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Swing Technicals- EUR/USD Short at 1.3850
Last updated 04 March 2010 05:57 PM ET (GMT -5)
| EUR/USD (Medium Term) | | Sell EUR/USD at 1.3850. Stop at 1.3916. Profit targets at 1.3750. |
| GBP/USD (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| USD/JPY (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| USD/CHF (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| USD/CAD (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| AUD/USD (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| NZD/USD (Medium Term) | | Sell NZD/USD at 0.7141. stop at 0.7205. Profit target at 0.7045. |
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
EUR/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Sell EUR/USD at 1.3850. Stop at 1.3916. Profit targets at 1.3750.
| What is the trend? | Down |
| What is this pattern? | Bearish Butterfly - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | Converging Fibonacci levels provide strong resistance @ point D. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | Trade would enter near the top of the bearish channel on the Daily Chart. |
Reason for Strategy
A bearish butterfly pattern is forming on the EUR/USD 2hr Chart. The pattern has good price symmetry and would enter near the top of the bearish channel on the Daily Chart. The only concern is that the CD leg has barely begun, and it has a long way to rise before we would enter. However, if CD rises with a similar slope to AB, this is a high probability sell at 1.3850.
Trade Invalidation
A move below 1.3530 before reaching point D would cancel the trade. Additionally, a move above 1.3916 would stop the trade out. Additional long bars in the CD leg near the entry would also invalidate this trade. Also, if the pattern comes within 15 pips of hitting the entry, does not enter, and reaches 1.3726, the trade is also invalidated.
| Resistance 3 | N/A | N/A |
| Resistance 2 | Top of bearish channel | See Daily Chart |
| Resistance 1 | 1.3850 | Bearish butterfly |
| Current Price | 1.3578 | |
| Support 1 | N/A | N/A |
| Support 2 | N/A | N/A |
| Support 3 | N/A | N/A |
- Daily Chart - Trade would enter near the top of the bearish channel.
- 2hr Chart - Bearish butterfly; sell at 1.3850.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
GBP/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The bullish channel on the GBP/USD 1hr Chart has broken, tested the bottom of the broken channel, and made a new low. This usually suggests that the pair is more likely to drop than the rise.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 1.5912 | 50% of XC on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 1.5645 | 38.2% of XC on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Bottom of broken channel | See 1hr Chart |
| Current Price | 1.5033 | |
| Support 1 | 1.4982 | 161.8% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 2 | 1.4535 | 200% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 3 | N/A | N/A |
- Weekly Chart - Broken bearish channel.
- 1hr Chart - Broken channel suggest a farther drop down.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USD/JPY (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The only pattern to draw is the
bullish Gartley forming on the Daily Chart. We have not fully posted
it yet for several reasons: strong long term bearish channel, trade
will take multiple days to complete, and long bars would have to be
present for the pattern to complete soon. Therefore, we will keep it
on the radar for now, but we will not post the trade yet.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 104.47 | 50% of XC on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 99.83 | 38.2% of XC on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Top of bearish channel | See Weekly Chart |
| Current Price | 88.98 | |
| Support 1 | 88.25 | 61.8% of XA on the Daily Chart |
| Support 2 | 87.12 | 100% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 3 | 86.74 | 78.6% if XA on the Daily Chart |
- Weekly Chart - Bearish channel.
- Daily Chart - Possible bullish Gartley forming.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USD/CHF (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The USD/CHF still has not made a decisive move. The pair has been mainly sideways for the past month. Hopefully a new pattern form within the bearish channel on the 2hr Chart. The channel remains relevant after nearly breaking.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 1.0822 | 38.2% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 2 | Bearish trend line | See Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Top of bearish channel | See 2hr Chart |
| Current Price | 1.0765 | |
| Support 1 | Bottom of bearish channel | See 2hr Chart |
| Support 2 | 1.0184 | 78.6% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 3 | 0.9609 | 100% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
- Weekly Chart - Will the long term resistance hold or break?
- 2hr Chart - Bearish channel.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USD/CAD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The USD/CAD has made yet another new low (barely) after recently breaking out of the
bearish channel on the 4hr Chart. The pair also continues to test
support at the top of the broken bearish channel. This support also
lined up with 78.6% of XA on the 8hr Chart yesterday, but today there
has been a fairly clear drop below this level. At this point we still
don't
know if this will be a small pause or if this will crate major support,
but this is the area we watch.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 1.0584 | 61.8% of AD on the 8hr Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 1.0524 | 50% of AD on the 8hr Chart |
| Resistance 1 | 1.0464 | 38.2% of AD on the 8hr Chart |
| Current Price | 1.0315 | |
| Support 1 | Top of broken bearish channel | See 4hr Chart |
| Support 2 | 1.0223 | 100% of XA on the 8hr Chart |
| Support 3 | 1.0072 | 127.2% of XA on the 8hr Chart |
- 8hr Chart - Will we make a new low below 1.0223 soon?
- 4hr Chart - Top of broken channel continues to provide some support.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
AUD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The AUD/USD bullish channel on the 1hr Chart has broken, so that channel didn't last long. It appears for the time being that 61.8% of XA has held resistance. Other than that, this pair isn't providing much information. We will simply watch for new patterns to form in the coming day.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 0.9228 | 78.6% of XA on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 0.9089 | 61.8% of XA on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Bottom of broken channel | See 1hr Chart |
| Current Price | 0.8994 | |
| Support 1 | 0.8889 | 38.2% of AB on the Daily Chart |
| Support 2 | 0.8831 | 50% of AB on the Daily Chart |
| Support 3 | 0.8771 | 61.8% of AB on the Daily Chart |
- Daily Chart - 61.8% of XA may be providing strong resistance.
- 1hr Chart - Broken bullish channel.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
NZD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Sell NZD/USD at 0.7141. stop at 0.7205. Profit target at 0.7045.
| What is the trend? | Down |
| What is this pattern? | Bearish Gartley - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | Converging Fibonacci levels provide strong resistance @ point D. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | Entry occurs just above 38.2% of X3A and 50% of X2A. Double top. |
Reason for Strategy
A bearish Gartley pattern is forming on the NZD/USD 4hr Chart. There
are three potential candidates for point X that all line up at the same
basic level. This trade would also form a possible double top. The
main concern is that the CD leg has a steeper slope than AB at this
point, so we will look for the rise to slow down next week before
entering.
Trade Invalidation
A move below 0.6840 before reaching point D would cancel the trade. Additionally, a move above 0.7205 would stop the trade out. Additional long bars in the CD leg near the entry would also invalidate this trade. Also, if the pattern comes within 20 pips of hitting the entry, does not enter, and reaches 0.7015, the trade is also invalidated.
| Resistance 3 | N/A | N/A |
| Resistance 2 | N/A | N/A |
| Resistance 1 | 0.7141 | Bearish Gartley |
| Current Price | 0.6862 | |
| Support 1 | N/A | N/A |
| Support 2 | N/A | N/A |
| Support 3 | N/A | N/A |
- Daily Chart - Trade would enter just above 38.2% of X3A and 50% of X2A.
- 4hr Chart - Bearish Gartley; sell at 0.7141.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.