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Swing Technicals- USD/CHF to Resume Downtrend at 1.0677?
Last updated 19 March 2010 05:29 PM ET (GMT -5)
| EUR/USD (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| GBP/USD (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| USD/JPY (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| USD/CHF (Medium Term) | | Sell USD/CHF at 1.0677. Stop at 1.0706. Profit target at 1.0633. |
| USD/CAD (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| AUD/USD (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| NZD/USD (Medium Term) | | Sell NZD/USD at 0.7141. stop at 0.7205. Profit target at 0.7055. |
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
EUR/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The bottom of the bullish channel has been broken on the EUR/USD Daily Chart. While nothing is certain, this could suggest that we will test the area where we saw support earlier. A break below those previous lows could lead to a test of 61.8% of YZ on the Weekly Chart. Whatever the case, hopefully this move breaks up the range we have been stuck in.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 1.4288 | 50% of AB on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 1.4086 | 38.2% of AB on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Bottom of broken channel | See Daily Chart |
| Current Price | 1.3534 | |
| Support 1 | 1.3403 | 61.8% of YZ on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 2 | 1.2930 | 78.6% of YZ on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 3 | 1.2328 | 100% of YZ on the Weekly Chart |
- Weekly Chart - Will we test 61.8% of YZ next week?
- Daily Chart - Broken bullish channel.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
GBP/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
I couldn't resist posting this trade result one more time. It is just so clear to me that the pattern "worked", but the trade lost because of the British news announcement that came out when the pair was just below the entry. Entering in this situation is a no-win proposition. If the news moved the pair up (which it did), then the trade will likely be stopped out. If the news moves the pair down, then the trade will likely drop to invalidation level before ever entering. Entering just before the news will likely lead to a negative result even if there is a strong pattern that appears to work. This is a perfect example to remember next time one of our patterns is about to enter just as a major news announcement is being released.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | N/A | N/A |
| Resistance 2 | N/A | N/A |
| Resistance 1 | 1.5284 | Bearish Gartley |
| Current Price | 1.5015 | |
| Support 1 | N/A | N/A |
| Support 2 | N/A | N/A |
| Support 3 | N/A | N/A |
- Daily Chart - Resistance appears to take hold for now.
- 4hr Chart - Bearish Gartley creating some resistance after a British news announcement knocked the trade out.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USD/JPY (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The only pattern to draw is the
bullish Gartley forming on the Daily Chart. We have not fully posted
it yet for several reasons: strong long term bearish channel, trade
will take multiple days to complete, and long bars would have to be
present for the pattern to complete soon. Therefore, we will keep it
on the radar for now, but we will not post the trade yet.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 104.47 | 50% of XC on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 99.83 | 38.2% of XC on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Top of bearish channel | See Weekly Chart |
| Current Price | 90.54 | |
| Support 1 | 88.25 | 61.8% of XA on the Daily Chart |
| Support 2 | 87.12 | 100% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 3 | 86.74 | 78.6% if XA on the Daily Chart |
- Weekly Chart - Bearish channel.
- Daily Chart - Possible bullish Gartley forming.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USD/CHF (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Sell USD/CHF at 1.0677. Stop at 1.0706. Profit target at 1.0633.
| What is the trend? | Down |
| What is this pattern? | Bearish Butterfly - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | Converging Fibonacci levels provide strong resistance @ point D. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | Trade would enter near the top of the bearish channel on the 4hr Chart. |
Reason for Strategy
There is a bearish butterfly forming on the USD/CHF 1hr Chart. The
pattern has excellent price symmetry, although we obviously have to
wait to see how the time symmetry shakes out. The trade would enter
near the top of the bearish channel on the 4hr Chart as well. If CD
rises with roughly the same slope as AB, this will be a high
probability trade.
Trade Invalidation
A move below 1.0565 before reaching point D would cancel the trade. Additionally, a move above 1.0677 would stop the trade out. Long bars in the CD leg near the entry would also invalidate this trade. Also, if the pattern comes within 8 pips of hitting the entry, does not enter, and reaches 1.0617, the trade is also invalidated.
| Resistance 3 | N/A | N/A |
| Resistance 2 | Top of bearish channel | See 4hr Chart |
| Resistance 1 | 1.0677 | Bearish butterfly |
| Current Price | 1.0603 | |
| Support 1 | Bottom of bearish channel | See 4hr Chart |
| Support 2 | N/A | N/A |
| Support 3 | N/A | N/A |
- 4hr Chart - Trade would enter near the top of the bearish channel.
- 1hr Chart - Bearish butterfly; sell at 1.0677.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USD/CAD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
Some major news made for a wild morning with the USD/CAD. The pair gapped down, plummeted, and then rose back up almost as quickly as it fell. This type of erratic price action is exactly why I try to avoid entering a trade immediately before a major announcement related to a currency within the pair. Interestingly, the pair jumped off of the trend lines we had drawn, but it would be hard to profit off of those lines in this case. We will wait for the pair to reset next week.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 1.0419 | 50% of AD on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 1.0335 | 38.2% of AD on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Top of bullish channel | See 1hr Chart |
| Current Price | 1.0163 | |
| Support 1 | Bottom of bullish channel | See 1hr Chart |
| Support 2 | Broken bearish trend line | See 1hr Chart |
| Support 3 | 1.0072 | 127.2% of XA on the Daily Chart |
- Daily Chart - Will 1.0072 (127.2% of XA) hold?
- 1hr Chart - Erratic price action after several major announcements.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
AUD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
Sometimes I feel like a broken record when I cover long bars, but this is a perfect example of why I mention long bars on every single trade setup that I post. There was a clear long bar accelerating to the entry of the posted trade. If you have read a number of my articles, I truly hope you avoided this trade. If you are new, this is a good learning experience on why we do not enter trades with clear long bars accelerating to the entry.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | N/A | N/A |
| Resistance 2 | N/A | N/A |
| Resistance 1 | Top of bullish channel | See 4hr Chart |
| Current Price | 0.9161 | |
| Support 1 | Bottom of bullish channel | See 4hr Chart |
| Support 2 | N/A | N/A |
| Support 3 | N/A | N/A |
- 4hr Chart - Bullish channel.
- 1hr Chart - Bullish Gartley with long bar at entry; trades like this should not be taken.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
NZD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Sell NZD/USD at 0.7141. stop at 0.7205. Profit target at 0.7055.
| What is the trend? | Down |
| What is this pattern? | Bearish Gartley - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | Converging Fibonacci levels provide strong resistance @ point D. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | Entry occurs just above 38.2% of X3A and 50% of X2A. Double top. |
Reason for Strategy
The bearish Gartley pattern has completed on the NZD/USD 4hr Chart.
There
are three potential candidates for point X that all line up at the same
basic level. It is still possible to enter the trade at 0.7141
assuming the pair hasn't hit either the stop or the profit target.
Also, note that we have slightly changed the profit target to 0.7055.
Trade Invalidation
A move above 0.7205 would stop the trade out.
| Resistance 3 | N/A | N/A |
| Resistance 2 | N/A | N/A |
| Resistance 1 | 0.7141 | Bearish Gartley |
| Current Price | 0.7081 | |
| Support 1 | 0.7055 | 38.2% of CD |
| Support 2 | N/A | N/A |
| Support 3 | N/A | N/A |
- Daily Chart - Trade entered just above 38.2% of X3A and 50% of X2A.
- 8hr Chart - Bearish Gartley; sell at 0.7141.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.