AUD/CHF Bounce At .9560?

Last updated 3/22/2010 12:43 PM EST (GMT -5) 4 Comments

FX360 Technical Analyst Staff

Technical Analyst, GFT

A potential  AUD/CHF buying opportunity at .9560 is emerging based on a 4hr bullish Butterfly pattern projected to complete near previously established support (see point X2), which also gives us a separate, yet intertwined, double-bottom Gatley pattern. This convergence adds to the odds of at least a temporary bullish reversal, thus providing a higher probability buy opportunity if prices dip to pattern completion near point D based on the following Fibonacci confluence..

Prices must dip to the projected entry at .9560 without first moving above point C (97.83), which negates pattern structure. As always, be wary of any gaps and/or wide-ranging candles (2-3x's average) prior to the projected entry as these tend to increase the odds of pattern failure. Stops will be set at .9520 just below pattern completion, and the initial profit target of .9634 represents a 38.2% correction of the projected CD leg.

Potential strategy:  Buy if prices dip to .9560 with stop-loss at .9520 targeting 96.34.

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Comments (4)

kingnai

March 22, 2010 at 10:49 PM ET

Do you have any concerns at all with the SNB interfering with a trade that you may be in?

-Ian

fishmanszmit

March 28, 2010 at 07:05 PM ET

AUD/CHF hit .9570 on my chart. Does this invalidate the trade? The commentary did not mention it. Thank you.

rstojsic

March 29, 2010 at 09:48 AM ET

the move to .9570 did not invalidate the trade as the entry was .9560, but now that the aud/chf has posted the anticipated rally this trade is no longer valid (entry was just missed in other words)

rstojsic

March 29, 2010 at 09:54 AM ET

pardon me, fishman, if you're referring to the weekend gap in terms of trade invalidation?? if so, then yes, that would have been a good reason to pass on this particular trade had the entry been achieved.

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