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Update: EUR/CHF Near Opportunity to Go Long at 1.5110

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Last updated 10/20/2009 6:51 PM EST (GMT -5) 6 Comments

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Bradley W. Gareiss

Technical Analyst, GFT

Yesterday we wrote about a bullish Gartley that was forming on the EUR/CHF.  If you missed it, don't worry because most of the material will be covered below.  Some of you may have noticed that this trade was technically invalidated because it dropped to 1.5114 and then rose to 1.5137.  However, this trade is not invalidated.  The reason for this is that the T1 level (1.5137) was determined using a lower hypothetical point D.  Therefore, the rise to 1.5137 didn't actually reach 38.2% of CD.  We usually just state the invalidation using T1 because it is simpler and works almost every time.  In this case however, the trade is still on with the same basic set up.  Below we will cover more details about the trade.  The main difference from yesterday's article is that the trade invalidation criteria has been changed.

The pair saw a large bullish move on the Weekly Chart that is now retracing back down.  The pair is now falling in the form of a bullish Gartley on the 4hr Chart as well.  The potential Gartley also would enter just below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement on the Weekly Chart.

We are looking to buy the EUR/CHF if the pair falls to 1.5110 (Point D).  Point D is located at the convergence of the following levels:

We will now go over what to watch for assuming the EUR/CHF continues falling toward our entry at 1.5110.  The trade is also invalid if the pair rises above 1.5141 before hitting our entry.

To recap, we will look to buy the EUR/CHF at 1.5110 with our stop placed at 1.5092.  Our initial profit targets are 1.5137 (38.2% of CD) and 1.5158 (61.8% of CD).

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  • Weekly Chart - Trade would enter just below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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  • 4hr Chart - Bullish Gartley; buy at 1.5110.

The information, including Commentary and Trade Ideas, provided on FX360.com should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research which should be performed before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading and FX360 .com is merely providing this information for your general information. The information and opinions presented do not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. Any projections or views of the market provided by FX360.com may not prove to be accurate.

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Comments (6)

fishmanszmit

October 21, 2009 at 11:05 AM ET

Hello, I am looking at EUR/CHF @1.5095 at 11AM EDT today but you guys have not initiated the trade? Can you let me know what level your charts are at? Thank you.

bgareiss

October 21, 2009 at 04:12 PM ET

The trade doesn't initiate on the trade tracker automatically. Our prices will be roughly the same as any other reputable source of forex prices. Don't over-think this, if the trade enters, it enters. Brad

m.hollingshaw

October 21, 2009 at 11:48 AM ET

Is this trade invalidated because it reached the stop? At 14:15 GMT it shows the low was 1.5091, just making sure I'm reading this correctly.

bgareiss

October 21, 2009 at 04:13 PM ET

Yes, this trade is stopped out. Brad

FxBeast09

October 21, 2009 at 06:32 PM ET

I'm used to trading dollar pairs but I took this trade based on your reccommendation. This cross is a boring, choppy one!

bgareiss

October 21, 2009 at 06:36 PM ET

I don't think it really matters what pairs you trade, as long as they are liquid pairs. All of these liquid pairs basically move the same way. The EUR/CHF has a smaller average daily range than most, but if you removed the price scale and time scale, there are very few people (if anyone) that could identify a somewhat major currency pair. Brad

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