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| EUR/USD (Medium Term) | | Sell EUR/USD at 1.5338. Stop at 1.5436. Profit targets at 1.5168, 1.5040. |
| GBP/USD (Medium Term) | | Buy GBP/USD at 1.6118. Stop at 1.5982. Profit targets at 1.6322, 1.6474. |
| USD/JPY (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| USD/CHF (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| USD/CAD (Medium Term) | | Sell USD/CAD at 1.0674. Stop at 1.0726. Profit targets at 1.0595, 1.0534. |
| AUD/USD (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| NZD/USD (Medium Term) | | Sell NZD/USD at 0.7409. Stop at 0.7467. Profit targets at 0.7321, 0.7250. |
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
EUR/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Sell EUR/USD at 1.5338. Stop at 1.5436. Profit targets at 1.5168, 1.5040.
| What is the trend? | Down |
| What is this pattern? | Bearish Butterfly - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | Converging Fibonacci levels provide strong resistance @ point D. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | Top of channel on the Daily Chart. |
Reason for Strategy
A new bearish butterfly pattern is forming on the EUR/USD 8hr
Chart below. This trade has excellent symmetry, but it is pretty far
away from completing. However, this is the best pattern we currently
have to look at. This pattern would also complete at the top of the
channel.
Trade Invalidation
A move below 1.4800 before reaching point D would cancel the trade. Additionally, a move above 1.5436 would stop the trade out. Long bars in the CD leg near the entry would also invalidate this trade. Also, if the pattern comes within 30 pips of hitting the entry, does not enter, and reaches T1, the trade is also invalidated.
| Resistance 3 | N/A | N/A |
| Resistance 2 | Top of channel | See Daily Chart |
| Resistance 1 | 1.5338 | Bearish butterfly |
| Current Price | 1.4849 | |
| Support 1 | Bottom of channel | See Daily Chart |
| Support 2 | N/A | N/A |
| Support 3 | N/A | N/A |
- Daily Chart - Trade would enter at the top of the channel.
- 8hr Chart - Bearish butterfly; sell at 1.5338.
DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.
GBP/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Buy GBP/USD at 1.6118. Stop at 1.5982. Profit targets at 1.6322, 1.6474.
| What is the trend? | Up |
| What is this pattern? | Bullish Gartley - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | Converging Fibonacci levels provide strong support @ point D. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | None |
Reason for Strategy
A fairly long term bullish Gartley pattern is developing on the GBP/USD 8hr Chart below. The big move caused by non-farm payroll threw off any potential short term patterns. It will likely be a while before this would enter, but it is the best pattern that we have to follow at this point.
Trade Invalidation
A move above 1.6750 before reaching point D would cancel the trade. Additionally, a move below 1.5982 would stop the trade out. Long bars in the CD leg near the entry would also invalidate this trade. Also, if the pattern comes within 30 pips of hitting the entry, does not enter, and reaches T1, the trade is also invalidated.
| Resistance 3 | 1.7042 | 100% of XA on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 1.6756 | 78.6% of XA on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 1 | 1.6532 | 61.8% of XA on the Daily Chart |
| Current Price | 1.6450 | |
| Support 1 | 1.6430 | 38.2% of AB on the Daily Chart |
| Support 2 | 1.6292 | 50% of AB on the Daily Chart |
| Support 3 | 1.6118 | Bullish Gartley |
- Daily Chart - Zoomed out version of the pattern shows the context we have been following for several days.
- 8hr Chart - Bullish Gartley; buy at 1.6118.
DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.
USD/JPY (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
After the USD/JPY entered our trade, the pair move sideways until the large move generated by non-farm payroll knocked us out. There isn't much to do in this situation aside from going on to the next trade. However, this is yet another example of why stops are crucial. Imagine what this loss would be like without a stop. It would be devastating.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 109.11 | 61.8% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 104.47 | 61.8% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 1 | 99.82 | 38.2% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Current Price | 90.49 | |
| Support 1 | 90.18 | 78.6% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 2 | 87.12 | 100% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 3 | 83.22 | 127.2% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
- Weekly Chart - Bearish channel.
- 1hr Chart - Failed trade; excellent example of why stops are important.
DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.
