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Swing Technicals- GBP/USD Finally Approaching Short at 1.5032
Last updated 23 June 2010 05:56 PM ET (GMT -5)
| EUR/USD (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| GBP/USD (Medium Term) | | Sell GBP/USD at 1.5032. Stop at 1.5182. Profit target at 1.4806. |
| USD/JPY (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| USD/CHF (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| USD/CAD (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| AUD/USD (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| NZD/USD (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
EUR/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The EUR/USD channel looks less precise than ever. It is possible that this channel on the 2hr Chart is exerting little to no impact on the pair. However, I think this is the channel we will stick with for the time being. While this channel may not be perfect, it is better than nothing. The pair also is hovering near the significant low on the Weekly Chart (1.2328). At this point it isn't clear if that point is support or resistance, but for now we have to stay on the sidelines regardless.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 1.3510 | 50% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 1.3124 | 38.2% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Top of bullish channel | See 2hr Chart |
| Current Price | 1.2313 | |
| Support 1 | Bottom of bullish channel | See 2hr Chart |
| Support 2 | 1.1562 | 127.2% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 3 | 1.0588 | 161.8% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
- Weekly Chart - Is the significant low at 1.2328 now providing resistance or support?
- 2hr Chart - Weak bullish channel.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
GBP/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Sell GBP/USD at 1.5032. Stop at 1.5182. Profit target at 1.4806.
| What is the trend? | Down |
| What is this pattern? | Bearish Gartley - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | Converging Fibonacci levels provide strong resistance at point D. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | Bearish trend line on the Weekly Chart, significant highs near entry on the 8hr Chart. |
Reason for Strategy
A bearish Gartley is forming on the GBP/USD 8hr Chart. We have extended the CD leg to 127.2% of AB because of how rapidly the prices were moving up within the CD leg. Now the pair has stopped shooting up, but the extension still results in excellent price symmetry. The trade would enter near the bearish trend line on the Weekly Chart as well as two significant highs on the 8hr Chart. Overall, this is a very solid trade.
Trade Invalidation
The trade is invalid if the GBP/USD falls to 1.4735 before reaching our entry.
| Resistance 3 | Bearish trend line | See Weekly chart |
| Resistance 2 | Signficant highs | See 8hr Chart |
| Resistance 1 | 1.5032 | Bearish Gartley |
| Current Price | 1.4951 | |
| Support 1 | N/A | N/A |
| Support 2 | N/A | N/A |
| Support 3 | N/A | N/A |
- Weekly Chart - Trade would enter near bearish trend line.
- 8hr Chart - Bearish Gartley; sell at 1.5032.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USD/JPY (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
We have drawn a bearish channel on the USD/JPY 4hr Chart. The channel has nice symmetry on the top although there hasn't been much action on the bottom. The pair is now dropping near the bottom of the channel though, so we could see a telling test of this channel soon. While the pair has shown the type of action that normally works well within our patterns, nothing we can use has formed yet.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 91.30 | 50% of AB on the 8hr Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 90.93 | 38.2% of AB on the 8hr Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Top of bearish channel | See 4hr Chart |
| Current Price | 89.85 | |
| Support 1 | 89.80 | 78.6% of XA on the 8hr Chart |
| Support 2 | 88.96 | 100% of XA on the 8hr Chart |
| Support 3 | Bottom of bearish channel | See 4hr Chart |
- 8hr Chart - Will 78.6% of XA hold?
- 4hr Chart - Bearish channel.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USD/CHF (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
We have drawn a bearish channel on the USD/CHF 2hr Chart. When the channel is extended back, we see that the bottom of the channel previously provided resistance. This channel is beginning to look pretty ugly, and it is too bad nothing better is forming. Still, this is the best thing to watch for now. The Monthly Chart drop from the bearish trend line is pausing at 38.2% of YZ, but we won't take any action at this point.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 1.1452 | 61.8% of XA on the 4hr Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 1.1367 | 50% of YZ on the 4hr Chart |
| Resistance 1 | 1.1281 | 38.2% of XA on the 4hr Chart |
| Current Price | 1.1051 | |
| Support 1 | Top of bearish channel | See 4hr Chart |
| Support 2 | 1.1035 | 38.2% of YZ on the Monthly Chart |
| Support 3 | 1.0821 | 50% of YZ on the Monthly Chart |
- Monthly Chart - Bearish trend line.
- 4hr Chart - Ugly bearish channel that has been breached.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USD/CAD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
This pattern reacted before reaching our entry, so the trade is now off the table. Occasionally a pattern will look good in hindsight but never enter, and that is what happened here. Tomorrow we will go on to the next pattern, and hopefully something useful will emerge between now and then.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | N/A | N/A |
| Resistance 2 | N/A | N/A |
| Resistance 1 | N/A | N/A |
| Current Price | 1.0392 | |
| Support 1 | 1.0130 | Bullish Gartley |
| Support 2 | 0.9913 | 78.6% of YZ on the Monthly Chart |
| Support 3 | 0.9056 | 100% of YZ on the Monthly Chart |
- Monthly Chart - Possible support at 78.6% of YZ.
- 8hr Chart - Bullish Gartley never reached our entry before shooting up.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
AUD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The AUD/USD has now tested 161.8% of YZ. This test has moved the pair below the bullish channel on the 2hr Chart. The bottom of the broken channel has now provided resistance twice, which is fairly common. However, at this point there is no further action to take until something more useful emerges.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | Top of bullish channel | See 2hr Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 0.8839 | 161.8% of YZ on the 8hr Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Bottom of broken bullish channel | See 2hr Chart |
| Current Price | 0.8739 | |
| Support 1 | 0.8562 | 38.2% of XA on the 2hr Chart |
| Support 2 | 0.8470 | 50% of XA on the 2hr Chart |
| Support 3 | 0.8378 | 61.8% of XA on the 2hr Chart |
- 8hr Chart - Broken bearish trend line.
- 2hr Chart - Broken bullish channel.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
NZD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The NZD/USD fell slightly, breached the bottom of the bullish channel, and rose back into the channel. Like many other formations today, this is pretty sloppy price action and doesn't provide much information. Hopefully something more useful develops tomorrow.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 0.7224 | 61.8% of XC on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 2 | Top of bearish channel | See Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Top of bullish channel | See 4hr Chart |
| Current Price | 0.7128 | |
| Support 1 | Bottom of bullish channel | See 4hr Chart |
| Support 2 | 0.6935 | 38.2% of XA on the 4hr Chart |
| Support 3 | 0.6866 | 50% of XA on the 4hr Chart |
- Weekly Chart - Bearish channel still hanging on.
- 4hr Chart - Bullish channel hangs on but isn't pretty.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.