EUR/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Sell EUR/USD at 1.5338. Stop at 1.5436. Profit targets at 1.5168, 1.5040.
| What is the trend? | Down |
| What is this pattern? | Bearish Butterfly - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | Converging Fibonacci levels provide strong resistance @ point D. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | Top of channel on the Daily Chart. |
Reason for Strategy
A new bearish butterfly pattern has nearly completed on the EUR/USD 8hr
Chart below. This trade has excellent symmetry, but it is pretty far
away from completing. However, this is the best pattern we currently
have to look at. This pattern would also complete at the top of the
channel.
Trade Invalidation
A move below 1.4800 before reaching point D would cancel the trade. Additionally, a move above 1.5436 would stop the trade out. Long bars in the CD leg near the entry would also invalidate this trade. Also, if the pattern comes within 30 pips of hitting the entry, does not enter, and reaches T1, the trade is also invalidated.
| Resistance 3 | N/A | N/A |
| Resistance 2 | Top of channel | See Daily Chart |
| Resistance 1 | 1.5338 | Bearish butterfly |
| Current Price | 1.5006 | |
| Support 1 | Bottom of channel | See Daily Chart |
| Support 2 | N/A | N/A |
| Support 3 | N/A | N/A |
- Daily Chart - Trade would enter at the top of the channel.
- 8hr Chart - Bearish butterfly; sell at 1.5338.
DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.
GBP/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
We have drawn a new bearish channel on the GBP/USD 4hr Chart. The
channel has already been briefly pierced, but the pair quickly ran back
into the channel. We will watch for new
patterns to form within the context of either of these charts.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 1.7042 | 100% of XA on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 1.6754 | 78.6% of XA on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 1 | 1.6532 | 61.8% of XA on the Daily Chart |
| Current Price | 1.6440 | |
| Support 1 | 1.6430 | 38.2% of AB on the Daily Chart |
| Support 2 | 1.6292 | 50% of AB on the Daily Chart |
| Support 3 | 1.6153 | 61.8% of AB on the Daily Chart |
- Daily Chart - Wild moves have thrown off patterns.
- 4hr Chart - Fairly weak bearish channel.
DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.
USD/JPY (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Buy USD/JPY at 85.60. Stop at 85.35. Profit targets at 85.97, 86.27.
| What is the trend? | Up |
| What is this pattern? | Bearish Butterfly - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | Converging Fibonacci levels provide strong support @ point D. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | None |
Reason for Strategy
A relatively short term bullish Gartley is forming on the USD/JPY 30min
Chart below. Although we are still in a long term downtrend (as shown
on the Weekly Chart), this is a short term trade that isn't suggesting
the overall trend will reverse. The trade looks like it could complete
with excellent symmetry in both price and time.
Trade Invalidation
A move above 88.80 before reaching point D would cancel the trade. Additionally, a move below 85.35 would stop the trade out. Long bars in the CD leg near the entry would also invalidate this trade. Also, if the pattern comes within 8 pips of hitting the entry, does not enter, and reaches T1, the trade is also invalidated.
| Resistance 3 | 109.11 | 61.8% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 104.47 | 50% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 1 | 99.82 | 38.2% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Current Price | 86.33 | |
| Support 1 | 85.60 | Bullish Gartley |
| Support 2 | 83.22 | 127.2% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 3 | 78.27 | 161.8% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
- Weekly Chart - Bearish channel.
- 30min Chart - Bullish Gartley; buy at 85.60.
DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.
USD/CHF (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
We have drawn a new bearish channel on the USD/CHF 4hr Chart. There
have been some small breaches in the channel, but overall it has held
pretty well. We will watch for new patterns to form within the context
of the channel.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 1.1104 | 50% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 1.0822 | 38.2% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Top of channel | See 4hr Chart |
| Current Price | 1.0052 | |
| Support 1 | Bottom of channel | See 4hr Chart |
| Support 2 | 0.9609 | 100% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 3 | 0.8878 | 127.2% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
- Weekly Chart - Has support at 1.0184 finally been broken?
- 4hr Chart - Bearish channel.
DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.
USD/CAD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
We have drawn a new bullish channel on the USD/CAD 4hr Chart below. The channel is relatively flat, but has shown very nice symmetry. We will now watch for patterns that may form within the context of the channel.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 1.0964 | 50% of XC on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 1.0785 | 38.2% of XC on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Top of channel | See 4hr Chart |
| Current Price | 1.0559 | |
| Support 1 | Bottom of channel | See 4hr Chart |
| Support 2 | 1.0495 | 127.2% of AB on the Daily Chart |
| Support 3 | 1.0324 | 161.8% of AB on the Daily Chart |
- Daily Chart - Sporadic price action not lending itself to forming forming our patterns.
- 4hr Chart - Bullish channel.
DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.
AUD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The AUD/USD experienced a large drop before entering our bearish
pattern last week. The move down is significant because it was the first time
the pair dropped below the bottom of the channel on the Weekly Chart.
We have also drawn a new bullish channel on the 8hr Chart as well. We
will watch for new patterns to form within the context of the channel.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | Top of channel | See Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 0.9327 | Signifcant high |
| Resistance 1 | Top of channel | See 8hr Chart |
| Current Price | 0.9167 | |
| Support 1 | Bottom of channel | See Weekly Chart |
| Support 2 | Bottom of channel | See 8hr Chart |
| Support 3 | 0.8199 | 38.2% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
- Weekly Chart - Bullish channel has been broken.
- 8hr Chart - Bullish channel.
DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.
NZD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The NZD/USD shot down before reaching our bearish trade from last week. We have drawn an ABCD pattern that would complete near the
127.2% of BC on the 8hr Chart. At this point, it looks like this ABCD may have lost its symmetry. We have also drawn a bearish channel on
the 4hr Chart that has provide solid support and resistance.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 0.7329 | 50% of AD on the 8hr Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 0.7256 | 38.2% of AD on the 8hr Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Top of channel | See 4hr Chart |
| Current Price | 0.7166 | |
| Support 1 | Bottom of channel | See 4hr Chart |
| Support 2 | 0.7079 | 100% of BC on the 8hr Chart |
| Support 3 | 0.6958 | 127.2% of BC on the 8hr Chart |
- 8hr Chart - ABCD has lost some of its symmetry.
- 4hr Chart - Bearish channel.
DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.