NZD/USD

* Bias determined by the relationship between price and various EMAs. The following hierarchy determines bias (numbers represent how many EMAs the price closed the week above): 0 – Strongly Bearish, 1 – Mildly Bearish, 2 – Neutral, 3 – Mildly Bullish, 4 – Strongly Bullish.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD primarily consolidated in choppy trade last week as traders awaited a definitive solution to the Greek PSI talks. From a technical perspective, the pair has carved out a relatively tight consolidation range between support at 1.3000 and resistance up at 1.3225. The momentum remains clearly with the bulls, as the MACD continues to trend above its signal line, and this week’s consolidation has cleared away last week’s overbought condition on the Slow Stochastics, potentially clearing the way for further rallies if the high at 1.3225 is eclipsed. To the downside, support is anticipated at the 20-day EMA and at the round 1.3000 handle; a break below these levels would turn the near-term bias bearish for a drop toward 1.2800.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD continued its rally last week, clearing previous triple top resistance at 1.5770. At that point, rates continued higher to the next level of previous resistance at 1.5885. Late last week, the pair clearly found a floor at the previous resistance area at 1.5770, a level that will be critical to watch moving in to this week. The MACD shows clearly bullish momentum, though the Slow Stochastics indicate rates are clearly overbought in the near-term. If the unit drops through this support level, we may see a further pullback down to the 20-day EMA (currently at 1.5641) or previous-resistance-turned-support at 1.5650.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY broke below key support at 76.60 before finding a floor at the round 76.00 handle and reversing higher on Friday. As the week came to a close, rates were stalling below key previous-support-turned-resistance at 76.60. Meanwhile, the picture on the secondary indicators is somewhat cloudy – the MACD shows that momentum has turned bearish, but rates remain oversold even with Friday’s rally. This week, the 76.60 level will be a key barometer of trade: if the USD/JPY can break and close above this level, the bias will turn modestly bullish, but as long as rates remain below 76.60, more consolidation is favored in the near-term. As a final note, recent price action and comments from officials suggest that BOJ intervention is unlikely unless rates drop below 76.00 support.

USD/CHF

The USD/CHF primarily consolidated last week between key previous support near .9100 and resistance at .9230. While the price action is relatively neutral in the near term, the secondary studies are implying the potential for a continuation of the selling pressure; namely, the MACD is trending down below its signal, indicating bearish momentum, while the recent consolidation has alleviated the oversold condition in the Slow Stochastics. Potential sellers will want to wait for a break of support at .9100 before confirming the bearish bias. Also note that lately, this pair has been trading as the inverse of the EUR/USD, so Swissie traders should check for key support and resistance levels in the Euro before placing any trades.

USD/CAD

The greenback continued to sell off against its northern neighbor last week, though the selloff was fairly moderate. After conclusively breaking below key psychological support at parity (1.00), the road has been paved for further drops down toward previous support at .9900. The MACD is showing bearish momentum, though the oversold nature of the Slow Stochastics indicates a higher probability of a bounce off .9900 support. If such a bounce does emerge, it is likely to be contained by parity or previous-resistance-turned-support at 1.0070 this week.  

AUD/USD

The Aussie rallied in concert with other higher-yielding currencies last week, extending its gains following the mid-January break of ascending triangle resistance. As the week came to a close, rates were at 6-month highs above 1.0750. However, given the clearly overbought reading on the Slow Stochastics, traders will want to watch closely for Monday’s trading to confirm that this resistance level has been conclusively broken. A daily close above 1.08 would open the door for further continuations, with bulls potentially targeting a move up to all-time highs near 1.10.

NZD/USD

The Kiwi, predictably, also rallied against the U.S. Dollar last week after clearing previous resistance near .8240. Moving forward, the .8240 level is expected to provide support for the pair, as is the near-term bullish trend line highlighted on the chart above. Further bolstering the bullish case, the MACD continues to trend higher above its signal line and 0, showing that the bullish momentum continues to increase. Bullish traders may want to wait for a near-term pullback to rising trend line support to enter the uptrend at value.