EUR/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
We have drawn an ABCD pattern
on the 4hr Chart that could converge with the bottom of the newly drawn
bearish channel. The ABCD would also complete near the bottom of the
bullish channel on the Daily Chart. We have not set up a trade yet,
but we could see some support near the circles areas on each chart.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | N/A | N/A |
| Resistance 2 | Top of channel | See Daily Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Top of channel | See 4hr Chart |
| Current Price | 1.4861 | |
| Support 1 | 1.4886 | 38.2% of AB on the 4hr Chart |
| Support 2 | 1.4836 | 50% of AB on the 4hr Chart |
| Support 3 | 1.4787 | 61.8% of AB on the 4hr Chart |
- Daily Chart - Bullish channel.
- 4hr Chart - Bearish channel.
DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.
GBP/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The Gartley pattern we posted last Friday has been invalidated because
the pair rose above point A. Therefore, we have drawn a new bullish
channel. The channel has been broken, but the break is somewhat minor at this point. Next week should give us a better idea of where this pair is headed.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 1.7379 | 161.8% of XA on the 8hr Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 1.7021 | 127.2% of XA on the 8hr Chart |
| Resistance 1 | 1.6740 | 100% of XA on the 8hr Chart |
| Current Price | 1.6501 | |
| Support 1 | 1.6430 | 38.2% of AB on the 8hr Chart |
| Support 2 | 1.6292 | 50% of AB on the 8hr Chart |
| Support 3 | 1.6153 | 61.8% of AB on the 8hr Chart |
- 8hr Chart - Have we seen major resistance?
- 4hr Chart - Broken bullish channel.
DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.
USD/JPY (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
We have drawn a bearish channel on the USD/JPY after the pair
dropped down before entering the bearish pattern from two days ago. There is a potential bullish butterfly that is near completion, but I don't feel comfortable posting it because it nearly entered and then bounced up to 38.2% of that potential CD. Therefore, we will
watch for new patterns to develop within the context of the bearish
channel.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 109.99 | 61.8% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 105.63 | 50% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 1 | 101.26 | 38.2% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Current Price | 88.87 | |
| Support 1 | 87.12 | 100% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 2 | 83.22 | 127.2% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 3 | 78.27 | 161.8% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
- Weekly Chart - Bearish channel.
- 4hr Chart - Bearish channel.
DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.
USD/CHF (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Sell USD/CHF at 1.0238. Stop at 1.0283. Profit targets at 1.0171, 1.0119.
| What is the trend? | Down |
| What is this pattern? | Bearish 3-Drive - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | Converging Fibonacci levels provide strong resistance @ point 3. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | Bearish trend line on the Weekly Chart. |
Reason for Strategy
A bearish 3 drives patterns is forming on the 2hr Chart. As long time
readers will see, this is basically a bearish butterfly with one extra
component. This allows us to measure our profit targets a little
differently, and gives us some more time for the pattern to work
without hurting our risk:reward ratio. There is another ABCD
pattern forming with the C3 leg as well. The pattern also would enter
near a bearish trend line on the Weekly Chart.
Trade Invalidation
A move below 1.0127 before reaching point D would cancel the trade. Additionally, a move above 1.0283 would stop the trade out. Long bars in the CD leg near the entry would also invalidate this trade. Also, if the pattern comes within 10 pips of hitting the entry, does not enter, and reaches T1, the trade is also invalidated.
| Resistance 3 | 1.1164 | 50% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 1.0897 | 38.2% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 1 | 1.0238 | Bearish 3 drives patterns |
| Current Price | 1.0179 | |
| Support 1 | 0.9609 | 100% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 2 | 0.8878 | 127.2% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 3 | N/A | N/A |
- Weekly Chart - Trade would enter near bearish trend line.
- 2hr Chart - Bearish 3 drives pattern; sell at 1.0238.
DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.
USD/CAD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Sell USD/CAD at 1.0702. Stop at 1.0758. Profit targets at 1.0627, 1.0560.
| What is the trend? | Down |
| What is this pattern? | Bearish Gartley - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | Converging Fibonacci levels provide strong resistance @ point D. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | Bearish trend line on the Daily Chart. |
Reason for Strategy
A bearish Gartley pattern has completed on the USD/CAD 4hr Chart. We have
made CD 127.2% of AB and there have been long bars in CD suggesting
that we made the right call so far. There
are two candidates for point X, which both provide resistance near the
same point. The trade has also entered near the bearish trend line on
the Daily Chart. We have slightly altered the profit targets because the pair reached a point a little higher than we estimated after entering. Also, the trade can still be entered at 1.0702 or above until the trade is either stopped out or hits T1 (1.0627).
Trade Invalidation
The trade would be stopped out at 1.0758.
| Resistance 3 | 1.0964 | 50% of XC on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 1.0785 | 38.2% of XC on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 1 | 1.0702 | Bearish Gartley |
| Current Price | 1.0704 | |
| Support 1 | 1.0629 | 100% of AB on the Daily Chart |
| Support 2 | 1.0627 | 38.2% of CD |
| Support 3 | 1.0560 | 61.8% of CD |
- Daily Chart - Trade has entered at the bearish trend line.
- 4hr Chart - Bearish Gartley; sell at 1.0702.
DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.
AUD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The AUD/USD dropped down before entering our pattern from two days ago.
Therefore, we have drawn a bearish channel on the 1hr Chart below.
The channel isn't perfect, but it is all we have to go on for now. At this point we will watch for new patterns in the context with the
shorter term bearish channel or at the bottom of the channel on the
Weekly Chart.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | Top of channel | See Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 2 | Top of channel | See 1hr Chart |
| Resistance 1 | 0.9327 | Significant high |
| Current Price | 0.9145 | |
| Support 1 | Bottom of channel | See 1hr Chart |
| Support 2 | Bottom of channel | See Weekly Chart |
| Support 3 | 0.8199 | 38.2% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
- Weekly Chart - Bullish channel.
- 1hr Chart - Bearish channel.
DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.
NZD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The NZD/USD has been tough to deal with since the large gap from two
weekends ago. There is not a whole lot of symmetry here and this is
a fairly weak bullish channel. To make matters worse, the pair has
dropped below the bottom of the channel. However, this has covered the gap, so next week we will likely be able to resume trading this pair.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | Bottom of channel | See Daily Chart |
| Resistance 2 | Top of channel | See 4hr Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Bottom of channel | See 4hr Chart |
| Current Price | 0.7239 | |
| Support 1 | 0.7249 | 61.8% of XA |
| Support 2 | 0.7174 | 78.6% of XA |
| Support 3 | 0.7079 | 100% of XA |
- Daily Chart - Broken bullish channel.
- 4hr Chart - Broken bullish channel.
DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.