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Swing Technicals- GBP/USD and NZD/USD Both Approaching Short Entries
Last updated 16 March 2010 05:54 PM ET (GMT -5)
| EUR/USD (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| GBP/USD (Medium Term) | | Sell GBP/USD at 1.5284. Stop at 1.5372. Profit target at 1.5151. |
| USD/JPY (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| USD/CHF (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| USD/CAD (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| AUD/USD (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| NZD/USD (Medium Term) | | Sell NZD/USD at 0.7141. stop at 0.7205. Profit target at 0.7045. |
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
EUR/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The EUR/USD has moved back up within the channel. If the pair makes a new high, we may finally break out of the range we have been stuck in for weeks. However, there is still no solid pattern to trade at this point, so we will continue to stay on the sidelines.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 1.4288 | 50% of AB on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 1.4086 | 38.2% of AB on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Top of bullish channel | See Daily Chart |
| Current Price | 1.3771 | |
| Support 1 | Bottom of bullish channel | See Daily Chart |
| Support 2 | 1.3735 | 50% of YZ on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 3 | 1.3403 | 61.8% of YZ on the Weekly Chart |
- Weekly Chart - Will we finally break up?
- Daily Chart - Bullish channel.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
GBP/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Sell GBP/USD at 1.5284. Stop at 1.5372. Profit target at 1.5151.
| What is the trend? | Down |
| What is this pattern? | Bearish Gartley - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | Converging Fibonacci levels provide strong resistance @ point D. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | Multiple Fibonacci retracements on the Daily Chart. |
Reason for Strategy
A bearish Gartley pattern is forming on the GBP/USD 4hr Chart below.
The pattern has great price symmetry, although it is too early to
determine time symmetry. There are also three other candidates for
point X. There is a downtrend on the Daily Chart, but the chart would
be too cluttered if we drew it in. There have been some questionably long bars lately, however the pair may be slowing down into the entry. The trade is still on assuming the pair eases into the entry. There is no easy mathematical way to describe this, so you have to use your best judgment.
Trade Invalidation
A move below 1.4905 before reaching point D would cancel the trade. Additionally, a move above 1.5372 would stop the trade out. Long bars in the CD leg near the entry would also invalidate this trade. Also, if the pattern comes within 20 pips of hitting the entry, does not enter, and reaches 1.5115, the trade is also invalidated.
| Resistance 3 | 1.5298 | 50% of X2A on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 1.5284 | Bearish Gartley |
| Resistance 1 | 1.5274 | 50% of X3A on the Daily Chart |
| Current Price | 1.5249 | |
| Support 1 | N/A | N/A |
| Support 2 | N/A | N/A |
| Support 3 | N/A | N/A |
- Daily Chart - Multiple Fibonacci retracement levels converge at our entry.
- 4hr Chart - Bearish Gartley; sell at 1.5284.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USD/JPY (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The only pattern to draw is the
bullish Gartley forming on the Daily Chart. We have not fully posted
it yet for several reasons: strong long term bearish channel, trade
will take multiple days to complete, and long bars would have to be
present for the pattern to complete soon. Therefore, we will keep it
on the radar for now, but we will not post the trade yet.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 104.47 | 50% of XC on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 99.83 | 38.2% of XC on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Top of bearish channel | See Weekly Chart |
| Current Price | 90.27 | |
| Support 1 | 88.25 | 61.8% of XA on the Daily Chart |
| Support 2 | 87.12 | 100% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 3 | 86.74 | 78.6% if XA on the Daily Chart |
- Weekly Chart - Bearish channel.
- Daily Chart - Possible bullish Gartley forming.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USD/CHF (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
After a short rally, the USD/CHF continued to drop. Therefore, the broken bearish channel on the 4hr Chart will probably become irrelevant soon. Tomorrow we will likely attempt to determine a completely new context in which to watch for trades.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 1.0822 | 38.2% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 2 | Bearish trend line | See Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Bottom of broken channel | See 4hr Chart |
| Current Price | 1.0543 | |
| Support 1 | 1.0184 | 78.6% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 2 | 0.9609 | 100% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 3 | 0.8878 | 127.2% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
- Weekly Chart - Will key resistance continue to hold?
- 4hr Chart - Broken bearish channel.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USD/CAD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
We have drawn a new bearish trend line on the USD/CAD 1hr Chart after the pair made a new low. At this point, I am watching to see if the pair breaks the trend line. A strong break could indicated a possible retest at 1.0223 (the previous low). However, if the trend line holds the next spot to watch for is 1.0072 (127.2% of XA on the Daily Chart).
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 1.0454 | 50% of AD on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 1.0378 | 38.2% of AD on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Bearish trend line | See 1hr Chart |
| Current Price | 1.0135 | |
| Support 1 | 1.0072 | 127.2% of XA on the Daily Chart |
| Support 2 | 0.9879 | 161.8% if XA on the Daily Chart |
| Support 3 | N/A | N/A |
- Daily Chart - The USD/CAD has made a new low; will the drop continue?
- 1hr Chart - Bearish trend line.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
AUD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The bullish channel on the AUD/USD 2hr Chart has broken. However, the
pair has rallied back up inside the channel. Typically we would expect to see some resistance at the bottom of the broken channel, especially since this level has been tested twice already (as we can see on the 2hr Chart). If the pair breaks up, a gest of 0.9228 (78.6% of XA) will likely be in store.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 0.9405 | 100% of XC on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 0.9228 | 78.6% of XC on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Bottom of broken channel | See 2hr Chart |
| Current Price | 0.9196 | |
| Support 1 | 0.8960 | 38.2% of AB on the Daily Chart |
| Support 2 | 0.8887 | 50% of AB on the Daily Chart |
| Support 3 | 0.8814 | 61.8% of AB on the Daily Chart |
- Daily Chart - Will we test 0.9228 over the next day?
- 2hr Chart - AUD/USD has entered the channel after previously breaking it.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
NZD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Sell NZD/USD at 0.7141. stop at 0.7205. Profit target at 0.7045.
| What is the trend? | Down |
| What is this pattern? | Bearish Gartley - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | Converging Fibonacci levels provide strong resistance @ point D. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | Entry occurs just above 38.2% of X3A and 50% of X2A. Double top. |
Reason for Strategy
A bearish Gartley pattern is forming on the NZD/USD 4hr Chart. There
are three potential candidates for point X that all line up at the same
basic level. This trade would also form a possible double top.
Although the pair came close to falling below C, it didn't
breach that point. Therefore this pattern is still good to go.
Trade Invalidation
A move below 0.6840 before reaching point D would cancel the trade. Additionally, a move above 0.7205 would stop the trade out. Additional long bars in the CD leg near the entry would also invalidate this trade. Also, if the pattern comes within 20 pips of hitting the entry, does not enter, and reaches 0.7015, the trade is also invalidated.
| Resistance 3 | N/A | N/A |
| Resistance 2 | N/A | N/A |
| Resistance 1 | 0.7141 | Bearish Gartley |
| Current Price | 0.7122 | |
| Support 1 | N/A | N/A |
| Support 2 | N/A | N/A |
| Support 3 | N/A | N/A |
- Daily Chart - Trade would enter just above 38.2% of X3A and 50% of X2A.
- 4hr Chart - Bearish Gartley; sell at 0.7141.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.