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AUD/JPY Near Short Opportunity at 80.11

The information, including Commentary and Trade Ideas, provided on FX360.com should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research which should be performed before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading and FX360 .com is merely providing this information for your general information. The information and opinions presented do not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. Any projections or views of the market provided by FX360.com may not prove to be accurate.

Last updated 2/12/2010 7:03 PM EST (GMT -5) 6 Comments

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Bradley W. Gareiss

Technical Analyst, GFT

A bearish Gartley pattern has nearly completed on the AUD/JPY 10min Chart below.  The pattern could be a little tighter, but it is good enough to post.  This trade really gets interesting when we look at the 5min Chart.  There are three seperate ABCD patterns that build upon one another.  They all meet at almost the exact same point.  I usually don't post trades that are this short term, but this is tough to pass up.  However, be weary of any gap up over the weekend.

We are looking the sell the AUD/JPY if it rises to 80.11 (Point D).  Point D is located at the convergence of the following points:

We will now go over what to watch for assuming the pair continues rising towards our entry at 80.11.  Since this trade is so close to completing, there is only one condition that would invalidate this trade aside from the pair rising above the stop.  The trade would invalid if the pair falls below 79.62 before hitting our entry.

To recap, we will look to sell the AUD/JPY at 80.11 with our stop placed at 80.34.  Our initial profit target is 79.76 (38.2% of CD).

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  • 15min Chart - Bearish Gartley; sell at 80.11.
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  • 5min Chart - Three ABCD patterns all would complete at the same point.

The information, including Commentary and Trade Ideas, provided on FX360.com should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research which should be performed before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading and FX360 .com is merely providing this information for your general information. The information and opinions presented do not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. Any projections or views of the market provided by FX360.com may not prove to be accurate.

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Comments (6)

FXDragon

February 13, 2010 at 08:27 AM ET

Hey boss,
Isnt this contradictory to the audusd buy?

bgareiss

February 15, 2010 at 02:15 PM ET

No. There are a couple of reasons for this. First, the AUD/JPY is on a much shorter time frame. Second, it is highly unlikely both trades could enter at the same time. The AUD/JPY has already entered, and the AUD/USD trade was well above entry when we posted these trades. Brad

NeoFX

February 14, 2010 at 12:46 PM ET

Brad,

can you shed some light on USD/JPY? in my opinion we're still big time bearish here, for the near future anyway. However, where it stands now, it seems like a beautiful crown formation on daily and a possible reversal of the downtrend. the left shoulder stopped dead at 88.00, the head was the most previous low at about 84.90 and now right shoulder seems to have been almost formed at around 88.70, supported by prev major support level as well as a big engulfing bullish candle on daily.

i'm not sure if it's up or down here anymore. any thought on this?

thanks

p.s. also look at the monthly chart: that's an engulfing bullish candle if I ever saw one lol

bgareiss

February 15, 2010 at 02:20 PM ET

At this time I don't have a strong opinion on this pair. There are a couple of bearish channels, but nothing I am planning to place a trade on. Brad

Oded

February 15, 2010 at 03:36 AM ET

Never trade without understanding correlation :

I would like to go back to the CADCHF:

3 month ago i suggested to my clients to buy the US Dollar.
The USDCHF in which is the complete correlation for the US INDEX - on the weekly chart- went up on 5 and after made a nice ABC where wave C went down on 5. So in my point of view the Dollar will go up of the next 6 month at least(from that time)
The NZDUSD on the weekly chart hit the 72%, means wave 2 so i send a sell order for wave 3.
In order to join this long terms moves now we must see a correction' without it its too risky.

So if the USDCHF will start the correction it just make sense that CADCHF will go down. the CHF can be strong and the CAD weak now.

So in many cases the USDCHF leads the CHF pairs where the CHF is the secondary.
I will not take GBPCHF long on the US session if i am with the USDCHF short regardless the pattern.

You must have edge in this market on others, so beside the tech, look and the correlation always.

Good luck
Oded

NeoFX

February 15, 2010 at 02:02 PM ET

so what exactly are you saying about the USD/JPY?
R

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