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Update: EUR/JPY Opportunity to Buy at 130.11

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Last updated 1/18/2010 8:48 PM EST (GMT -5) 20 Comments

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Bradley W. Gareiss

Technical Analyst, GFT

The bullish Gartley pattern has completed on the EUR/JPY 4hr Chart.  We have to update our profit targets because the pair has reacted more quickly than we anticipated.  The first profit target is now 131.43 and the second is 132.27.  Also, it is possible to still enter the trade if you haven't entered.  You can still enter if the price drops back to the entry (130.11) before reaching T1 (131.43).  We extended CD to 127.2% of AB because there were relatively long bars in the CD leg. The pattern has excellent price symmetry and good time symmetry.  The pair also broke out of the short term bearish channel on the 30min Chart.  The breakout occurred at the exact spot where the top of the channel and price entry met.

We bought (and can still buy) the EUR/JPY if the pair falls to 130.11 (Point D).  Point D is located at the convergence of the following levels:

To recap, we bought (and can still buy) the EUR/JPY at 130.11 with our stop placed at 129.29.  Our updated profit targets are 131.43 (38.2% of CD) and 132.27 (61.8% of CD).

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  • 4hr Chart - Bullish Gartley.
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  • 30min Chart - Channel broke at the exact entry.

The information, including Commentary and Trade Ideas, provided on FX360.com should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research which should be performed before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading and FX360 .com is merely providing this information for your general information. The information and opinions presented do not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. Any projections or views of the market provided by FX360.com may not prove to be accurate.

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Comments (20)

Silenus

January 19, 2010 at 03:03 AM ET

No No No! Don't listen to the man, kids!
1.Positive EURJPY/ World stock markets corelation
2. Massive weekly bearish engulfing cnadle
3. Heavy resistance at 130.50, 131.50 and 132.20 (Daily Kijun, Senkou A and Tenkan)
Do as your mom says and get short - we got a long long way to go down on this one.

Rajapaksha

January 19, 2010 at 05:29 AM ET

but The MAN has a point :)

alexjbrandt

January 19, 2010 at 03:14 AM ET

Who trades on a weekly timeframe? According to my indicator on a daily time frame, it still has room to go down. On a 4 hr time frame my indicators tell me that the current downtrend can continue, or is possibly peaking (but not confirmed because price is still below the moving average).

bgareiss

January 19, 2010 at 11:28 AM ET

Most of the time momentum based indicators will be at odds with this methodology (on at least one time frame) because we are picking short term reversals. As I say all the time, if different strategies didn't conflict, the markets would cease to function because everyone would have the same opinion. Brad

fxpro888

January 19, 2010 at 03:20 AM ET

LoL at the Chikou Span and Tenkan San.

Cool dude

January 19, 2010 at 04:12 AM ET

hi
Any body have any idea where the Eur/USd pair is heading and AUD/USD. i am totally loss

bgareiss

January 19, 2010 at 11:34 AM ET

We may set something up with AUD/USD later today. Keep in mind you don't have to be in the market at all times. If you don't see something that give you an edge, just stay out. Brad

Silenus

January 19, 2010 at 07:31 AM ET

Time's running out kids. Get short now before the stockmarket opens down and this thing sinks like a stone. (Hourly Gold is trying to tell you something - Can you hear it ?) Entry: Short between 130 and 130.50. Exit 131. or 129 (if you have to get out today) then way way down. (Sorry Mr B)

fxpro888

January 19, 2010 at 01:15 PM ET

LoL at stockmarket opens down and sinks like a stone...

Paint66

January 20, 2010 at 04:37 AM ET

Would like to talk about this more in detail. please contact me at stblumen@gmail.com thx

Vespones

January 19, 2010 at 01:29 PM ET

Silenus,

If I learnt something painful in Forex , it´s who laughs last laughs best . So just take your sit and let´s see, because the upside reversal today from 129.7 just looks beautiful

Regards

bgareiss

January 19, 2010 at 01:38 PM ET

Regardless of what happens on this trade, it isn't about a few trades, a month, or even a few months. Positive long term results are the objective. Also, I would warn against being to certain that anything will happen in the markets. Unless you have the buying power to sway the entire market, you cannot say what will happen with certainty. Brad

NeoFX

January 19, 2010 at 02:17 PM ET

hey Brad, shouldn't your AUD/CHF short have been triggered already? I know it's not your job but need to update that into a trade in progress;

also, where are we on NZD/USD? first it's down, tehn up and now down again, but still your recommendation says to wait and go up.

thanks

bgareiss

January 19, 2010 at 02:41 PM ET

The AUD/CHF was updated to a "trade in progress" shortly after it entered. The NZD/USD has provided a few possible patterns over the past couple days, but they have mainly been invalidated. I will post a more detailed update on my report today. Brad

JKFXguy

January 19, 2010 at 05:38 PM ET

Honestly, I see a good entry for a long at 129.02. Which was the Oct low. Should this level break the only other valid long entries would be at 126.99.

I do like Harmonic patterns especially on the 4hr TF. I will take a long position on the lower 129.00 zone if the price action holds in this area for the rest of this week and hold that position until mid of next week or target price of 134.50 (which ever comes first).

Brad what is your position on eur/gdp? I'm currently starting to buy in at .8710 and will add on at .8680. I see a bullish harmonic pattern on the Daily and weekly TF and the price is holding on the weekly trendline. My target is at .8900.

bgareiss

January 19, 2010 at 05:47 PM ET

I see a pattern forming in the area you are talking about, although I am not sure where the exactly 0.8710, 0.8680, and 0.8900 levels come from. We can only post so many trades at this time, so if a pattern fits your criteria don't hesitate to trade it just because we haven't posted it yet. Brad

Cool dude

January 20, 2010 at 02:59 AM ET

hi
Look like eur/jpy pair is sinking so low. I don't sink it is feasible to put in along trade for now.
What is your opinion Brad?

bgareiss

January 20, 2010 at 12:30 PM ET

At this point, this trade is definitely dead. Brad

TheLoneTrader

January 21, 2010 at 12:52 AM ET

Brad,
interested in your thoughts on this pair now - although the last long bombed out bigtime, do you see another long opportunity now? currently at 129.13
thanks
LoneTrader

bgareiss

January 21, 2010 at 12:21 PM ET

Yes, drops that steep are a one of the big reasons we use stops. Otherwise that could have been pretty painful. I am staying out this pair until it calms down. That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a retracement soon. We have seen previous support at the current the level the last four times that the pair has tested this area. Brad

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