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Swing Technicals- NZD/USD Continues to Test 0.7141
Last updated 18 March 2010 05:50 PM ET (GMT -5)
| EUR/USD (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| GBP/USD (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| USD/JPY (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| USD/CHF (Medium Term) | | Sell USD/CHF at 1.0677. Stop at 1.0706. Profit target at 1.0633. |
| USD/CAD (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| AUD/USD (Medium Term) | | Buy AUD/USD at 0.9152. Stop at 0.9136. Profit target at 0.9175. |
| NZD/USD (Medium Term) | | Sell NZD/USD at 0.7141. stop at 0.7205. Profit target at 0.7055. |
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
EUR/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The EUR/USD has fallen back into that narrow range once again. The bottom of the channel is also being tested on the Daily Chart, which could be holding the pair from dropping below the range. At this point there is still no conclusive action to take with this pair.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 1.4288 | 50% of AB on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 1.4086 | 38.2% of AB on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Top of bullish channel | See Daily Chart |
| Current Price | 1.3611 | |
| Support 1 | Bottom of bullish channel | See Daily Chart |
| Support 2 | 1.3735 | 50% of YZ on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 3 | 1.3403 | 61.8% of YZ on the Weekly Chart |
- Weekly Chart - Will we finally break up?
- Daily Chart - Bullish channel.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
GBP/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
Normally I move onto the next pattern after a two period since the last pattern closed, but I feel I should make some additional comments on this pattern. I have seen this scenario many times. It appears that the pattern has held, but the news knocked us out before the resistance came into effect. This is a great example of why we do not enter these trades immediately after a major news announcement has been released pertaining to one of the currencies in the pair.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | N/A | N/A |
| Resistance 2 | N/A | N/A |
| Resistance 1 | 1.5284 | Bearish Gartley |
| Current Price | 1.5240 | |
| Support 1 | N/A | N/A |
| Support 2 | N/A | N/A |
| Support 3 | N/A | N/A |
- Daily Chart - Resistance appears to take hold for now.
- 4hr Chart - Bearish Gartley creating some resistance after a British news announcement knocked the trade out.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USD/JPY (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The only pattern to draw is the
bullish Gartley forming on the Daily Chart. We have not fully posted
it yet for several reasons: strong long term bearish channel, trade
will take multiple days to complete, and long bars would have to be
present for the pattern to complete soon. Therefore, we will keep it
on the radar for now, but we will not post the trade yet.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 104.47 | 50% of XC on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 99.83 | 38.2% of XC on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Top of bearish channel | See Weekly Chart |
| Current Price | 90.37 | |
| Support 1 | 88.25 | 61.8% of XA on the Daily Chart |
| Support 2 | 87.12 | 100% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 3 | 86.74 | 78.6% if XA on the Daily Chart |
- Weekly Chart - Bearish channel.
- Daily Chart - Possible bullish Gartley forming.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USD/CHF (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Sell USD/CHF at 1.0677. Stop at 1.0706. Profit target at 1.0633.
| What is the trend? | Down |
| What is this pattern? | Bearish Butterfly - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | Converging Fibonacci levels provide strong resistance @ point D. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | Trade would enter near the top of the bearish channel on the 4hr Chart. |
Reason for Strategy
There is a bearish butterfly forming on the USD/CHF 1hr Chart. The pattern has excellent price symmetry, although we obviously have to wait to see how the time symmetry shakes out. The trade would enter near the top of the bearish channel on the 4hr Chart as well. If CD rises with roughly the same slope as AB, this will be a high probability trade.
