CURRENCYCURRENT BIASPOTENTIAL STRATEGY
EUR/USD (Medium Term)
Watch for a new opportunity to emerge.
GBP/USD (Medium Term)
Watch for a new opportunity to go long near the bullish trend line.
USD/JPY (Medium Term)
Watch for a new opportunity to emerge.
USD/CHF (Medium Term)
Watch for a new opportunity to emerge.
USD/CAD (Medium Term)
Watch for a new opportunity to go short near the bearish trend line.
AUD/USD (Medium Term)
Watch for a new opportunity to go long near the bullish trend line.
NZD/USD (Medium Term)
Watch for an opportunity to go long near the bullish trend line.

Bradley W. Gareiss

Technical Analyst, GFT

  • EUR/USD
  • GBP/USD
  • USD/JPY
  • USD/CHF
  • USD/CAD
  • AUD/USD
  • NZD/USD
EUR/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Watch for a new opportunity to emerge.
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?No trade.
Reason for Strategy
The EUR/USD has continued to trade above our broken trend line after starting the week with a sharp rally.  It is possible that 61.8% of YZ could provide resistance because broken support frequently becomes new resistance.  Otherwise, we must watch for something brand new to develop since our other formations are currently no longer in play.
Trade Invalidation
No trade.
Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3N/AN/A
Resistance 2N/AN/A
Resistance 1N/AN/A
Current Price1.3100
Support 1Broken trend lineSee 8hr Chart
Support 21.253278.6% of YZ on the Weekly Chart
Support 31.1876100% of YZ on the Weekly Chart
  • Weekly Chart - Will 61.8% of YZ provide resistance after it failed to provide support?
  • 8hr Chart - Broken bearish trend line.
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GBP/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Watch for a new opportunity to go long near the bullish trend line.
What is the trend?Up
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?No trade.
Reason for Strategy

We have altered the bullish trend line on the 2hr Chart so that it fits the current price action.  This trend line is actually better than the one from the past two days since it isn't quite as steep.  The beginning of this trend line occurred near 1.5330, which has provided strong support several times on the Weekly Chart.  Therefore, we still have a bullish bias for this pair.

Trade Invalidation
No trade.
Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3N/AN/A
Resistance 2N/AN/A
Resistance 1N/AN/A
Current Price1.5654
Support 1Bullish trend lineSee 2hr Chart
Support 21.5330See Weekly Chart
Support 3N/AN/A
  • Weekly Chart - General support at 1.5330.
  • 2hr Chart - Bullish trend line.
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USD/JPY (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Watch for a new opportunity to emerge.
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?No trade.
Reason for Strategy
The USD/JPY rallied today after seeing strong support at 76.567.  This was largest rally the pair has seen since the last intervention.  Let's hope that these moves continue and that the price action finally returns to normal after nearly a year of little movement other than intervention based rallies.
Trade Invalidation
No trade.
Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3N/AN/A
Resistance 2N/AN/A
Resistance 1N/AN/A
Current Price77.67
Support 176.567Signficant low on the Daily Chart
Support 276.392Significant low on the Weekly Chart
Support 375.563Signifcant low on the Daily Chart
  • Weekly Chart - Will 76.392 see further support?
  • Daily Chart - 76.567 has provided strong support.
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USD/CHF (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Watch for a new opportunity to emerge.
What is the trend?Neutral
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?No trade.
Reason for Strategy
The bearish trend line on the USD/CHF 2hr Chart was breached, but the pair quickly feel back below the trend line.  This drop increases the odds that the pair will have three straight weeks down for the second time after breaking above the trend line on the Weekly Chart.  There isn't a really useful formation at this point, but another successful test at the bearish trend line would bring it back into play.  Otherwise, we will watch for something brand new to emerge.
Trade Invalidation
No trade.
Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3N/AN/A
Resistance 2N/AN/A
Resistance 1Bearish trend lineSee 2hr Chart
Current Price0.9215
Support 1Broken trend lineSee Weekly Chart
Support 2N/AN/A
Support 3N/AN/A
  • Weekly Chart - Broken trend line.
  • 2hr Chart - Breached bearish trend line.
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USD/CAD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Watch for a new opportunity to go short near the bearish trend line.
What is the trend?Down
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?No trade.
Reason for Strategy
The USD/CAD has seen resistance off of the broken bullish trend line on the Daily Chart.  It is not surprising to see broken support generate new resistance.  The drop from this point has led to the creation of a strong bearish trend line on the 8hr Chart.  The trend line already has three points of contact, so we will begin watching for patterns that would allow us to go short near the trend line.
Trade Invalidation
No trade.
Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 31.049378.6% of YZ on the Daily Chart
Resistance 2Broken trend lineSee Daily Chart
Resistance 1Bearish trend lineSee 8hr Chart
Current Price1.0044
Support 1N/AN/A
Support 2N/AN/A
Support 3N/AN/A
  • Daily Chart - Will the broken bullish trend line continue to generate resistance?
  • 8hr Chart - Bearish trend line.
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AUD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Watch for a new opportunity to go long near the bullish trend line.
What is the trend?Up
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?No trade.
Reason for Strategy

