EUR/CHF Near Opportunity to Go Long at 1.5110

4 Comments

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Last Updated: 10 min ago

The pair saw a large bullish move on the Weekly Chart that is now retracing back down. The pair is now falling in the form of a possible bullish Gartley on the 4hr Chart as well. The potential Gartley also would enter just below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement on the Weekly Chart.

We are looking to buy the EUR/CHF if the pair falls to 1.5110 (Point D). Point D is located at the convergence of the following levels:

  • 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of XA.
  • 127.2% Fibonacci extension of BC.
  • AB=CD.
  • 38.2% Fibonacci retracement on the Weekly Chart.
  • If RSI falls below 30.
  • We will now go over what to watch for assuming the EUR/CHF continues falling toward our entry at 1.5110. If the pair moves down rapidly and has long bars near point D, we will not enter the trade. Also, if the pair comes within 7 pips of reaching our entry, does not enter, and reaches T1 before entering, the trade is invalid. The trade is also invalid if the pair rises above 1.5176 before hitting our entry.

    To recap, we will look to buy the EUR/CHF at 1.5110 with our stop placed at 1.5092. Our initial profit targets are 1.5137 (38.2% of CD) and 1.5158 (61.8% of CD).


      • Weekly Chart - The trade would enter at the long term 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.

      • 4hr Chart - Bullish Gartley; buy at 1.5110.

    Comments (4)

    Johann
    October 20, 2009 at 07:48 AM ET
    Hi Bradley,
    I just had a question regarding being on the look out for long candles as it approaches the entry level which may suggest momentum at that time and invalidate that trade. What time frame are you referring to, to see if they are present? Long candles on a lower time frame may not be represented on a higher t/f and vice versus. Thanks, love the work all you guys put into the commentary and analysis.
    bgareiss
    October 20, 2009 at 01:30 PM ET
    Typically I watch for long bars on whatever time frame I am watching the trade on. This article should give more information on long bars as well : http://www.fx360.com/commentary/brad/2150/warning-signs-long-bars-review.aspx . Brad
    phi
    October 20, 2009 at 05:05 PM ET
    Bradley,

    This trade is invalidated correct?

    Thanks
    bgareiss
    October 20, 2009 at 05:15 PM ET
    Although it would be invalidated according to the article above, I would definitely still take this trade. It is kind of a long explanation why, but for now I will tell you this trade is still good as is. I will post an update to this trade as soon as I can. Brad

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    QUOTEBOARD

    • Key Quotes
    • Currencies
    • Markets
    •  
    • current
    • high
    • low
     
    • EUR/USD
    • down
    • 1.3615
    • 1.3626
    • 1.3598
    EUR/USD
    5 min chart
    • GBP/USD
    • up
    • 1.5202
    • 1.5254
    • 1.5175
    GBP/USD
    5 min chart
    • USD/JPY
    • down
    • 90.47
    • 90.59
    • 90.35
    USD/JPY
    5 min chart
    • OIL
    • down
    • 81.86
    • 82.12
    • 81.69
    CLJ0
    5 min chart
    • GOLD
    • up
    • 1123.9
    • 1126.2
    • 1121.7
    .GOLD
    5 min chart
    • US Stocks
    • up
    • 10778
    • 10780
    • 10769
    .US30
    5 min chart
    • UK Stocks
    • up
    • 5652.0
    • 5652.0
    • 5643.5
    .UK100
    5 min chart
    • DEM Stocks
    • up
    • 6033.0
    • 6035.3
    • 6026.8
    .DE30
    5 min chart
    • JP Stocks
    • up
    • 10808
    • 10823
    • 10768
    .JP225
    5 min chart
    •  
    • current
    • high
    • low
     
    • EUR/USD
    • down
    • 1.3615
    • 1.3626
    • 1.3598
    5 min chart
    • GBP/USD
    • up
    • 1.5202
    • 1.5254
    • 1.5175
    • USD/JPY
    • down
    • 90.47
    • 90.59
    • 90.35
    • USD/CHF
    • up
    • 1.0567
    • 1.0588
    • 1.0565
    • USD/CAD
    • down
    • 1.0164
    • 1.0176
    • 1.0134
    • AUD/USD
    • down
    • 0.9220
    • 0.9223
    • 0.9192
    • NZD/USD
    • down
    • 0.7146
    • 0.7156
    • 0.7137
    • USD/MXN
    • up
    • 12.5092
    • 12.5142
    • 12.5054
    • EUR/JPY
    • down
    • 123.18
    • 123.34
    • 122.95
    • GBP/JPY
    • up
    • 137.54
    • 138.08
    • 137.26
    •  
    • current
    • high
    • low
     
    • OIL
    • down
    • 81.86
    • 82.12
    • 81.69
    5 min chart
    • GOLD
    • up
    • 1123.9
    • 1126.2
    • 1121.7
    5 min chart
    • SILVER
    • down
    • 17.341
    • 17.371
    • 17.219
    5 min chart
    • US500
    • up
    • 1166.1
    • 1166.4
    • 1164.6
    5 min chart
    • UK Stocks
    • up
    • 5652.0
    • 5652.0
    • 5643.5
    5 min chart
    • DEM Stocks
    • up
    • 6033.0
    • 6035.3
    • 6026.8
    5 min chart
    • JP Stocks
    • up
    • 10808
    • 10823
    • 10768
    5 min chart
    • AU Stocks
    • up
    • 4874.0
    • 4876.5
    • 4860.5
    5 min chart
    Data source: GFT

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