Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.

CURRENCY	CURRENT BIAS	POTENTIAL STRATEGY
EUR/USD (Medium Term)		Sell EUR/USD at 1.3075. Stop at 1.3370. Profit target at 1.2435.
GBP/USD (Medium Term)		Wait until a new pattern emerges.
USD/JPY (Medium Term)		Wait until a new pattern emerges.
USD/CHF (Medium Term)		Sell USD/CHF at 1.0169. Stop at 1.0192. Profit target at 1.0126.
USD/CAD (Medium Term)		Wait until a new pattern emerges.
AUD/USD (Medium Term)		Wait until a new pattern emerges.
NZD/USD (Medium Term)		Wait until a new pattern emerges.

Bradley W. Gareiss

Technical Analyst, GFT

• EUR/USD
• GBP/USD
• USD/JPY
• USD/CHF
• USD/CAD
• AUD/USD
• NZD/USD

EUR/USD (Swing Forecast)

Potential Strategy

Sell EUR/USD at 1.3075. Stop at 1.3370. Profit target at 1.2435.

What is the trend?	Down
What is this pattern?	- See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?	Broken bullish trend line could provide new resistance.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?	N/A

Reason for Strategy

We stuck with both the same entry (1.2985) and the same stop (1.3220) while updating this trade idea.  The bullish trend line on the 4hr Chart has provided support, and this may lead to the rally required to enter the trade.  The broken trend line could provide new resistance near 1.2985 if that level is tested in the next 24 hours.  

Trade Invalidation

The trade is invalidated if the trade does not enter by 6pm eastern time tomorrow (9/9/2010).

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3	N/A	N/A
Resistance 2	N/A	N/A
Resistance 1	1.2985	Broken trend line
Current Price	1.2720
Support 1	1.2605	50% of YZ on the Daily Chart
Support 2	1.2433	61.8% of YZ on the Daily Chart
Support 3	1.2188	78.6% of YZ on the Daily Chart

• Source: DealBook®360
• Source: DealBook®360

• Daily Chart - Trade would enter near the broken trend line.
• 4hr Chart - Bullish trend line.

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DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.

GBP/USD (Swing Forecast)

Potential Strategy

Wait until a new pattern emerges.

What is the trend?	Neutral
What is this pattern?	No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?	There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?	No trade

Reason for Strategy

The bearish trend line broke out, but unfortunately there were only two points of resistance instead of the three we prefer before watching for a potential break out.  The pair rose too much, so this trade idea is now dead.  Hopefully something actionable will form by tomorrow's report.

Trade Invalidation

No trade

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3	N/A	N/A
Resistance 2	N/A	N/A
Resistance 1	Bottom of broken channel	See Daily Chart
Current Price	1.5468
Support 1	1.5366	38.2% of YZ on the Daily Chart
Support 2	1.5171	50% of YZ on the Daily Chart
Support 3	1.4975	61.8% of YZ on the Daily Chart

• Source: DealBook®360
• Source: DealBook®360

• Daily Chart - Broken bullish channel.
• 30min Chart - Broken bearish trend line.

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DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.

USD/JPY (Swing Forecast)

Potential Strategy

Wait until a new pattern emerges.

What is the trend?	Neutral
What is this pattern?	No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?	There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?	No trade

Reason for Strategy

Nothing is really happening that I can use for this pair.  However, it is interesting that the wedge on the Daily Chart is still holding on.  There must be a sustained breakout soon, and hopefully we can take some action when that finally happens.

Trade Invalidation

No trade

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3	N/A	N/A
Resistance 2	Top of wedge	See Daily Chart
Resistance 1	Top of bearish channel	See 8hr Chart
Current Price	83.84
Support 1	Bottom of wedge	See Daily Chart
Support 2	Bottom of bearish channel	See 8hr Chart
Support 3	N/A	N/A

• Source: DealBook®360
• Source: DealBook®360

• Daily Chart - Wedge.
• 8hr Chart - Bearish channel.

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DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.

USD/CHF (Swing Forecast)

Potential Strategy

Sell USD/CHF at 1.0169. Stop at 1.0192. Profit target at 1.0126.

What is the trend?	Down
What is this pattern?	Bearish Gartley - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?	There are three levels of resistance lining up at the same basic level (1.0169).
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?	Bearish channel on the 4hr Chart.