The AUD/USD broke through the third test of the bearish trend line on the Daily Chart, and actually generated new support after the break out.  Therefore, the focus will continue to be on the 8hr Chart bullish trend line.  A new bullish pattern may be in the early stages of developing, so tomorrow there may be a nice opportunity to go long near the trend line.

Trade Invalidation
No trade.
Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3N/AN/A
Resistance 21.1080100% of XA on the Daily Chart
Resistance 11.071778.6% of XA on the Daily Chart
Current Price1.0594
Support 1Bullish trend lineSee 8hr Chart
Support 20.967978.6% of AB on the Daily Chart
Support 30.9387100% of AB on the Daily Chart
  • Daily Chart - Broken bearish trend line.
  • 8hr Chart - Bullish trend line.
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NZD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Watch for an opportunity to go long near the bullish trend line.
What is the trend?Up
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?No trade.
Reason for Strategy

The NZD/USD has seen a perfect fourth test of the bullish trend line.  Unfortunately there was no pattern that allowed us to go long at this test, but it is still advantageous to have yet another successful test.  Now we have a very strong bullish trend line to work with.  We will watch for a new bullish patterns to emerge that would allow us to go long near the bullish trend line. 

Trade Invalidation
No trade.
Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3N/AN/A
Resistance 20.8241100% of XA on the Daily Chart
Resistance 10.805578.6% of XA on the Daily Chart
Current Price0.8169
Support 1Bullish trend lineSee 8hr Chart
Support 20.766461.8% of AB on the Daily Chart
Support 30.753578.6% of AB on the Daily Chart
  • Daily Chart - Will we see some resistance at 78.6% of XA?
  • 8hr Chart - Bullish trend line.
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DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. We generally encourage readers and clients not to risk more than 3% of their account on any single trade. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.

FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com

NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.

CD01BK.036.103009


The information, including Commentary and Trade Ideas, provided on FX360.com should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research which should be performed before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading and FX360 .com is merely providing this information for your general information. The information and opinions presented do not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. Any projections or views of the market provided by FX360.com may not prove to be accurate.

The views of the authors and analysts are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

TRADE IDEAS

  • Trades to Watch
  • Trades in Progress
currency trade idea
GBP/CHF
Medium term



 Buy Buy at 1.4766
Stop at 1.4703
Target at 1.4861
AUD/USD
Medium term



 Sell Sell at .9839
Stop at 0.9865
Target at 0.9801
USD/JPY
Medium term



 Sell Sell at 80.3800
Stop at 80.63
Target at 80
currency trade idea
EUR/JPY
Medium term
Opened 5/23/2012
 Sell Short from 99.9000
Stop at 101.55
Target at 98.1
AUD/NZD
Medium term
Opened 5/21/2012
 Sell Short from 1.2985
Stop at 1.307
Target at 1.2855
EUR/CHF
Long term
Opened 1/30/2012
 Buy Long from 1.2055
Stop at 1.199
Target at 1.2225
These are hypothetical trades and should not be relied upon as a substitute for independent research.

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