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Swing Technicals- USD/JPY Near Long Entry at 88.60
Last updated 16 November 2009 05:53 PM ET (GMT -5)
| EUR/USD (Medium Term) | | Buy EUR/USD at 1.4713. Stop at 1.4655. Profit targets at 1.4820, 1.4895. |
| GBP/USD (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| USD/JPY (Medium Term) | | Buy USD/JPY at 88.60. Stop at 88.14. Profit targets at 89.28, 89.79. |
| USD/CHF (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| USD/CAD (Medium Term) | | Buy USD/CAD at 1.0375. Stop at 1.0343. Profit targets at 1.0423, 1.0460. |
| AUD/USD (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
| NZD/USD (Medium Term) | | Wait until a new pattern emerges. |
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
EUR/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Buy EUR/USD at 1.4713. Stop at 1.4655. Profit targets at 1.4820, 1.4895.
| What is the trend? | Up |
| What is this pattern? | Bullish Gartley - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | Converging Fibonacci levels provide strong support @ point D. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | Bullish channel on Daily Chart. |
Reason for Strategy
A bullish Gartley pattern is forming on the EUR/USD 2hr Chart. This pattern is slightly different then the one we posted last Friday because Point C is higher. To make it work, we also have to assume that CD will have some long bars and move to 127.2% of AB. The
pattern still has a long way to go until entry, but it is still worth
drawing at this point. The pair could quickly be invalidated, in which
case we will redraw the pattern next week.
Trade Invalidation
A move above 1.5020 before reaching point D would cancel the trade. Additionally, a move below 1.4655 would stop the trade out. Long bars in the CD leg near the entry would also invalidate this trade. Also, if the pattern comes within 15 pips of hitting the entry, does not enter, and reaches T1, the trade is also invalidated.
| Resistance 3 | N/A | N/A |
| Resistance 2 | N/A | N/A |
| Resistance 1 | Top of channel | See Daily Chart |
| Current Price | 1.4974 | |
| Support 1 | 1.4713 | Bullish Gartley |
| Support 2 | Bottom of channel | See Daily Chart |
| Support 3 | N/A | N/A |
- Daily Chart - Trade would enter near the bottom of the bullish channel.
- 2hr Chart - Bullish Gartley; buy at 1.4713.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
GBP/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The Gartley pattern we posted last Friday has been invalidated because the pair rose above point A. Therefore, we have drawn a new bullish channel. The channel is clean so far, but there have not been many points of contact. Still, we will watch for new patterns to form within the the bullish channel.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 1.7379 | 161.8% of XA on the 8hr Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 1.7021 | 127.2% of XA on the 8hr Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Top of channel | See 4hr Chart |
| Current Price | 1.6829 | |
| Support 1 | Bottom of channel | See 4hr Chart |
| Support 2 | 1.6430 | 38.2% of AB on the 8hr Chart |
| Support 3 | 1.6292 | 50% of AB on the 8hr Chart |
- 8hr Chart - New high, when will we see resistance?
- 5min Chart - Bullish channel.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USD/JPY (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Buy USD/JPY at 88.60. Stop at 88.14. Profit targets at 89.28, 89.79.
| What is the trend? | Up |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | Converging Fibonacci levels provide strong support @ point D. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | None |
Reason for Strategy
A bullish butterfly pattern is forming on the USD/JPY 2hr Chart. The
pattern has nice symmetry at this point. However, this is a counter
trend opportunity, so we should be extra cautious of long bars near the
completion of the trade (assuming the pattern continues to fall). Long bars are less likely now because we are close to entry, but we really want to see the pattern slowly drop to entry because of a marginal long bar that recently formed. However, it is very important to remember that some major news comes out tomorrow morning (Tuesday 11/17). If the trade is about to enter just before the news is released, don't take this trade because it could quickly stop us out.
Trade Invalidation
A move above 89.45 before reaching point D would cancel the trade. Additionally, a move below 88.14 would stop the trade out. Long bars in the CD leg near the entry would also invalidate this trade. Also, if the pattern comes within 10 pips of hitting the entry, does not enter, and reaches T1, the trade is also invalidated.
| Resistance 3 | 109.99 | 61.8% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 105.63 | 50% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 1 | 101.26 | 38.2% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Current Price | 89.10 | |
| Support 1 | 88.60 | Bullish butterfly |
| Support 2 | 87.12 | 100% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 3 | 83.22 | 127.2% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
- Weekly Chart - Bearish channel.