Trade Invalidation
A move below 1.0530 before reaching point D would cancel the trade. Additionally, a move above 1.0677 would stop the trade out. Long bars in the CD leg near the entry would also invalidate this trade. Also, if the pattern comes within 8 pips of hitting the entry, does not enter, and reaches 1.0617, the trade is also invalidated.
| Resistance 3 | N/A | N/A |
| Resistance 2 | Top of bearish channel | See 4hr Chart |
| Resistance 1 | 1.0677 | Bearish butterfly |
| Current Price | 1.0583 | |
| Support 1 | Bottom of bearish channel | See 4hr Chart |
| Support 2 | N/A | N/A |
| Support 3 | N/A | N/A |
- 4hr Chart - Trade would enter near the top of the bearish channel.
- 1hr Chart - Bearish butterfly; sell at 1.0677.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USD/CAD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The bearish trend line on the USD/CAD has been broken. Therefore, we have drawn a relatively small bullish channel that is forming off of the break. It is too early for this channel to be "official", but so far it looks good. Since the magnitude of this channel is fairly small, we will likely watch for a breakout rather than a pattern to form.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 1.0424 | 50% of AD on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 1.0340 | 38.2% of AD on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Top of bullish channel | See 1hr Chart |
| Current Price | 1.0144 | |
| Support 1 | Bottom of bullish channel | See 1hr Chart |
| Support 2 | Broken bearish trend line | See 1hr Chart |
| Support 3 | 1.0072 | 127.2% of XA on the Daily Chart |
- Daily Chart - Will 1.0072 (127.2% of XA) hold?
- 1hr Chart - Bullish channel forming after bearish trend line was broken.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
AUD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Buy AUD/USD at 0.9152. Stop at 0.9136. Profit target at 0.9175.
| What is the trend? | Up |
| What is this pattern? | Bullish Gartley - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | Converging Fibonacci levels provide strong support @ point D. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | Trade would enter near the bottom of the bullish channel. |
Reason for Strategy
This is a textbook trade. The bullish Gartley has nearly perfect price symmetry, and the trade would enter near the bottom of the bullish channel. The only factor to account for at this point is time symmetry. If the CD leg drops with the same basic slope as AB, this would an excellent trade opportunity.
Trade Invalidation
A move above 0.9225 before reaching point D would cancel the trade. Additionally, a move below 0.9136 would stop the trade out. Additional long bars in the CD leg near the entry would also invalidate this trade. Also, if the pattern comes within 6 pips of hitting the entry, does not enter, and reaches 0.9183, the trade is also invalidated.
| Resistance 3 | N/A | N/A |
| Resistance 2 | N/A | N/A |
| Resistance 1 | Top of bullish channel | See 4hr Chart |
| Current Price | 0.9205 | |
| Support 1 | 0.9152 | Bullish Gartley |
| Support 2 | Bottom of bullish channel | See 4hr Chart |
| Support 3 | N/A | N/A |
- 4hr Chart - Trade would enter near the bottom of the bullish channel.
- 1hr Chart - Bullish Gartley; buy at 0.9152.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
NZD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Sell NZD/USD at 0.7141. stop at 0.7205. Profit target at 0.7055.
| What is the trend? | Down |
| What is this pattern? | Bearish Gartley - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | Converging Fibonacci levels provide strong resistance @ point D. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | Entry occurs just above 38.2% of X3A and 50% of X2A. Double top. |
Reason for Strategy
The bearish Gartley pattern has completed on the NZD/USD 4hr Chart.
There
are three potential candidates for point X that all line up at the same
basic level. It is still possible to enter the trade at 0.7141
assuming the pair hasn't hit either the stop or the profit target.
Also, note that we have slightly changed the profit target to 0.7055.
Trade Invalidation
A move above 0.7205 would stop the trade out.
| Resistance 3 | N/A | N/A |
| Resistance 2 | N/A | N/A |
| Resistance 1 | 0.7141 | Bearish Gartley |
| Current Price | 0.7138 | |
| Support 1 | 0.7055 | 38.2% of CD |
| Support 2 | N/A | N/A |
| Support 3 | N/A | N/A |
- Daily Chart - Trade entered just above 38.2% of X3A and 50% of X2A.
- 8hr Chart - Bearish Gartley; sell at 0.7141.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.