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Swing Technicals- NZD/USD Slowly Rising to Possible 0.7141 Short.
Last updated 15 March 2010 05:56 PM ET (GMT -5)
| EUR/USD (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| GBP/USD (Medium Term) | | Sell GBP/USD at 1.5284. Stop at 1.5372. Profit target at 1.5151. |
| USD/JPY (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| USD/CHF (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| USD/CAD (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| AUD/USD (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| NZD/USD (Medium Term) | | Sell NZD/USD at 0.7141. stop at 0.7205. Profit target at 0.7045. |
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
EUR/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The top of the channel has provided resistance, and the EUR/USD has dropped back down into the relatively narrow range. Thankfully the pair has remained in the channel so we still have a solid context that will help identify potential trades. Sooner or later the pair will also break out, and I imagine it could be a very big move.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 1.4006 | 50% of AB on the 8hr Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 1.3871 | 38.2% of AB on the 8hr Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Top of bullish channel | See 8hr Chart |
| Current Price | 1.3677 | |
| Support 1 | Bottom of bullish channel | See 8hr Chart |
| Support 2 | 1.3403 | 61.8% of YZ on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 3 | 1.2930 | 78.6% of YZ on the Weekly Chart |
- Weekly Chart - The EUR/USD has fallen back into the narrow range.
- 8hr Chart - Bullish channel.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
GBP/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Sell GBP/USD at 1.5284. Stop at 1.5372. Profit target at 1.5151.
| What is the trend? | Down |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | Converging Fibonacci levels provide strong resistance @ point D. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | Multiple Fibonacci retracements on the Daily Chart. |
Reason for Strategy
A bearish Gartley pattern is forming on the GBP/USD 4hr Chart below.
The pattern has great price symmetry, although it is too early to
determine time symmetry. There are also three other candidates for
point X. There is a downtrend on the Daily Chart, but the chart would
be too cluttered if we drew it in.
Trade Invalidation
A move below 1.4905 before reaching point D would cancel the trade. Additionally, a move above 1.5372 would stop the trade out. Long bars in the CD leg near the entry would also invalidate this trade. Also, if the pattern comes within 20 pips of hitting the entry, does not enter, and reaches 1.5115, the trade is also invalidated.
| Resistance 3 | 1.5298 | 50% of X2A on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 1.5284 | Bearish Gartley |
| Resistance 1 | 1.5274 | 50% of X3A on the Daily Chart |
| Current Price | 1.5056 | |
| Support 1 | N/A | N/A |
| Support 2 | N/A | N/A |
| Support 3 | N/A | N/A |
- Daily Chart - Multiple Fibonacci retracement levels converge at our entry.
- 4hr Chart - Bearish Gartley; sell at 1.5284.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USD/JPY (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The only pattern to draw is the
bullish Gartley forming on the Daily Chart. We have not fully posted
it yet for several reasons: strong long term bearish channel, trade
will take multiple days to complete, and long bars would have to be
present for the pattern to complete soon. Therefore, we will keep it
on the radar for now, but we will not post the trade yet.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 104.47 | 50% of XC on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 99.83 | 38.2% of XC on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Top of bearish channel | See Weekly Chart |
| Current Price | 90.53 | |
| Support 1 | 88.25 | 61.8% of XA on the Daily Chart |
| Support 2 | 87.12 | 100% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 3 | 86.74 | 78.6% if XA on the Daily Chart |
- Weekly Chart - Bearish channel.
- Daily Chart - Possible bullish Gartley forming.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USD/CHF (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The USD/CHF has rallied a small amount, but the pair still seems bearish. We are once again testing the bearish trend line on the Weekly Chart, and we are close to testing the bottom of the broken channel on the 4hr Chart. You may also notice that the most recent high is just below the significant low to the left. There is still no conclusive trade, but I have a feeling this pair will become cooperative shortly.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 1.0822 | 38.2% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 2 | Bearish trend line | See Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Bottom of broken channel | See 4hr Chart |
| Current Price | 1.0619 | |
| Support 1 | 1.0184 | 78.6% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 2 | 0.9609 | 100% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 3 | 0.8878 | 127.2% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
- Weekly Chart - Will key resistance continue to hold?
- 4hr Chart - Broken bearish channel.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USD/CAD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The USD/CAD has risen back in the channel after making a new low last week. The channel looks pretty weak at this point, and we should arguably erase it. However, I will leave the channel on for at least one more day to see if it provides any more information. There is also a possible pattern in the very early stages of forming, but we cannot post it yet. Watch for this potential opportunity to be posted later tonight if the pattern does indeed form.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 1.0464 | 50% of AD on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 1.03791 | 38.2% of AD on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Top of bearish channel | See 2hr Chart |
| Current Price | 1.0187 | |
| Support 1 | Bottom of bearish channel | See 2hr Chart |
| Support 2 | 1.0072 | 127.2% of XA on the 8hr Chart |
| Support 3 | 0.9879 | 161.8% of XA on the 8hr Chart |
- Daily Chart - The USD/CAD has made a new low; will the drop continue?
- 2hr Chart - The bearish channel has become weak, but we will watch it for at least one more day.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
AUD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The bullish channel on the AUD/USD 2hr Chart has broken. However, the pair has rallied back up to the approximate price where the channel broke. Right now the pair is in no man's land, and is tough to tell where it might go next. We will keep observing, and hopefully something more useful will present itself soon.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 0.9228 | 78.6% of XA on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 0.9089 | 61.8% of XA on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Bottom of broken channel | See 2hr Chart |
| Current Price | 0.9143 | |
| Support 1 | 0.8958 | 38.2% of AB on the Daily Chart |
| Support 2 | 0.8885 | 50% of AB on the Daily Chart |
| Support 3 | 0.8813 | 61.8% of AB on the Daily Chart |
- Daily Chart - Next stop 78.6% of XA?
- 2hr Chart - Broken bullish channel.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
NZD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Sell NZD/USD at 0.7141. stop at 0.7205. Profit target at 0.7045.
| What is the trend? | Down |
| What is this pattern? | Bearish Gartley - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | Converging Fibonacci levels provide strong resistance @ point D. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | Entry occurs just above 38.2% of X3A and 50% of X2A. Double top. |
Reason for Strategy
A bearish Gartley pattern is forming on the NZD/USD 4hr Chart. There
are three potential candidates for point X that all line up at the same
basic level. This trade would also form a possible double top.
Although the pair came close to falling below C, it didn't
breach that point. Therefore this pattern is still good to go.
Trade Invalidation
A move below 0.6840 before reaching point D would cancel the trade. Additionally, a move above 0.7205 would stop the trade out. Additional long bars in the CD leg near the entry would also invalidate this trade. Also, if the pattern comes within 20 pips of hitting the entry, does not enter, and reaches 0.7015, the trade is also invalidated.
| Resistance 3 | N/A | N/A |
| Resistance 2 | N/A | N/A |
| Resistance 1 | 0.7141 | Bearish Gartley |
| Current Price | 0.7017 | |
| Support 1 | N/A | N/A |
| Support 2 | N/A | N/A |
| Support 3 | N/A | N/A |
- Daily Chart - Trade would enter just above 38.2% of X3A and 50% of X2A.
- 4hr Chart - Bearish Gartley; sell at 0.7141.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.