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Swing Technicals- USD/JPY Approaching Short Opportunity at 89.88
Last updated 18 November 2009 06:02 PM ET (GMT -5)
| EUR/USD (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| GBP/USD (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| USD/JPY (Medium Term) | | Sell USD/JPY at 89.88. Stop at 90.07. Profit targets at 89.60, 89.38. |
| USD/CHF (Medium Term) | | Sell USD/CHF at 1.0238. Stop at 1.0283. Profit targets at 1.0171, 1.0119. |
| USD/CAD (Medium Term) | | Sell USD/CAD at 1.0702. Stop at 1.0758. Profit targets at 1.0618, 1.0555. |
| AUD/USD (Medium Term) | | Sell AUD/USD at 0.9369. Stop at 0.9391. Profit targets at 0.9336, 0.9310. |
| NZD/USD (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
EUR/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
A move up has invalidated our trade yesterday, but there are still some interesting developments in this pair. We have drawn an ABCD pattern on the 4hr Chart that could converge with the bottom of the newly drawn bearish channel. The ABCD would also complete near the bottom of the bullish channel on the Daily Chart. We have not set up a trade yet, but we could see some support near the circles areas on each chart.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | N/A | N/A |
| Resistance 2 | Top of channel | See Daily Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Top of channel | See 4hr Chart |
| Current Price | 1.4960 | |
| Support 1 | 1.4886 | 38.2% of XA on the 4hr Chart |
| Support 2 | 1.4836 | 50% of XA on the 4hr Chart |
| Support 3 | 1.4787 | 61.8% of XA on the 4hr Chart |
- Daily Chart - Bullish channel.
- 4hr Chart - Bearish channel.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
GBP/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The Gartley pattern we posted last Friday has been invalidated because
the pair rose above point A. Therefore, we have drawn a new bullish
channel. The channel is clean so far, but there have not been many
points of contact. Still, we will watch for new patterns to form
within the the bullish channel.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 1.7021 | 127.2% of XA on the 8hr Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 1.6740 | 100% of XA on the 8hr Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Top of channel | See 4hr Chart |
| Current Price | 1.6741 | |
| Support 1 | Bottom of channel | See 4hr Chart |
| Support 2 | 1.6430 | 38.2% of AB on the 8hr Chart |
| Support 3 | 1.6292 | 50% of AB on the 8hr Chart |
- 8hr Chart - New high, when will we see resistance?
- 4hr Chart - Bullish channel.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USD/JPY (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Sell USD/JPY at 89.88. Stop at 90.07. Profit targets at 89.60, 89.38.
| What is the trend? | Down |
| What is this pattern? | Bearish Gartley - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | Converging Fibonacci levels provide strong resistance @ point D. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | Top of bearish channel on the 4hr Chart. |
Reason for Strategy
A bearish Gartley pattern is forming on the USD/JPY 1hr Chart. The trade is forming nicely so far, and it would also enter near the top of the channel on the 4hr Chart. This is a textbook example of a Gartley.
Trade Invalidation
A move below 88.95 before reaching point D would cancel the trade. Additionally, a move above 90.07 would stop the trade out. Long bars in the CD leg near the entry would also invalidate this trade. Also, if the pattern comes within 10 pips of hitting the entry, does not enter, and reaches T1, the trade is also invalidated.
| Resistance 3 | N/A | N/A |
| Resistance 2 | Top of channel | See 4hr Chart |
| Resistance 1 | 89.88 | Bearish Gartley |
| Current Price | 89.31 | |
| Support 1 | Bottom of channel | See 4hr Chart |
| Support 2 | N/A | N/A |
| Support 3 | N/A | N/A |
- 4hr Chart - Trade would enter near the top of the bearish channel.
- 1hr Chart - Bearish Gartley; sell at 89.88.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USD/CHF (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Sell USD/CHF at 1.0238. Stop at 1.0283. Profit targets at 1.0171, 1.0119.
| What is the trend? | Down |
| What is this pattern? | Bearish 3-Drive - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | Converging Fibonacci levels provide strong resistance @ point 3. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | Bearish trend line on the Weekly Chart. |
Reason for Strategy
A bearish 3 drives patterns is forming on the 2hr Chart. As long time readers will see, this is basically a bearish butterfly with one extra component. This allows us to measure our profit targets a little differently, and gives us some more time for the pattern to work without hurting our risk:reward ratio. The pattern also would enter near a bearish trend line on the Weekly Chart.
