Trade Update: GBP/JPY Short In Progress

10 Comments
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Last Updated: 10 min ago

The bearish GBP/JPY Gartley pattern recently highlighted last week (see " Attractive GBP/JPY Selling Opportunity.. ) has come to fruition resulting in the current short from 142.52. The acceleration up to pattern completion is a cause for concern as it's a borderline wide-ranging candle (warning sign), so tightening up stops to break-even.now that we're up about 30 pips would be the safe play.   

As it stands now, the initial target of 141.49 represents a 38.2% correction of the projected CD leg, at which point stops will be moved to break-even (B/E) and is also a valid exit for more conservative traders as it still represents a decent risk/reward. However, the daily chart shows there's still a bit of room down where a longer-term bullish butterfly pattern is projected to complete which in turn defines the extended target of 136.23 (set just above the daily butterfly pattern completion). 


    • 2hr Chart - BEFORE

    • 2hr Chart - CURRENT

Comments (10)

Gil
February 16, 2010 at 02:02 PM ET
What I find amazing is that FX360 had a projection of this GBP/JPY going to 142.50, and yet with the very strong momentum move that took place today around the London Fix.
To the upside not just with the GBP/JPY but also with the GBP/USD and the USD/JPY , which all showed building momentum to the up side and was an easy Buy and I mean very easy to Buy the GBP/JPY(rallied 110 pips above prior resistance @141.50) since the cross was being taken to the upside by the momentum build up on both the GBP/USD and the USD/JPY

That FX360 just sat there during the strong move and did nothing at all, I know you going to post some excuse, But in my book FX360 missed a great momentum trade and knowing FX360 had projection sell target at 142.50 just adds insult to injury.

Now FX360 what’s to sell into the London close leaving traders at that mercy of a consolidating market after the strong move we just witness going into the afternoon, and let’s not forget that the Dow was also rallying very strong too at the time when this up move took place.
I question very much FX360 (Rodger) ability or lack thereof for not spotting the long trade.
rookie
February 16, 2010 at 02:22 PM ET
a pattern is a pattern is a pattern. this was a good pattern and that's what they are in the business of reporting. You don't have to trade if you don't want to. Rodger is just doing his job.
pipster
February 16, 2010 at 05:44 PM ET
FX360 are technical traders and rely on chart analysis. They do not let fundamental influence their trades, unless it effects their entry from what I've seen. There will always be ups and downs once you're in a technical trade, you live through it and don't let it influence you. If you can't stomach it I suggest you get out of the trade, and use a different trading style.
ALEJANDRO
February 16, 2010 at 08:26 PM ET
Hey Gil. sounds like you trade on the spur of the moment, dont let yourself fall into it !!
Houston Jake
February 16, 2010 at 02:44 PM ET
Hey Gil why didnt you see the trade and make it your self. instead of just watching it. Maybe you should read the fx360 disclaimer again. Just a thought. Go bash yourself Rogers Awesome!
NeoFX
February 16, 2010 at 03:25 PM ET
Roger,

this kinda looks like a flashback of that CAF/CHF trade that was stopped out. I hope i'm wrong but got it right in your last trade: too long of a 4hr bar on this GBP/JPY. you sure we don't need to wait abit longer to get in?

i'm just asking because i'm in the trade now
R
NeoFX
February 16, 2010 at 05:45 PM ET
i meant CAD/CHF sorry. To me this seems like a continuation pattern on GBP/JPY. I'm getting out for now. may be wrong. but better safe than sorry.
also, GBP/JPY looks like it's retracing going up as it just scored a low. I think the 143.00 or 144.50 (50%ret) would be a better short opportunity here.

there's just way too much momentum now.

just a thought but please comment whenever you can.
R
CSUNsManny
February 16, 2010 at 07:45 PM ET
I would have to disagree with Roger in the sense that the short entry position is placed where there is no resistance. The pattern he is looking at might work but when it comes to pure supply/demand, that price level has no resistance (at 142.53). The area where he has placed his stop-loss is where I am entering in a short position.

GJ overall trend is down. 143.29 is where support was broken which will now act as resistance.
2nd it is a Fib retracement level
3rd I will bet that CCI will show overbought and
4th I will bet Bollinger Band will touch upper band.

Trading is all about probabilities and the odds would be in favor at 143.29 going short. Let's see how it will turn out!

--
Manny
NeoFX
February 17, 2010 at 02:17 PM ET
Roger,

I'm surprised you didn't call that GBP/JPY trade off. too much momentum and too long of a 4hr candle there. I actually rode it up for 76 pips in profit. I'm just curious as to why it wasn't invalidated

thanks still
NeoFX
February 17, 2010 at 02:22 PM ET
time to sell again perhaps here. nice crown forming. R

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