.
Trade Invalidation
No trade.
Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 31.049378.6% of YZ on the Daily Chart
Resistance 2Broken trend lineSee Daily Chart
Resistance 1Bearish trend lineSee 8hr Chart
Current Price0.9977
Support 1N/AN/A
Support 2N/AN/A
Support 3N/AN/A
  • Daily Chart - The USD/CAD continues to drop below the broken trend line.
  • 8hr Chart - Bearish trend line.
AUD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Watch for a new opportunity to go long near the bullish trend line.
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?No trade.
Reason for Strategy

The AUD/USD continues to rally above the 8hr Chart bullish trend line.  However, the rally has no led to a test at 78.6% of XA on the Daily Chart.  Something has to give way shortly, and the surviving level (78.6 of XA or the bullish trend line) will help determine our near term bias.  Ideally, 78.6% of XA will push the pair down in the shape of a bullish pattern that would allow us to go long near the bullish trend line.

Trade Invalidation
No trade.
Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3N/AN/A
Resistance 21.1080100% of XA on the Daily Chart
Resistance 11.071778.6% of XA on the Daily Chart
Current Price1.0709
Support 1Bullish trend lineSee 8hr Chart
Support 20.967978.6% of AB on the Daily Chart
Support 30.9387100% of AB on the Daily Chart
  • Daily Chart - Will 78.6% of XA provide resistance?
  • 8hr Chart - Bullish trend line.
NZD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Watch for a new opportunity to go long near the bullish trend line.
What is the trend?Up
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?No trade.
Reason for Strategy

The NZD/USD has seen a perfect fourth test of the bullish trend line.  Unfortunately there was no pattern that allowed us to go long at this test, but it is still advantageous to have yet another successful test.  Now we have a very strong bullish trend line to work with.  We will watch for a new bullish patterns to emerge that would allow us to go long near the bullish trend line. 

The pair has broken above point 61.8% of XA on the Weekly Chart, although that level could still hold on.  Regardless, it would be ideal if one of these resistance levels temporarily pushed the pair down in a bullish pattern that could allow us to go long near the bullish trend line.

Trade Invalidation
No trade.
Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 30.8842100% of XA on the Weekly Chart
Resistance 20.852778.6% of XA on the Weekly Chart
Resistance 10.828061.8% of XA on the Weekly Chart
Current Price0.8323
Support 1Bullish trend lineSee 8hr Chart
Support 2N/AN/A
Support 3N/AN/A
  • Weekly Chart - 61.8% of XA has been pierced.
  • 8hr Chart - Bullish trend line.

DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. We generally encourage readers and clients not to risk more than 3% of their account on any single trade. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.

FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com

NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.

CD01BK.036.103009


The information, including Commentary and Trade Ideas, provided on FX360.com should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research which should be performed before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading and FX360 .com is merely providing this information for your general information. The information and opinions presented do not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. Any projections or views of the market provided by FX360.com may not prove to be accurate.

The views of the authors and analysts are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

TRADE IDEAS

  • Trades to Watch
  • Trades in Progress
currency trade idea
GBP/CHF
Medium term



Buy Buy at 1.4766
Stop at 1.4703
Target at 1.4861
AUD/USD
Medium term



Sell Sell at .9839
Stop at 0.9865
Target at 0.9801
USD/JPY
Medium term



Sell Sell at 80.3800
Stop at 80.63
Target at 80
currency trade idea
EUR/JPY
Medium term
Opened 5/23/2012
Sell Short from 99.9000
Stop at 101.55
Target at 98.1
AUD/NZD
Medium term
Opened 5/21/2012
Sell Short from 1.2985
Stop at 1.307
Target at 1.2855
EUR/CHF
Long term
Opened 1/30/2012
Buy Long from 1.2055
Stop at 1.199
Target at 1.2225
These are hypothetical trades and should not be relied upon as a substitute for independent research.

MARKET NEWS ALERTS

Receive daily commentary, technical analysis reports and potential strategies from Kathy Lien, Boris Schlossberg, David Morrision and their team of technical analysts.
  • Your first name:
  • Your last name:
Your email address:




Already getting alerts but don't have a FX360 account? Manage your subscriptions by creating an account now.

Already have an account? Manage your subscription here.

CENTRAL BANK RATES