CURRENCY	CURRENT BIAS	POTENTIAL STRATEGY
EUR/USD (Medium Term)		Wait until a new pattern emerges.
GBP/USD (Medium Term)		Wait until a new pattern emerges.
USD/JPY (Medium Term)		Sell USD/JPY at 91.73. Stop at 92.21. Profit targets at 91.01, 90.49.
USD/CHF (Medium Term)		Wait until a new pattern emerges.
USD/CAD (Medium Term)		Sell USD/CAD at 1.0819. Stop at 1.0854. Profit targets at 1.0767, 1.0726.
AUD/USD (Medium Term)		Wait until a new pattern emerges.
NZD/USD (Medium Term)		Wait until a new pattern emerges.

Bradley W. Gareiss

Technical Analyst, GFT

• EUR/USD
• GBP/USD
• USD/JPY
• USD/CHF
• USD/CAD
• AUD/USD
• NZD/USD

EUR/USD (Swing Forecast)

Potential Strategy

Wait until a new pattern emerges.

What is the trend?	Neutral
What is this pattern?	No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?	There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?	No trade

Reason for Strategy

We have drawn a bearish channel on the EUR/USD 2hr Chart after the sideways channel was broken.  Of course, the pair quickly broke through this channel as well.  There is not a whole lot of symmetry with the USD at this point.  We will now simply watch for new patterns to form.

Trade Invalidation

No trade

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3	1.5062	100% of XA on the 4hr Chart
Resistance 2	1.4969	78.6% of XA on the 4hr Chart
Resistance 1	1.4895	61.8% of XA on the 4hr Chart
Current Price	1.4842
Support 1	1.4800	38.2% of AB on the 4hr Chart
Support 2	1.4767	50% of AB on the 4hr Chart
Support 3	1.4734	61.8% of AB on the 4hr Chart

• Source: DealBook®360
• Source: DealBook®360

• 4hr Chart - Where will we see new resistance?
• 2hr Chart - Broken bearish channel.

Get Your DealBook® Charting Package Free!

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.

GBP/USD (Swing Forecast)

Potential Strategy

Wait until a new pattern emerges.

What is the trend?	Neutral
What is this pattern?	No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?	There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?	No trade

Reason for Strategy

We have drawn a bearish channel on the GBP/USD 1hr Chart.  However, the pair has quickly risen above the channel.  We will continue to watch for new patterns within the context of the Fibonacci levels on the 8hr Chart.

Trade Invalidation

No trade

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3	1.7021	127.2% of XA on the 8hr Chart
Resistance 2	1.6740	100% of XA on the 8hr Chart
Resistance 1	1.6519	78.6% of XA on the 8hr Chart
Current Price	1.6614
Support 1	1.6315	38.2% of AB on the 8hr Chart
Support 2	1.6199	50% of AB on the 8hr Chart
Support 3	1.6083	61.8% of AB on the 8hr Chart

• Source: DealBook®360
• Source: DealBook®360

• 8hr Chart - Will we see major resistance now?
• 1hr Chart - Broken bearish channel.

Get Your DealBook® Charting Package Free!

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.

USD/JPY (Swing Forecast)

Potential Strategy

Sell USD/JPY at 91.73. Stop at 92.21. Profit targets at 91.01, 90.49.

What is the trend?	Down
What is this pattern?	Bearish Gartley - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?	Converging Fibonacci levels provide strong resistance @ point D.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?	If RSI rises above 70.

Reason for Strategy

We have redrawn this pattern because the USD/JPY dropped below the original point C.  I actually prefer the way the pattern is shaping up now.  Of course the pair could drop farther and the trade could be called off, but it looks good for now.

Trade Invalidation

A move below 89.55 before reaching point D would cancel the trade. Additionally, a move above 92.21 would stop the trade out. Long bars in the CD leg near the entry would also invalidate this trade. Also, if the pattern comes within 10 pips of hitting the entry, does not enter, and reaches T1, the trade is also invalidated.

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3	105.63	50% of XA on the Weekly Chart
Resistance 2	101.26	38.2% of XA on the Weekly Chart
Resistance 1	91.73	Bearish Gartley
Current Price	89.86
Support 1	90.18	78.6% of AB on the Weekly Chart
Support 2	87.12	100% of AB on the Weekly Chart
Support 3	83.22	127.2% of AB on the Weekly Chart

• Source: DealBook®360
• Source: DealBook®360

• Weekly Chart - Bearish channel.
• 2hr Chart - Bearish Gartley; sell at 91.73.

Get Your DealBook® Charting Package Free!

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.

USD/CHF (Swing Forecast)

Potential Strategy

Wait until a new pattern emerges.

What is the trend?	Neutral
What is this pattern?	No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?	There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?	No trade

Reason for Strategy

We have drawn a bullish channel on the USD/CHF 2hr Chart after the sideways channel was broken.  Like most other USD based pairs, the channel broke, and we don't have much to look at.  I think we could be a pivotal moment in this pair because we also are hovering near the long term 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of XA.