USD/CHF (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
We have drawn a new version of the bearish channel that is more accurate than the channel we watched yesterday. So far the channel is fairly perfect, and an ABCD patterns would complete almost exactly at the to of the channel. The reason we have not set this up as a trade is because of the long bars caused by non-farm payroll. However, if the pair slows down, this could easily be made into a trade setup early next week.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 1.1104 | 50% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 1.0822 | 38.2% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Top of channel | See 8hr Chart |
| Current Price | 1.0167 | |
| Support 1 | 1.0184 | 78.6% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 2 | Bottom of channel | See 8hr Chart |
| Support 3 | 0.9609 | 100% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
- Weekly Chart - The price continues to hover near 1.0184 (78.6% of XA).
- 8hr Chart - Bearish channel.
DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.
USD/CAD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Sell USD/CAD at 1.0674. Stop at 1.0726. Profit targets at 1.0595, 1.0534.
| What is the trend? | Down |
| What is this pattern? | Bearish Gartley - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | Converging Fibonacci levels provide strong resistance @ point D. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | Bearish trend line on the Daily Chart. |
Reason for Strategy
A bearish Gartley pattern is forming on the USD/JPY 4hr Chart. We extended CD to 127.2% of AB because of long bars caused by non-farm payroll. If the pair really slows down we might go back to the standard CD, but at this time is safer to have the extended CD leg. This trade would also enter at the bearish trend line drawn on the Daily Chart.
Trade Invalidation
A move below 1.0492 before reaching point D would cancel the trade. Additionally, a move above 1.0726 would stop the trade out. Long bars in the CD leg near the entry would also invalidate this trade. Also, if the pattern comes within 15 pips of hitting the entry, does not enter, and reaches T1, the trade is also invalidated.
| Resistance 3 | 1.0785 | 38.2% of XC on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 2 | Bearish trend line | See Daily Chart |
| Resistance 1 | 1.0674 | Bearish Gartley |
| Current Price | 1.0571 | |
| Support 1 | 1.0495 | 127.2% of AB on the Daily Chart |
| Support 2 | 1.0324 | 161.8% of AB on the Daily Chart |
| Support 3 | N/A | N/A |
- Daily Chart - Trade would enter near the bearish trend line.
- 4hr Chart - Bearish Gartley; sell at 1.0674.
DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.
AUD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The AUD/USD is still moving within the bullish channel we have been watching all week. The pair hasn't formed any patterns, however, so we can't really do anything here. It is important to note that the pair broke below the bullish channel again, which could indicate some weakness on the horizon.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | Top of channel | See Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 0.9327 | Signifcant high |
| Resistance 1 | Top of channel | See 8hr Chart |
| Current Price | 0.9154 | |
| Support 1 | Bottom of channel | See Weekly Chart |
| Support 2 | Bottom of channel | See 8hr Chart |
| Support 3 | 0.8199 | 38.2% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
- Weekly Chart - Bullish channel has been broken, but still is valid.
- 8hr Chart - Bullish channel.
DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.
NZD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Sell NZD/USD at 0.7409. Stop at 0.7467. Profit targets at 0.7321, 0.7250.
| What is the trend? | Down |
| What is this pattern? | Bearish Gartley - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | Converging Fibonacci levels provide strong resistance @ point D. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | Bearish trend line and multiple candidates for point X. |
Reason for Strategy
A great pattern is emerging on the NZD/USD 8hr Chart. There are two possible candidates for point X that converge at almost the exact same spot. Those two points also could form a perfect trend line if the pattern completes as drawn. The one issue is that the pair is just above point C, so even a small move down could invalidate this trade.
Trade Invalidation
A move below 0.7125 before reaching point D would cancel the trade. Additionally, a move above 0.7467 would stop the trade out. Long bars in the CD leg near the entry would also invalidate this trade. Also, if the pattern comes within 20 pips of hitting the entry, does not enter, and reaches T1, the trade is also invalidated.
| Resistance 3 | 0.7503 | 78.6% of AC on the 8hr Chart |
| Resistance 2 | Bearish trend line | See 8hr Chart |
| Resistance 1 | 0.7409 | Bearish Gartley |
| Current Price | 0.7175 | |
| Support 1 | 0.7174 | 78.6% of BC on 8hr Chart |
| Support 2 | 0.7079 | 100% of BC on the 8hr Chart |
| Support 3 | 0.6958 | 127.2% of BC on the 8hr Chart |
- 8hr Chart - Trade would enter near the bearish trend line.
- 8hr Chart - Bearish Gartley; sell at 0.7409.
DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.