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Swing Technicals- EUR/USD Approaching Short at 1.5223
Last updated 25 November 2009 05:58 PM ET (GMT -5)
| EUR/USD (Medium Term) | | Sell EUR/USD at 1.5223. Stop at 1.5318. Profit targets at 1.5081, 1.4975. |
| GBP/USD (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| USD/JPY (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| USD/CHF (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| USD/CAD (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| AUD/USD (Medium Term) | | Sell AUD/USD at 0.9588. Stop at 0.9709. Profit targets at 0.9406, 0.9275. |
| NZD/USD (Medium Term) | | Sell NZD/USD at 0.7399. Stop at 0.7437. Profit targets at 0.7343, 0.7297. |
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
EUR/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Sell EUR/USD at 1.5223. Stop at 1.5318. Profit targets at 1.5081, 1.4975.
| What is the trend? | Down |
| What is this pattern? | Bearish Butterfly - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | Converging Fibonacci levels provide strong resistance @ point D. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | Top of channel on the Daily Chart. |
Reason for Strategy
A bearish butterfly pattern has nearly completed on the EUR/USD 8hr Chart below. The ABCD extends a little beyond the Fibonacci extensions, but we put the entry there. The reason we selected that sell entry is because there is a little bit of long bar on the 8hr Chart and because it is closer to the top of the channel on the Daily Chart.
Trade Invalidation
A move below 1.5012 before reaching point D would cancel the trade. Additionally, a move above 1.5318 would stop the trade out. Long bars in the CD leg near the entry would also invalidate this trade. Also, if the pattern comes within 40 pips of hitting the entry, does not enter, and reaches T1, the trade is also invalidated.
| Resistance 3 | N/A | N/A |
| Resistance 2 | Top of channel | See Daily Chart |
| Resistance 1 | 1.5223 | Bearish butterfly |
| Current Price | 1.5137 | |
| Support 1 | Bottom of channel | See Daily Chart |
| Support 2 | N/A | N/A |
| Support 3 | N/A | N/A |
- Daily Chart - Trade would enter near the top of the channel.
- 8hr Chart - Bearish butterfly; sell at 1.5223.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
GBP/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
We have drawn a new bullish channel on the GBP/USD 4hr Chart. This channel has been fairly strong at this point and could provide a good context in which to find a trade. We also slightly redrew the Daily Chart, which now is more accurate in my opinion. We will watch for new patterns to form within the context of either of these charts.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 1.7042 | 100% of XA on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 2 | Top of channel | See 4hr Chart |
| Resistance 1 | 1.6756 | 78.6% of XA on the Daily Chart |
| Current Price | 1.6708 | |
| Support 1 | Bottom of channel | See 4hr Chart |
| Support 2 | 1.6430 | 38.2% of AB on the Daily Chart |
| Support 3 | 1.6292 | 50% of AB on the Daily Chart |
- Daily Chart - Have we seen major support at 1.6756?
- 4hr Chart - Bullish channel.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USD/JPY (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
If you still don't think stops are a good idea, I present this trade to you. Not ever set up works, and this one broke very hard after initially seeing a little support. This also shows how you should be very cautious when going against the long term trend. Regardless, this was a solid trade, and a great example of why stops are essential (especially with this methodology).
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 109.99 | 61.8% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 105.63 | 50% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 1 | 101.26 | 38.2% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Current Price | 87.41 | |
| Support 1 | 87.12 | 100% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 2 | 83.22 | 127.2% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 3 | 78.27 | 161.8% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
- Weekly Chart - Bearish channel.
- 1hr Chart - Broken bullish channel and a great example of why we use stops.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USD/CHF (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
A very nice channel on the USD/CHF broke in the past 24 hours. Usually if a channel breaks that is very strong, it breaks hard. In my opinion, the reason for this is that it is more clear to traders when the trend line breaks. When a trend line is not perfect, there are more interpretations as to whether it has broken so the break isn't as definitive. Also, this may signal an end to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement providing any support at 1.0184.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 1.1402 | 61.8% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 1.1126 | 50% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 1 | 1.0850 | 38.2% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Current Price | 0.9962 | |
| Support 1 | 0.9609 | 100% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 2 | 0.8878 | 127.2% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 3 | N/A | N/A |
- Weekly Chart - Has support at 1.0184 finally been broken?