Trade Invalidation
A move below 1.0070 before reaching point D would cancel the trade. Additionally, a move above 1.0283 would stop the trade out. Long bars in the CD leg near the entry would also invalidate this trade. Also, if the pattern comes within 10 pips of hitting the entry, does not enter, and reaches T1, the trade is also invalidated.
| Resistance 3 | 1.1164 | 50% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 1.0897 | 38.2% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 1 | 1.0238 | Bearish 3 drives patterns |
| Current Price | 1.0096 | |
| Support 1 | 0.9609 | 100% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 2 | 0.8878 | 127.2% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 3 | N/A | N/A |
- Weekly Chart - Trade would enter near bearish trend line.
- 2hr Chart - Bearish 3 drives pattern; sell at 1.0238.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USD/CAD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Sell USD/CAD at 1.0702. Stop at 1.0758. Profit targets at 1.0618, 1.0555.
| What is the trend? | Down |
| What is this pattern? | Bearish Gartley - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | Converging Fibonacci levels provide strong resistance @ point D. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | Bearish trend line on the Daily Chart. |
Reason for Strategy
A bearish Gartley pattern is forming on the USD/CAD 4hr Chart. This pattern is slightly different then yesterday because point C is lower and we have made CD 127.2% of AB. There
are two candidates for point X, which both provide resistance near the
same point. The trade would also enter near the bearish trend line on
the Daily Chart.
Trade Invalidation
A move below 1.0445 before reaching point D would cancel the trade. Additionally, a move above 1.0758 would stop the trade out. Long bars in the CD leg near the entry would also invalidate this trade. Also, if the pattern comes within 10 pips of hitting the entry, does not enter, and reaches T1, the trade is also invalidated.
| Resistance 3 | 1.0964 | 50% of XC on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 1.0785 | 38.2% of XC on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 1 | 1.0702 | Bearish Gartley |
| Current Price | 1.0547 | |
| Support 1 | 1.0495 | 127.2% of AB on the Daily Chart |
| Support 2 | 1.0324 | 161.8% of AB on the Daily Chart |
| Support 3 | 1.0205 | Significant low |
- Daily Chart - Trade would enter near the bearish trend line.
- 4hr Chart - Bearish Gartley; sell at 1.0702.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
AUD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Sell AUD/USD at 0.9369. Stop at 0.9391. Profit targets at 0.9336, 0.9310.
| What is the trend? | Down |
| What is this pattern? | Bearish Gartley - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | Converging Fibonacci levels provide strong resistance @ point D. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | None |
Reason for Strategy
A bearish Gartley pattern is forming on the AUD/USD 30min Chart. Although there are not any "extras", this is a very nice pattern that we will still track.
Trade Invalidation
A move below 0.9260 before reaching point D would cancel the trade. Additionally, a move above 0.9391 would stop the trade out. Long bars in the CD leg near the entry would also invalidate this trade. Also, if the pattern comes within 10 pips of hitting the entry, does not enter, and reaches T1, the trade is also invalidated.
| Resistance 3 | Top of channel | See Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 0.9327 | Signifcant high |
| Resistance 1 | 0.9369 | Bearish Gartley |
| Current Price | 0.9297 | |
| Support 1 | Bottom of channel | See Weekly Chart |
| Support 2 | 0.8199 | 38.2% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 3 | 0.7827 | 50% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
- Weekly Chart - Bullish channel.
- 30min Chart - Bearish Gartley; sell at 0.9369.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
NZD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The NZD/USD has been tough to deal with since the large gap from last
weekend's open. There is not a whole lot of symmetry here and this is
a fairly weak bullish channel. We will likely stay away
from this one for a while because of the extreme gap.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | Top of channel | See Daily Chart |
| Resistance 2 | Bottom of channel | See Daily Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Top of channel | See 2hr Chart |
| Current Price | 0.7459 | |
| Support 1 | Bottom of channel | See 2hr Chart |
| Support 2 | N/A | N/A |
| Support 3 | N/A | N/A |
- Daily Chart - Broken bullish channel with possible resistance at the bottom trend line.
- 2hr Chart - Bullish channel.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.