Trade Invalidation

No trade

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3	1.1463	61.8% of AB on the Weekly Chart
Resistance 2	1.1164	50% of AB on the Weekly Chart
Resistance 1	1.0897	38.2% of AB on the Weekly Chart
Current Price	1.0170
Support 1	1.0184	78.6% of XA on the Weekly Chart
Support 2	0.9609	100% of XA on the Weekly Chart
Support 3	0.8878	127.2% of XA on the Weekly Chart

• Source: DealBook®360
• Source: DealBook®360

• Weekly Chart - Will support at 1.0184 finally hold or finally break?
• 2hr Chart - Broken bullish channel.

Get Your DealBook® Charting Package Free!

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.

USD/CAD (Swing Forecast)

Potential Strategy

Sell USD/CAD at 1.0819. Stop at 1.0854. Profit targets at 1.0767, 1.0726.

What is the trend?	Down
What is this pattern?	Bearish Gartley - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?	Converging Fibonacci levels provide strong resistance @ point D.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?	If RSI rises above 70.

Reason for Strategy

A bearish Gartley pattern is forming on the USD/CAD 1hr Chart.  This pattern is somewhat odd because the BC leg is so short in terms of time.  However, the pattern is still valid.  The main concern with this setup is that the CD leg is moving so quickly.  We will definitely want to see a shallower slope up if we are to take this trade next week.  The trade would also enter near the bearish trend line seen on the Daily Chart.

Trade Invalidation

A move below 1.0685 before reaching point D would cancel the trade. Additionally, a move above 1.0854 would stop the trade out. Long bars in the CD leg near the entry would also invalidate this trade. Also, if the pattern comes within 10 pips of hitting the entry, does not enter, and reaches T1, the trade is also invalidated.

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3	1.0964	50% of XC on the Daily Chart
Resistance 2	1.0819	Bearish Gartley
Resistance 1	1.0785	38.2% of XC on the Daily Chart
Current Price	1.0751
Support 1	1.0629	100% of AB on the Daily Chart
Support 2	1.0495	127.2% of AB on the Daily Chart
Support 3	1.0324	161.8% of AB on the Daily Chart

• Source: DealBook®360
• Source: DealBook®360

• Daily Chart - Trade would enter near bearish trend line.
• 1hr Chart - Bearish Gartley; sell at 1.0819.

Get Your DealBook® Charting Package Free!

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.

AUD/USD (Swing Forecast)

Potential Strategy

Wait until a new pattern emerges.

What is the trend?	Neutral
What is this pattern?	No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?	There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?	No trade

Reason for Strategy

The AUD/USD trade setups from earlier this week have both been invalidated.  Therefore we have drawn a bearish channel.  This new channel was fairly weak at this point, and it ended up breaking.  We will simply watch for the next pattern/channel to form.

Trade Invalidation

No trade

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3	N/A	N/A
Resistance 2	Top of channel	See Weekly Chart
Resistance 1	0.9327	Significant high
Current Price	0.9188
Support 1	Top of channel	See 2hr Chart
Support 2	Bottom of channel	See Weekly Chart
Support 3	Bottom of channel	See 2hr Chart

• Source: DealBook®360
• Source: DealBook®360

• Weekly Chart - Bullish channel.
• 2hr Chart - Broken bearish channel.

Get Your DealBook® Charting Package Free!

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.

NZD/USD (Swing Forecast)

Potential Strategy

Wait until a new pattern emerges.

What is the trend?	Neutral
What is this pattern?	No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?	There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?	No trade

Reason for Strategy

The NZD/USD has risen above our trade setup from earlier this week, so we have taken that pattern away.  We now have a possible bullish channel forming.  An ABCD pattern could have completed at the bottom of the potential bearish channel, but that now is impossible because the pair has not moved down.

Trade Invalidation

No trade

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3	Top of channel	See Daily Chart
Resistance 2	Bottom of channel	See Daily Chart
Resistance 1	Top of channel	See 1hr Chart
Current Price	0.7249
Support 1	Bottom of channel	See 1hr Chart
Support 2	0.7016	127.2% of BC on Daily Chart
Support 3	N/A	N/A

• Source: DealBook®360
• Source: DealBook®360

• Daily Chart - Broken bullish channel.
• 1hr Chart - Bearish channel and ABCD.

Get Your DealBook® Charting Package Free!

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.

Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.

TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS

• Trades to Watch
• Trades in Progress

currency		recommendation
USD/CHF Medium term		Sell at 1.0238 Stop at 1.0283 Target 1 at 1.0171 Target 2 at 1.0119
NZD/CAD Medium term		Sell at .7942 Stop at 0.7992 Target 1 at 0.7867 Target 2 at 0.7805

• view more trades

currency		recommendation
USD/CAD Medium term Opened 11/20/2009		Short from 1.0702 Stop at 1.0758 Target 1 at 1.0618 Target 2 at 1.0555

• view more trades

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