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EUR/CHF Approaching Long Term Support.

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Last Updated: 10 min ago

The EUR/CHF has formed a long term bullish butterfly pattern on the 8hr Chart.  The butterfly also converges with the 88% retracement on the Daily Chart as well.  Although we can't see this on the examples shown, this pair has moved relatively sideways since the early 1990's.  This trade takes place near the two significant lows since then, which hit in 1995 and 2001.

We are looking to buy the EUR/CHF at point D (1.4514).  Point D is located at the convergence of the following points:

  • 127.2% Fibonacci extension of XA.
  • 161.8% Fibonacci extension of BC.
  • AB=CD
  • 88% Fibonacci retracement of YZ.
  • If RSI falls below 30.
  • The butterfly pattern shows nice convergence.  We also see good time symmetry so far, as the price is almost exactly at the CD line which represents the ideal slope to go into the trade.  However, we must warn against long bars because they could still invalidate the trade.  Also, if the pair rises above 1.4900, the trade is invalid.

    To recap, we will look to buy the EUR/CHF at 1.4514 with our stop placed at 1.4415.  Our initial profit targets are 1.4667 (38.2% of CD) and 1.4790 (61.8% of CD).



    Daily Chart - 88% Fibonacci retracement at entry. 8hr Chart - Bullish butterfly; buy @ 1.4514.


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