- 2hr Chart - Bullish butterfly; buy at 88.60.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USD/CHF (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
We have drawn an near bearish channel on the 2hr Chart and will watch for new patterns to form within its context. I think
we could be a pivotal moment in this pair because we also are hovering near the long term 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of XA.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | 1.1432 | 61.8% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 1.1164 | 50% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 1 | 1.0897 | 38.2% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
| Current Price | 1.0073 | |
| Support 1 | 1.0184 | 78.6% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 2 | 0.9609 | 100% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
| Support 3 | 0.8878 | 127.2% of XA on the Weekly Chart |
- Weekly Chart - Will support at 1.0184 finally hold or finally break?
- 2hr Chart - Bearish channel.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USD/CAD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Buy USD/CAD at 1.0375. Stop at 1.0343. Profit targets at 1.0423, 1.0460.
| What is the trend? | Up |
| What is this pattern? | Bullish Butterfly - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | Converging Fibonacci levels provide strong support @ point D. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | None |
Reason for Strategy
A bullish butterfly pattern is forming on the USD/CAD 1hr Chart. The pattern is forming with excellent price symmetry, although there aren't any real "extras" that add further convergence at the buy entry. After some quick swings around the BC leg, we will watch for the pattern to slow down and drop to point D.
Trade Invalidation
A move above 1.0535 before reaching point D would cancel the trade. Additionally, a move below 1.0343 would stop the trade out. Long bars in the CD leg near the entry would also invalidate this trade. Also, if the pattern comes within 10 pips of hitting the entry, does not enter, and reaches T1, the trade is also invalidated.
| Resistance 3 | 1.1143 | 61.8% of XC on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 2 | 1.0964 | 50% of XC on the Daily Chart |
| Resistance 1 | 1.0785 | 38.2% of XC on the Daily Chart |
| Current Price | 1.0475 | |
| Support 1 | 1.0495 | 127.2% of AB on the Daily Chart |
| Support 2 | 1.0375 | Bullish butterfly |
| Support 3 | 1.0324 | 161.8% of AB on the Daily Chart |
- Daily Chart - Not much to go on here, especially in the context of our trade setup.
- 1hr Chart - Bullish butterfly; buy at 1.0375.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
AUD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The AUD/USD has made a new high this week as the bullish movement continues. We have also drawn a new short term bullish channel on the 30min Chart. We will watch for bullish patterns to form within the context of the channel.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | Top of channel | See Weekly Chart |
| Resistance 2 | Top of channel | See 30min Chart |
| Resistance 1 | 0.9327 | Previous high |
| Current Price | 0.9366 | |
| Support 1 | Bottom of channel | See 30min Chart |
| Support 2 | Bottom of channel | See Weekly Chart |
| Support 3 | 0.8199 | 38.2% of AB on the Weekly Chart |
- Weekly Chart - Bullish channel with new high.
- 30min Chart - Bullish channel.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
NZD/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Wait until a new pattern emerges.
| What is the trend? | Neutral |
| What is this pattern? | No pattern present - See all chart patterns |
| Why is this significant? | There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. |
| What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? | No trade |
Reason for Strategy
The NZD/USD has been tough to deal with since the large gap from last weekend's open. There is not a whole lot of symmetry here and this is a fairly weak bullish channel. We will likely stay away
from this one for a while because of the extreme gap.
Trade Invalidation
No trade
| Resistance 3 | Top of channel | See Daily Chart |
| Resistance 2 | Bottom of channel | See Daily Chart |
| Resistance 1 | Top of channel | See 2hr Chart |
| Current Price | 0.7483 | |
| Support 1 | Bottom of channel | See 2hr Chart |
| Support 2 | N/A | N/A |
| Support 3 | N/A | N/A |
- Daily Chart - Broken bullish channel with possible resistance at the bottom trend line.
- 2hr Chart - Bullish channel.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided below should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. FX360 .com is merely providing these views for your general information. The information presented in the views below does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate.
FX360.com and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on FX360.com
NOTE: All trade ideas on FX360.com are hypothetical. FX360.com has not placed these ideas in a live trading environment. Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses that exceed your initial deposit and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.