Reason for Strategy

A bearish Gartley with perfect price symmetry is forming on the the USD/CHF 1hr Chart.  It still has to rise quite a bit, but the three levels of resistance all line up perfectly.  The trade would also enter in the context of a bearish channel in the 4hr Chart.

Trade Invalidation

The trade is invalid if the pair falls to 1.0085 before reaching the entry.

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3	N/A	N/A
Resistance 2	Top of bearish channel	See 4hr Chart
Resistance 1	1.0169	Bearish Gartley
Current Price	1.0109
Support 1	Bottom of bearish channel	See 4hr Chart
Support 2	N/A	N/A
Support 3	N/A	N/A

• Source: DealBook®360
• Source: DealBook®360

• 4hr Chart - Bearish channel.
• 1hr Chart - Bearish Gartley; sell at 1.0169.

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DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.

USD/CAD (Swing Forecast)

Potential Strategy

Wait until a new pattern emerges.

What is the trend?	Neutral
What is this pattern?	No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?	There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?	No trade

Reason for Strategy

This is another example of a pair breaking out of a channel, rising back to the bottom, and seeing new resistance.  Also, it appears we may be forming a range on the Daily Chart.  Lastly, a new bearish trend line is being tested.  We saw some sloppy resistance on the third test, but will will still keep an eye out for another breakout opportunity.

Trade Invalidation

No trade

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3	1.0831	127.2% of AB on the Daily Chart
Resistance 2	1.0676	100% of AB on the Daily Chart
Resistance 1	Bearish trend line	See 4hr Chart
Current Price	1.0366
Support 1	1.0138	100% of AB on the Daily Chart
Support 2	0.9992	127.2% of AB on the Daily Chart
Support 3	0.9806	161.8% of XA on the Daily Chart

• Source: DealBook®360
• Source: DealBook®360

• Daily Chart - Is a range forming between point A and point B?
• 4hr Chart - New bearish trend line.

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DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.

AUD/USD (Swing Forecast)

Potential Strategy

Wait until a new pattern emerges.

What is the trend?	Neutral
What is this pattern?	Bearish Gartley - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?	Multiple levels of potential resistance have converged at one precise level.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?	N/A

Reason for Strategy

Non Farm Payroll pushed the pair up shortly before entry, but the Gartley pattern still may be providing resistance.  While we won't place a trade based on this, we will continue to watch the results of this pattern's completion until something more useful comes along.

Trade Invalidation

N/A

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3	0.9447	127.2% of XA on the Daily Chart
Resistance 2	0.9387	100% of XA on the Daily Chart
Resistance 1	0.9104	78.6% of XA on the Daily Chart
Current Price	0.9189
Support 1	0.8779	38.2% of AB on the Daily Chart
Support 2	0.8643	50% of AB on the Daily Chart
Support 3	0.8507	61.8% of AB on the Daily Chart

• Source: DealBook®360
• Source: DealBook®360

• Daily Chart - Will we start testing support soon?
• 4hr Chart - Bearish Gartley.

Get Your DealBook® Charting Package Free!

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.

NZD/USD (Swing Forecast)

Potential Strategy

Wait until a new pattern emerges.

What is the trend?	Neutral
What is this pattern?	No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?	There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?	No trade

Reason for Strategy

A bearish trend line formed on the NZD/USD 30min Chart, the pair broke out, the pair dropped back to the broken trend line, and then the pair rallied.  We have been talking about this a lot lately, and this is a good example.  It happened this morning so I couldn't update this, but it was a solid setup.  The 5min Chart shows a more detailed imaged of the breakout followed by support at the broken trend line.  Keep in mind the trend line is the same, it is just magnified.

Trade Invalidation

No trade

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3	N/A	N/A
Resistance 2	N/A	N/A
Resistance 1	N/A	N/A
Current Price	0.7237
Support 1	Broken bearish trend line	See 30min/5min Chart
Support 2	N/A	N/A
Support 3	N/A	N/A

• Source: DealBook®360
• Source: DealBook®360

• 30min Chart - Trend line breakout.
• 5min Chart - Close up of the trend line breaking and the pair subsequently seeing support at the broken trend line.

Get Your DealBook® Charting Package Free!

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom.

TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS

• Trades to Watch
• Trades in Progress

currency		recommendation
USD/JPY Medium term		Buy at 83.0540 Stop at 82.766 Target at 83.739
USD/CHF Medium term		Sell at 1.0169 Stop at 1.0192 Target at 1.0126
NZD/CAD Medium term		Buy at .7437 Stop at 0.7412 Target at 0.7474

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