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Swing Technicals- USD/JPY at Key Resistance (91.18)
Last updated 03 February 2010 05:47 PM ET (GMT -5)
| EUR/USD (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| GBP/USD (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| USD/JPY (Medium Term) | | Sell USD/JPY at 91.18. Stop at 91.41. Profit targets at 90.83, 90.54. |
| USD/CHF (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| USD/CAD (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| AUD/USD (Medium Term) | | Buy AUD/USD at 0.8749. Stop at 0.8712. Profit targets at 0.8805, 0.8847. |
| NZD/USD (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
EUR/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The EUR/USD has broken above the trend line. However, as I hypothesized yesterday, the pair didn't make a large move up. The trend line barely broke
and there is a lot of downward momentum. Regardless, we will continue
to watch for new patterns to form.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 1.4301 | 61.8% of AB on the 4hr Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 1.4215 | 50% of AB on the 4hr Chart |
| Resistance 1 | 1.4130 | 38.2% of AB on the 4hr Chart |
| Current Price | 1.3896 | |
| Support 1 | Top of broekn bearish trend line | See 4hr Chart |
| Support 2 | 1.3735 | 50% of YZ on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 3 | 1.3403 | 61.8% of YZ on the Weekly Chart |
- Weekly Chart - When will the recent drop see a significant retracement?
- 4hr Chart - Bearish trend line has been breached.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
GBP/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The bearish butterfly on the GBP/USD failed yesterday, and we were stopped out. The pair went to the next level up, and then came crashing down. There were longish bars going into the entry, but they aren't too extreme. Basically, this is a just a loss and we will move on to the next trade.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | N/A | N/A |
| Resistance 2 | N/A | N/A |
| Resistance 1 | Top of bearish channel | See 2hr Chart |
| Current Price | 1.5996 | |
| Support 1 | 1.5849 | Significant low |
| Support 2 | Bottom of channel | See 2hr Chart |
| Support 3 | N/A | N/A |
- 2hr Chart - Bearish channel.
- 30min Chart - Failed bearish butterfly.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USD/JPY (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Sell USD/JPY at 91.18. Stop at 91.41. Profit targets at 90.83, 90.54.
| What is the trend? | Down |
| What is this pattern? | Bearish Butterfly - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | Converging Fibonacci levels provide strong resistance @ point D. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | Trade would enter at 38.2% of YZ on the Weekly Chart. |
Reason for Strategy
A bearish butterfly has completed on the USD/JPY 4hr Chart below. However, it is still possible to enter this trade assuming it reaches our entry at 91.18 before hitting T1 at 90.83. This trade would enter 2 pips above the exact 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of YZ, which add further convergence.
Trade Invalidation
A move below 90.83 before reaching point D would cancel the trade. Additionally, a move above 91.41 would stop the trade out.
| Resistance 3 | 93.12 | 50% of YZ on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 91.18 | Bearish butterfly |
| Resistance 1 | 91.16 | 38.2% of YZ on the Weekly Chart |
| Current Price | 90.99 | |
| Support 1 | 89.13 | Significant low |
| Support 2 | 84.80 | Significant low |
| Support 3 | N/A | N/A |
- Weekly Chart - Trade would enter at 38.2% of YZ.
- 1hr Chart - Bearish butterfly; sell at 91.18.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USD/CHF (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
We have drawn an ascending triangle on the USD/CHF 8hr Chart. The pair
has broken up out of the triangle. Also, although the levels of
resistance are farther apart than we like, there is a bearish Gartley
that could be forming on the Weekly Chart. We will not post this trade
at this point, but it is worth watching.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 1.1104 | 50% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 1.0822 | 38.2% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Bearish trend line | See Weekly Chart |
| Current Price | 1.0594 | |
| Support 1 | Bottom of ascending triangle | See 8hr Chart |
| Support 2 | 1.0184 | 78.6% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 3 | 0.9609 | 100% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
- Weekly Chart - Will we see resistance soon?
- 8hr Chart - Ascending triangle broken at the top.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USD/CAD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The USD/CAD has dropped out of the bullish channel. I think this is a
key moment for this pair. If the pair continues to drop below the
prior bearish trend line on the Daily Chart, there could be a rapid
drop. However, if we see support at that level everything will be more
uncertain.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 1.0664 | 50% of EF on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 1.0633 | 78.6% of XA on the 8hr Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Bottom of broken bullish channel | See 8hr Chart |
| Current Price | 1.0625 | |
| Support 1 | Broken bearish trend line | See Daily Chart |
| Support 2 | 1.0530 | 38.2% of AB on the 8hr Chart |
| Support 3 | 1.0471 | 50% of AB on the 8hr Chart |
- Daily Chart - Will we see support at the broken trend line?
- 8hr Chart - Bullish channel has broken; what next?
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
AUD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Buy AUD/USD at 0.8749. Stop at 0.8712. Profit targets at 0.8805, 0.8847.
| What is the trend? | Up |
| What is this pattern? | Bullish Butterfly - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | Converging Fibonacci levels provide strong support @ point D. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | The AUD/USD has been in a general uptrend for over a year. Also, there is a significant low that would form a longer term double bottom on the Weekly Chart. |
Reason for Strategy
A bullish butterfly pattern is forming on the AUD/USD 1hr Chart. So far the pattern is moving with good symmetry in both price and time. There is a significant low circled on the Weekly Chart that could help for a double bottom after entering the trade as well.
Trade Invalidation
A move above 0.88887 before reaching point D would cancel the trade. Additionally, a move below 0.8712 would stop the trade out. Additional long bars in the CD leg near the entry would also invalidate this trade. Also, if the pattern comes within 10 pips of hitting the entry, does not enter, and reaches T1, the trade is also invalidated.
| Resistance 3 | N/A | N/A |
| Resistance 2 | N/A | N/A |
| Resistance 1 | N/A | N/A |
| Current Price | 0.8826 | |
| Support 1 | 0.8749 | Bullish butterfly |
| Support 2 | 0.8733 | Signficant low |
| Support 3 | N/A | N/A |
- Weekly Chart - General uptrend. Trade would enter just above significant low.
- 1hr Chart - Bullish butterfly; buy at 0.8749.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
NZD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
Our trade idea on the NZD/USD was invalidated before entering, but it would have won. I am guessing that some people left the trade on regardless and got a nice profit. Unfortunately the pair just missed entering and then dropped to just below our invalidation level before working nicely. That type of thing happens from time to time, but at least we saw the strong resistance we were looking for. We will look for new patterns to form tomorrow.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 0.7141 | 61.8% of Y1Z |
| Resistance 2 | 0.7137 | 78.6% of Y2Z |
| Resistance 1 | 0.7137 | Bearish Gartley |
| Current Price | 0.7017 | |
| Support 1 | N/A | N/A |
| Support 2 | N/A | N/A |
| Support 3 | N/A | N/A |
- 2hr Chart - We saw resistance as expected.
- 1hr Chart - Bearish Gartley was invalidated before entering.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.