EUR/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Sell EUR/USD at 1.4571. Stop at 1.4621. Profit targets at 1.4496, 1.4439.
| What is the trend? | Down |
| What is this pattern? | Bearish Butterfly - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | Converging Fibonacci levels provide strong resistance @ point D. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | 38.2% of ZY on the 8hr Chart |
Reason for Strategy
A bearish butterfly pattern is forming on the EUR/USD 1hr Chart. This pattern has excellent price symmetry, however it is still close to point C. Therefore, it has a long way to rise before entering and we have to be weary of possible invalidation scenarios. At this point, though, the trade set up looks good. The trade would also enter almost exactly at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of YZ on the 8hr Chart.
Trade Invalidation
A move below 1.4330 before reaching point D would cancel the trade. Additionally, a move above 1.4621 would stop the trade out. Long bars in the CD leg near the entry would also invalidate this trade. Also, if the pattern comes within 12 pips of hitting the entry, does not enter, and reaches T1, the trade is also invalidated.
| Resistance 3 | 1.4680 | 50% of YZ on the 8hr Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 1.4571 | Bearish butterfly |
| Resistance 1 | 1.4570 | 38.2% of YZ on the 8hr Chart |
| Current Price | 1.4367 | |
| Support 1 | N/A | N/A |
| Support 2 | N/A | N/A |
| Support 3 | N/A | N/A |
- 8hr Chart - Trade would enter at 38.2% of YZ on the 8hr Chart.
- 1hr Chart - Bearish butterfly; sell at 1.4571.
DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.
GBP/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
We have drawn a new bearish channel on the GBP/USD. We have just seen
resistance at the top of the channel. If the pair continues to drop,
the channel will continue to get stronger. We will watch for new
patterns to form within the context of the channel.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 1.6374 | 50% of XA on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 1.6216 | 38.2% of XA on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Top of channel | See 8hr Chart |
| Current Price | 1.5990 | |
| Support 1 | 1.5957 | 78.6% of AB on the Daily Chart |
| Support 2 | 1.5706 | 100% of AB on the Daily Chart |
| Support 3 | Bottom of channel | See 8hr Chart |
- Daily Chart - Will support at 1.5957 (78.6% of AB) continue to hold?
- 8hr Chart - Bearish channel.
DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.
USD/JPY (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
Yesterday we drew a bullish channel on the USD/JPY 2hr Chart. However, we have
also no risen to the top of the bearish channel on the Weekly Chart. It appears that the longer term channel has won out, because the pair has seen resistance and dropped below the bullish channel on the 4hr Chart. We will watch for new patterns to form, as well as resistance at previous support of the broken channel.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | Top of channel | See 4hr Chart |
| Resistance 2 | Top of channel | See Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Bottom of channel | See 4hr Chart |
| Current Price | 91.74 | |
| Support 1 | 90.18 | 78.6% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 2 | 87.12 | 100% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 3 | 83.22 | 127.2% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
- Weekly Chart - Bearish channel.
- 4hr Chart - Broken bullish channel.
DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.
USD/CHF (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The bearish channel we drew yesterday yielded support, so this channel now seems fairly strong. We will watch for new patterns to
emerge within the 2hr Chart channel.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 1.1104 | 50% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 1.0822 | 38.2% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Top of channel | See 2hr Chart |
| Current Price | 1.0339 | |
| Support 1 | Bottom of channel | See 2hr Chart |
| Support 2 | 1.0184 | 78.6% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 3 | 0.9609 | 100% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
- Weekly Chart - The USD/CHF have begun to rise from 1.0184 (78.6% of XA).
- 2hr Chart - Bearish channel.
DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.
USD/CAD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The USD/CAD trade from last week is invalidated because the pair
dropped down before entering the trade. There isn't much to watch on
this pair at this point, but there is a possible point of long term
support around 1.0200. Notice there is an ABCD pattern that would
complete there, 161.8% of XA on the 8hr Chart, and the previous low on
the Daily Chart (point F).
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 1.0664 | 50% of EF on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 2 | Bearish trend line | See Daily Chart |
| Resistance 1 | 1.0556 | 38.2% of EF on the Daily Chart |
| Current Price | 1.0393 | |
| Support 1 | 1.0404 | 100% of XA on the 8hr Chart |
| Support 2 | 1.0347 | 78.6% of FG on the Daily Chart |
| Support 3 | 1.0311 | 127.2% of XA on the 8hr Chart |
- Daily Chart - Potential long term support near 1.0200.
- 8hr Chart - Potential long term support near 1.0200.
DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.
AUD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The AUD/USD has seen resistance at the top of the bearish channel on the
8hr Chart. However, there is no pattern so we did not set up a trade. We will continue to watch for new patterns to develop on the 8hr
Chart.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 0.9261 | 78.6% of AD on the 8hr Chart |
| Resistance 2 | Top of channel | See 8hr Chart |
| Resistance 1 | 0.9148 | 61.8% of AD on the 8hr Chart |
| Current Price | 0.9112 | |
| Support 1 | 0.9088 | 61.8% of BC on the 8hr Chart |
| Support 2 | 0.9025 | 78.6% of BC on the 8hr Chart |
| Support 3 | 0.8944 | 100% of BC on the 8hr Chart |
- Weekly Chart - Broken bullish channel.
- 8hr Chart - Will the top of the channel hold?
DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.
NZD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
We have drawn two bearish channels on the NZD/USD 4hr Chart. It is
interesting that this channel looks virtually identical to the channel
immediately preceding it. The pair has broken above the second
channel, and we will just keep watching for new patterns to emerge.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 0.7490 | 78.6% of AD on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 0.7378 | 61.8% of AD on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Top of channel | See Daily Chart |
| Current Price | 0.7335 | |
| Support 1 | 0.7249 | 61.8% of BC on the Daily Chart |
| Support 2 | 0.7174 | 78.6% of BC on the Daily Chart |
| Support 3 | 0.7079 | 100% of BC on the Daily Chart |
- Daily Chart - Will the top of the bearish channel hold?
- 4hr Chart - Twin channel breakouts.
DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.