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Swing Technicals- GBP/USD Almost at 1.5284 Short
Last updated 12 March 2010 05:50 PM ET (GMT -5)
| EUR/USD (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| GBP/USD (Medium Term) | | Sell GBP/USD at 1.5284. Stop at 1.5372. Profit target at 1.5151. |
| USD/JPY (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| USD/CHF (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| USD/CAD (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| AUD/USD (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| NZD/USD (Medium Term) | | Sell NZD/USD at 0.7141. stop at 0.7205. Profit target at 0.7045. |
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
EUR/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The EUR/USD may finally be making a move after a range bound month. The pair has risen over the past day, but of course a drop down could put it right back in the range. Regardless, the move up has helped form a new bullish channel. We will watch for new patterns to form within the context of the channel.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 1.4006 | 50% of AB on the 8hr Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 1.3871 | 38.2% of AB on the 8hr Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Top of bullish channel | See 8hr Chart |
| Current Price | 1.3758 | |
| Support 1 | Bottom of bullish channel | See 8hr Chart |
| Support 2 | 1.3403 | 61.8% of YZ on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 3 | 1.2930 | 78.6% of YZ on the Weekly Chart |
- Weekly Chart - Will the EUR/USD break up out of the range?
- 8hr Chart - Bullish channel.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
GBP/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Sell GBP/USD at 1.5284. Stop at 1.5372. Profit target at 1.5151.
| What is the trend? | Down |
| What is this pattern? | Bearish Gartley - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | Converging Fibonacci levels provide strong resistance @ point D. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | Multiple Fibonacci retracements on the Daily Chart. |
Reason for Strategy
A bearish Gartley pattern is forming on the GBP/USD 4hr Chart below.
The pattern has great price symmetry, although it is too early to
determine time symmetry. There are also three other candidates for
point X. There is a downtrend on the Daily Chart, but the chart would
be too cluttered if we drew it in. Be very cautious of more long bars or a gap up in the CD leg after the weekend. We need the pair to slow down before hitting our entry in order to take this trade.
Trade Invalidation
A move below 1.4850 before reaching point D would cancel the trade. Additionally, a move above 1.5372 would stop the trade out. Long bars in the CD leg near the entry would also invalidate this trade. Also, if the pattern comes within 20 pips of hitting the entry, does not enter, and reaches 1.5115, the trade is also invalidated.
| Resistance 3 | 1.5298 | 50% of X2A on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 1.5284 | Bearish Gartley |
| Resistance 1 | 1.5274 | 50% of X3A on the Daily Chart |
| Current Price | 1.5187 | |
| Support 1 | N/A | N/A |
| Support 2 | N/A | N/A |
| Support 3 | N/A | N/A |
- Daily Chart - Multiple Fibonacci retracement levels converge at our entry.
- 4hr Chart - Bearish Gartley; sell at 1.5284.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USD/JPY (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The only pattern to draw is the
bullish Gartley forming on the Daily Chart. We have not fully posted
it yet for several reasons: strong long term bearish channel, trade
will take multiple days to complete, and long bars would have to be
present for the pattern to complete soon. Therefore, we will keep it
on the radar for now, but we will not post the trade yet.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 104.47 | 50% of XC on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 99.83 | 38.2% of XC on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Top of bearish channel | See Weekly Chart |
| Current Price | 90.49 | |
| Support 1 | 88.25 | 61.8% of XA on the Daily Chart |
| Support 2 | 87.12 | 100% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 3 | 86.74 | 78.6% if XA on the Daily Chart |
- Weekly Chart - Bearish channel.
- Daily Chart - Possible bullish Gartley forming.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USD/CHF (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The USD/CHF has dropped below the channel on the 4hr Chart. At this point, the price action suggest that the pair will continue to drop. However, there is no pattern to enter a trade. Also, there is no guarantee the pair could drop and we could see the pair rally back into the channel. There is simply too much uncertainty to take any action at this point.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 1.0822 | 38.2% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 2 | Bearish trend line | See Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Bottom of broken channel | See 4hr Chart |
| Current Price | 1.0590 | |
| Support 1 | 1.0184 | 78.6% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 2 | 0.9609 | 100% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 3 | 0.8878 | 127.2% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
- Weekly Chart - Will key resistance continue to hold?
- 4hr Chart - Broken bearish channel.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USD/CAD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
Yesterday, I wrote "I also have a gut feeling that we could see a sharp drop down, and that we will make a new low." As I speculated, the USD/CAD dropped sharply and the pair has made a new low. It is hard to tell what the pair will do next, but it should be interesting to watch what happens next week.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 1.0467 | 50% of AD on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 1.0393 | 38.2% of AD on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Bottom of broken bearish channel | See 1hr Chart |
| Current Price | 1.0176 | |
| Support 1 | 1.0072 | 127.2% of XA on the Daily Chart |
| Support 2 | 0.9879 | 161.8% if XA on the Daily Chart |
| Support 3 | N/A | N/A |
- Daily Chart - The USD/CAD has made a new low.
- 1hr Chart - The bearish channel has been broken to the bottom.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
AUD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
A bullish channel has formed on the AUD/USD 1hr Chart. The pair has
continued to rise past 61.8% of XA on the Daily Chart. One scenario to watch is if the channel breaks to the bottom. If the channel breaks, we could see a big move down.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 0.9405 | 100% of XC on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 2 | Top of bullish channel | See 1hr Chart |
| Resistance 1 | 0.9228 | 78.6% of XA on the Daily Chart |
| Current Price | 0.9158 | |
| Support 1 | Bottom of bullish channel | See 1hr Chart |
| Support 2 | 0.8956 | 38.2% of AB on the Daily Chart |
| Support 3 | 0.8885 | 50% of AB on the Daily Chart |
- Daily Chart - Next stop 78.6% of XA?
- 1hr Chart - Bullish channel.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
NZD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Sell NZD/USD at 0.7141. stop at 0.7205. Profit target at 0.7045.
| What is the trend? | Down |
| What is this pattern? | Bearish Gartley - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | Converging Fibonacci levels provide strong resistance @ point D. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | Entry occurs just above 38.2% of X3A and 50% of X2A. Double top. |
Reason for Strategy
A bearish Gartley pattern is forming on the NZD/USD 4hr Chart. There
are three potential candidates for point X that all line up at the same
basic level. This trade would also form a possible double top.
Although the pair came close to falling below C, it didn't
breach that point. Therefore this pattern is still good to go.
Trade Invalidation
A move below 0.6840 before reaching point D would cancel the trade. Additionally, a move above 0.7205 would stop the trade out. Additional long bars in the CD leg near the entry would also invalidate this trade. Also, if the pattern comes within 20 pips of hitting the entry, does not enter, and reaches 0.7015, the trade is also invalidated.
| Resistance 3 | N/A | N/A |
| Resistance 2 | N/A | N/A |
| Resistance 1 | 0.7141 | Bearish Gartley |
| Current Price | 0.7013 | |
| Support 1 | N/A | N/A |
| Support 2 | N/A | N/A |
| Support 3 | N/A | N/A |
- Daily Chart - Trade would enter just above 38.2% of X3A and 50% of X2A.
- 4hr Chart - Bearish Gartley; sell at 0.7141.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.