EUR/CHF To Resume Downtrend At 1.5243?

3 Comments

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Last Updated: 10 min ago

The EUR/CHF has been slowing trending down for about two years. During this drop, the pair has met resistance several times at the bearish trend line seen on the Weekly Chart. Notice that the bearish Gartley/double top pattern would complete near the bearish trend line. We are anticipating point C will hold because it is near the exact 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of AB.

We are looking to the sell the EUR/CHF at 1.5243 (Point D). Point D is located at the convergence of the following points:

  • 100% Fibonacci retracement of XA.
  • 161.8% Fibonacci extension of BC.
  • AB=CD.
  • Bearish trend line on the Weekly Chart.
  • If RSI rises above 70.
  • We will now go over possible ways the trade could be invalidated. First, we need to watch how quickly CD completes. We are looking for the CD leg to rise slowly and enter the trade near our hypothetical entry on the 4hr Chart. If there are long bars near the completion of the CD leg, we will not take the trade. If the pair comes within 10 pips of reaching our entry, does not enter, and reaches T1 before entering, the trade is invalid. The trade is also invalid if the pair falls below 1.5120 before hitting our entry.

    To recap, we will look to sell the EUR/CHF at 1.5243 with our stop placed at 1.5267. Our initial profit targets are 1.5208 (38.2% of CD) and 1.5177 (61.8% of CD).


      • Weekly Chart - Trade would enter near the bearish trend line.

      • 4hr Chart - Bearish Gartley; sell at 1.5243.

    Comments (3)

    jacobuzon
    October 17, 2009 at 03:22 PM ET
    I agree, Mr Gareiss's articles are highly valuable and well articulated. I feel like we should be paying for this.
    pipster
    October 18, 2009 at 04:22 PM ET
    Bite your tongue, lol. I'll gladly pay a commission on winners, don't like payiing on losers though, it's a mental thing I can't get over.

    Seriously, always great analysis from Brad.
    FRXtrader
    October 17, 2009 at 12:41 PM ET
    Great information! I really appreciate you giving us traders insight on the direction of various currency pairs. I've learned a lot since becoming a member here. I'm looking forward to seeing more beneficial information in the days, weeks, and months to come.

    God bless and have an excellent day FX360!!

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    TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS

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    Medium term



    Sell Sell at 1.0677
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    Buy Buy at .9152
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    GBP/JPY
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    currency recommendation
    NZD/USD
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    QUOTEBOARD

    • Key Quotes
    • Currencies
    • Markets
    •  
    • current
    • high
    • low
     
    • EUR/USD
    • down
    • 1.3530
    • 1.3626
    • 1.3524
    EUR/USD
    5 min chart
    • GBP/USD
    • down
    • 1.5102
    • 1.5254
    • 1.5101
    GBP/USD
    5 min chart
    • USD/JPY
    • down
    • 90.55
    • 90.70
    • 90.35
    USD/JPY
    5 min chart
    • OIL
    • down
    • 81.63
    • 82.12
    • 81.47
    CLJ0
    5 min chart
    • GOLD
    • down
    • 1123.3
    • 1126.6
    • 1120.5
    .GOLD
    5 min chart
    • US Stocks
    • up
    • 10766
    • 10816
    • 10765
    .US30
    5 min chart
    • UK Stocks
    • down
    • 5665.8
    • 5697.8
    • 5643.5
    .UK100
    5 min chart
    • DEM Stocks
    • up
    • 6019.3
    • 6041.3
    • 6011.0
    .DE30
    5 min chart
    • JP Stocks
    • down
    • 10774
    • 10824
    • 10768
    .JP225
    5 min chart
    •  
    • current
    • high
    • low
     
    • EUR/USD
    • down
    • 1.3530
    • 1.3626
    • 1.3524
    5 min chart
    • GBP/USD
    • down
    • 1.5102
    • 1.5254
    • 1.5101
    • USD/JPY
    • down
    • 90.55
    • 90.70
    • 90.35
    • USD/CHF
    • up
    • 1.0618
    • 1.0625
    • 1.0539
    • USD/CAD
    • up
    • 1.0113
    • 1.0188
    • 1.0060
    • AUD/USD
    • down
    • 0.9181
    • 0.9223
    • 0.9181
    • NZD/USD
    • down
    • 0.7095
    • 0.7156
    • 0.7094
    • USD/MXN
    • up
    • 12.5259
    • 12.5468
    • 12.4924
    • EUR/JPY
    • down
    • 122.52
    • 123.34
    • 122.52
    • GBP/JPY
    • down
    • 136.75
    • 138.08
    • 136.74
    •  
    • current
    • high
    • low
     
    • OIL
    • down
    • 81.63
    • 82.12
    • 81.47
    5 min chart
    • GOLD
    • down
    • 1123.3
    • 1126.6
    • 1120.5
    5 min chart
    • SILVER
    • down
    • 17.332
    • 17.387
    • 17.219
    5 min chart
    • US500
    • down
    • 1162.9
    • 1169.1
    • 1162.9
    5 min chart
    • UK Stocks
    • down
    • 5665.8
    • 5697.8
    • 5643.5
    5 min chart
    • DEM Stocks
    • up
    • 6019.3
    • 6041.3
    • 6011.0
    5 min chart
    • JP Stocks
    • down
    • 10774
    • 10824
    • 10768
    5 min chart
    • AU Stocks
    • down
    • 4861.0
    • 4882.0
    • 4860.5
    5 min chart
    Data source: GFT

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