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GBP/CHF To Resume Uptrend at 1.6767?

The information, including Commentary and Trade Ideas, provided on FX360.com should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research which should be performed before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading and FX360 .com is merely providing this information for your general information. The information and opinions presented do not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. Any projections or views of the market provided by FX360.com may not prove to be accurate.

Last updated 11/20/2009 9:44 PM EST (GMT -5) 14 Comments

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Bradley W. Gareiss

Technical Analyst, GFT

A bullish Gartley pattern has nearly completed on the GBP/CHF 2hr Chart below.  The trade setup has nice symmetry in both price and time.  The trade would enter just below the bottom of the bullish channel on the 8hr Chart, which increases the probability of a successful trade.  The one thing we must be very cautious of is a gap down after the weekend.  If there is a big gap down, do not enter the trade.  Otherwise, this is a solid setup.

We are looking to buy the GBP/CHF if it falls to 1.6767 (Point D).  Point D is located at the convergence of the following points:

We will now go over what to watch for assuming the pair continues falling toward our entry at 1.6767.  The trade is also invalid if the pair rises above 1.6855 before hitting our entry.  The trade also would obviously be invalidated if it reaches our stop at 1.6713.

To recap, we will look to buy the GBP/CHF at 1.6767 with our stop placed at 1.6713.  Our initial profit targets are 1.6847 (38.2% of CD) and 1.6907 (61.8% of CD).

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  • 8hr Chart - Trade would enter just below the bullish trend line.
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  • 2hr Chart - Bullish Gartley; buy at 1.6767.

The information, including Commentary and Trade Ideas, provided on FX360.com should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research which should be performed before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading and FX360 .com is merely providing this information for your general information. The information and opinions presented do not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. Any projections or views of the market provided by FX360.com may not prove to be accurate.

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Comments (14)

cbrad

November 21, 2009 at 05:53 PM ET

this is a nice trade. on my charting my ab=cd was at 6775 so with no gaps my i will likely enter at market sunday. thanks for the eyes Brad.

FXDragon

November 22, 2009 at 08:50 AM ET

I have good feelings about the usdcad trade. However i will put my stplss up to 0885. I know this might sound crazy to some of you so dont try this at home! Try it on a demo or smt:)

bgareiss

November 23, 2009 at 02:42 PM ET

I think this comment was regarding the USD/CAD trade that has since completed, fyi. Brad

pp22

November 23, 2009 at 02:52 PM ET

Hey brad
about the usd/cad that just completed how did it manage +217 pips?, i saw it earlier showing +147pips.

bgareiss

November 23, 2009 at 02:58 PM ET

It wasn't closed by me, and it was calculated in correctly. For the purposes of the trade tracker, we assume that people open one lot for each profit target. Therefore, when the trade hits T2, we add the pips from both T1 and T2, which is where 217 came from. Also, if we are stopped out, the loss should be double the distance between the entry and the stop (to reflect two lots being traded). It isn't a perfect system, but it was what we are allowed to do. If you ever see a typo, don't hesitate to let us know because we want to keep everything 100% accurate. Brad

pp22

November 23, 2009 at 04:46 PM ET

ahh ok i see but then wouldnt it be +231

bgareiss

November 23, 2009 at 04:50 PM ET

The trade tracker had not updated the most recent profit targets (they were slightly altered on Friday). So it should be 217, and the trade tracker has now been updated to reflect that. Thanks again for pointing that out. Also, we are currently working on ways to make the trade tracker more streamlined with the recommendations so that these typos never happen. Brad

pp22

November 24, 2009 at 02:50 PM ET

ok i understand the tracking system but they really should show on the losses that its doubled, cause it looks a little skewed when the wins are using 2 lots and the losses using only 1 lot.

bgareiss

November 24, 2009 at 03:12 PM ET

The losses should be all doubled as I described in my last post. If you ever see a typo where that is not the case, let us know. Brad

Semaj

November 22, 2009 at 10:03 AM ET

Hey FXD, it seems that oil has gravity pulling it down to support @ 74/barrel. With the recent dollar strength (profit taking?) & the DXYO not holding below 75 the usd/cad seems likely to rise. T1 perhaps as a support bounce but T2 more of a long shot? Just a thought :)

What is smt?

Semaj

November 22, 2009 at 10:13 AM ET

Added thought, if we have a higher low on the daily chart I expect the 200 EMA on that daily to be a likely target as it lines up with a fib projection as well. That could land the pair @ 1.10 - 1.11. We'll see. Good luck :)

FXDragon

November 22, 2009 at 03:42 PM ET

Ok i'll quit trading if oil sees 74 and usdcad 1.10:) However i know the pair will see around 1.0800 sometime soon. I'm planning to make good money both by selling and buying around 1.0600. So dont get too greedy and take profits along the way:) Good luck to you as well...

Semaj

November 22, 2009 at 08:15 PM ET

I would like to see 1.06 or so after this pullback currently. I exited my long from 1.0450 on Friday afternoons close but I would go long again and take the ride to 1.08 or higher :) Go Bulls for now !

Mehul

November 23, 2009 at 06:22 PM ET

Thanks for usd/can
cheers

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