EUR/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Sell EUR/USD at 1.5338. Stop at 1.5445. Profit targets at 1.5168, 1.5040.
| What is the trend? | Down |
| What is this pattern? | Bearish Butterfly - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | Converging Fibonacci levels provide strong resistance @ point D. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | Top of channel on the Daily Chart. |
Reason for Strategy
A new bearish butterfly pattern has nearly completed on the EUR/USD 8hr
Chart below. This trade has excellent symmetry, but it is pretty far away from completing. However, this is the best pattern we currently have to look at. This pattern would also complete at the top of the channel.
Trade Invalidation
A move below 1.4800 before reaching point D would cancel the trade. Additionally, a move above 1.5445 would stop the trade out. Long bars in the CD leg near the entry would also invalidate this trade. Also, if the pattern comes within 30 pips of hitting the entry, does not enter, and reaches T1, the trade is also invalidated.
| Resistance 3 | N/A | N/A |
| Resistance 2 | Top of channel | See Daily Chart |
| Resistance 1 | 1.5338 | Bearish butterfly |
| Current Price | 1.4960 | |
| Support 1 | Bottom of channel | See Daily Chart |
| Support 2 | N/A | N/A |
| Support 3 | N/A | N/A |
- Daily Chart - Trade would enter at the top of the channel.
- 8hr Chart - Bearish butterfly; sell at 1.5338.
DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.
GBP/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
We have drawn a new bearish channel on the GBP/USD 2hr Chart. The channel has already been briefly pierced, but the pair quickly ran back into the channel. We will watch for new
patterns to form within the context of either of these charts.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 1.6532 | 61.8% of XA on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 2 | Top of channel | See 2hr Chart |
| Resistance 1 | 1.6756 | 78.6% of XA on the Daily Chart |
| Current Price | 1.6462 | |
| Support 1 | 1.6430 | 38.2% of AB on the Daily Chart |
| Support 2 | 1.6292 | 50% of AB on the Daily Chart |
| Support 3 | Bottom of channel | See 2hr Chart |
- Daily Chart - Wild moves have thrown off patterns.
- 2hr Chart - Fairly weak bearish channel.
DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.
USD/JPY (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
If you still don't think stops are a good idea, I present this trade to
you. Not every setup works, and this one broke very hard after
initially seeing a little support. This also shows how you should be
very cautious when going against the long term trend. Regardless, this
was a solid trade, and a great example of why stops are essential
(especially with this methodology).
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 109.11 | 61.8% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 104.47 | 50% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 1 | 99.82 | 38.2% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Current Price | 86.43 | |
| Support 1 | 87.12 | 100% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 2 | 83.22 | 127.2% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 3 | 78.27 | 161.8% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
- Weekly Chart - Bearish channel.
- 2hr Chart - Broken bullish butterfly, why we use stops.
DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.
USD/CHF (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
We have drawn a new bearish channel on the USD/CHF 4hr Chart. There have been some small breaches in the channel, but overall it has held pretty well. We will watch for new patterns to form within the context of the channel.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 1.1104 | 50% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 1.0822 | 38.2% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Top of channel | See 4hr Chart |
| Current Price | 1.0054 | |
| Support 1 | Bottom of channel | See 4hr Chart |
| Support 2 | 0.9609 | 100% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 3 | 0.8878 | 127.2% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
- Weekly Chart - Has support at 1.0184 finally been broken?
- 4hr Chart - Bearish channel.
DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.
USD/CAD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
Our USD/CAD bearish Gartley completed and has reached both profit
targets. Although there were somewhat long bars, but that is part of
the reason why we made CD 127.2% of AB. The big swings over the past couple days have thrown off any new potential patterns. We will watch for new patterns
to emerge because there is no clear pattern at this point.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 1.1143 | 61.8% of XC on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 1.0964 | 50% of XC on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 1 | 1.0785 | 38.2% of XC on the Daily Chart |
| Current Price | 1.0626 | |
| Support 1 | 1.0629 | 100% of AB on the Daily Chart |
| Support 2 | 1.0495 | 127.2% of AB on the Daily Chart |
| Support 3 | 1.0324 | 161.8% of AB on the Daily Chart |
- Daily Chart - Sporadic price action not lending itself to forming forming our patterns.
- 4hr Chart - Complete bearish Gartley.
DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.
AUD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The AUD/USD experienced a large drop before entering our bearish pattern. The move down is significant because it was the first time the pair dropped below the bottom of the channel on the Weekly Chart. We have also drawn a new bullish channel on the 8hr Chart as well. We will watch for new patterns to form within the context of the channel.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | Top of channel | See Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 0.9327 | Signifcant high |
| Resistance 1 | Top of channel | See 8hr Chart |
| Current Price | 0.9061 | |
| Support 1 | Bottom of channel | See Weekly Chart |
| Support 2 | Bottom of channel | See 8hr Chart |
| Support 3 | 0.8199 | 38.2% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
- Weekly Chart - Bullish channel has been broken.
- 8hr Chart - Bullish channel.
DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.
NZD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The NZD/USD shot down before reaching our bearish trade from earlier in the week. We have drawn an ABCD pattern that would complete near the 127.2% of BC on the 8hr Chart. We have also drawn a bearish channel on the 2hr Chart. We won't place a trade based on any of this yet, but it is possible a trade could be put up next week.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 0.7356 | 50% of AB on the 8hr Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 0.7291 | 38.2% of AB on the 8hr Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Top of channel | See 2hr Chart |
| Current Price | 0.7108 | |
| Support 1 | 0.7079 | 100% of BC on the 8hr Chart |
| Support 2 | Bottom of channel | See 2hr Chart |
| Support 3 | 0.6958 | 127.2% of BC on the 8hr Chart |
- 8hr Chart - ABCD would complete at 127.2% of BC.
- 2hr Chart - Bearish channel.
DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.