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AUD/CHF to Resume Uptrend at 0.9141?- Invalidated

Last updated 11/2/2011 2:17 AM EST (GMT -5) 5 Comments

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Bradley W. Gareiss

Technical Analyst, GFT

This trade has been invalidated.

A bullish Gartley pattern is currently forming on the AUD/CHF 1hr Chart below. The pattern has solid price symmetry, and it also has acceptable time symmetry so far. The best part about this trade is that it would complete near the bullish trend line.  Otherwise, this is a very straightforward trade.  This trade would be invalidated if it rises to 0.9225 before entering.

We are looking to buy the AUD/CHF if it falls to 0.9141 (Point D).  Point D is located at the convergence of the following points:

To recap, we will look to buy the AUD/CHF at 0.9141 with our stop placed at 0.9111.  Our initial profit target is 0.9186 (38.2% of CD).

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  • 4hr Chart - Trade would enter near the bullish trend line.
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  • 1hr Chart - Bullish Gartley; buy at 0.9141.

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Comments (5)

mbrad77

November 01, 2011 at 10:38 PM ET

I was wondering if your trade got triggered this evening , depending on the bid/ask for your broker, it got pretty close, 2 pips away or so

bgareiss

November 02, 2011 at 12:08 AM ET

It did not reach the entry based on the spread at the time the pair dropped below the entry. However, the trade could still enter if it drops back to the entry before rising to 0.9190.

Brad

erikwarg

November 02, 2011 at 10:11 AM ET

Brad,

I had a question on your USD/JPY trade. This would still be considered a valid setup even after such a big fundamental move? I believe the CD leg has dropped below C but even if it were still valid, you like this setup?

E

bgareiss

November 02, 2011 at 11:15 AM ET

Erik, if you look at the last move like this in early August, you will see that the pair rapidly corrected back down. Also, the trade would have entered at the exact 78.6% retracement of YZ on the Daily Chart of the USD/JPY Technical Report in addition to forming a strong pattern. Had the pair not dropped below point C, these facts would compel me to take this trade.

Brad

erikwarg

November 02, 2011 at 11:23 AM ET

Thanks Brad! That move would scare me away from any setup. You make a great point. I will look closer at it.

E

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