- 2hr Chart - Broken bullish channel.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USD/CAD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
Our USD/CAD bearish Gartley completed and has reached both profit
targets. Although there were somewhat long bars, but that is part of
the reason why we made CD 127.2% of AB. We will watch for new patterns
to emerge because there is no clear pattern at this point.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 1.1143 | 61.8% of XC on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 1.0964 | 50% of XC on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 1 | 1.0785 | 38.2% of XC on the Daily Chart |
| Current Price | 1.0449 | |
| Support 1 | 1.0495 | 127.2% of AB on the Daily Chart |
| Support 2 | 1.0324 | 161.8% of AB on the Daily Chart |
| Support 3 | 1.0205 | Significant low |
- Daily Chart - Will the downtrend continue?
- 4hr Chart - Completed bearish Gartley.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
AUD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Sell AUD/USD at 0.9588. Stop at 0.9709. Profit targets at 0.9406, 0.9275.
| What is the trend? | Down |
| What is this pattern? | Bearish Butterfly - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | Converging Fibonacci levels provide strong resistance @ point D. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | None |
Reason for Strategy
A fairly long term bearish butterfly pattern is forming on the AUD/USD
8hr Chart below. This trade could take a while to complete, but it is
the best pattern to watch on the AUD/USD at this time. This would also
go against the long term trend. However, keep in mind this would be a
brief move down in the context of the Weekly Chart bullish channel, not
a long term trend reversal.
Trade Invalidation
A move below 0.9050 before reaching point D would cancel the trade. Additionally, a move above 0.9709 would stop the trade out. Long bars in the CD leg near the entry would also invalidate this trade. Also, if the pattern comes within 30 pips of hitting the entry, does not enter, and reaches T1, the trade is also invalidated.
| Resistance 3 | Top of channel | See Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 0.9588 | Bearish butterfly |
| Resistance 1 | 0.9327 | Significant high |
| Current Price | 0.9321 | |
| Support 1 | Bottom of channel | See Weekly Chart |
| Support 2 | 0.8199 | 38.2% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 3 | 0.7827 | 50% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
- Weekly Chart - Bullish channel.
- 8hr Chart - Bearish butterfly; sell at 0.9588.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
NZD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Sell NZD/USD at 0.7399. Stop at 0.7437. Profit targets at 0.7343, 0.7297.
| What is the trend? | Down |
| What is this pattern? | Bearish Gartley - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | Converging Fibonacci levels provide strong resistance @ point D. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | Entry is just below 61.8% of YZ on the 8hr Chart. |
Reason for Strategy
A bearish Gartley pattern is forming on the NZD/USD 2hr Chart. There
isn't a great context for this trade to work within, but the trade
would complete just below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of YZ on the
8hr Chart.
Trade Invalidation
A move below 0.7217 before reaching point D would cancel the trade. Additionally, a move above 0.7437 would stop the trade out. Long bars in the CD leg near the entry would also invalidate this trade. Also, if the pattern comes within 12 pips of hitting the entry, does not enter, and reaches T1, the trade is also invalidated.
| Resistance 3 | 0.7515 | 78.6% of YZ on the 8hr Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 0.7422 | 61.8% of YZ on the 8hr Chart |
| Resistance 1 | 0.7399 | Bearish Gartley |
| Current Price | 0.7327 | |
| Support 1 | 0.7249 | 61.8% of Z1 on the 8hr Chart |
| Support 2 | 0.7174 | 78.6 of Z1 on the 8hr Chart |
| Support 3 | 0.7079 | Significant low |
- 8hr Chart - Trade would enter just below 61.8% of YZ.
- 2hr Chart - Bearish Gartley; sell at 0.7399.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.