Euro Shrugs Off a Miss in German Retail Sales

Last updated 7/30/2010 2:48 AM ET (GMT -5) 0 Comments - Add your comment

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Boris Schlossberg

Director of Currency Research, GFT

German Retail Sales missed expectations printing at -0.9% versus forecasts of a flat reading, but rose 3.1% on a year over year basis in real terms. The annual figures were slightly exaggerated by the fact that June had on extra shopping day in comparison with 2009. Overall, sales of food and tobacco were up 1.0% on the year while non-food items rose 5.1%.

Today’s miss on the Retail Sales front was the first piece of economic data from EZ to disappoint this week, suggesting that final demand in the region’s largest economy remains muted as consumers recover from the worst recession in post war history.  So far this year’s Retail Sales results have been highly uneven with 3 months down, three up and one month flat indicating that retail demand is still attempting to stabilize before it can begin to increase steadily as growth improves.

The markets however, ignored the news on the consumer front as EUR/USD rebounded off its Asian session lows to trade at 1.3075 at the European open.  With little other event risk on the calendar today with the exception of EU unemployment due at 9:00GMT the pair could trade sideways consolidating its recent gains. The primary focus of the day will be US GDP data due 12:30 GMT which could have strong impact on risk flows for the rest of the day.

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About The Author

Boris Schlossberg began his Wall Street trading career more than 20 years ago at Drexel Burhnam Lambert. There, he traded nearly every type of financial product on the market in the U.S., from equities and options to stock index futures and foreign exchange. His innate ability to analyze market information and use it to trade has helped him become an industry-recognized, “go to” trading professional.

These days, whenever the markets move, many organizations turn to Schlossberg for his take on the situation. He is a weekly contributor to CNBC's Squawk Box and a regular commentator for Bloomberg radio and television. His daily currency research is widely quoted by Reuters, Dow Jones and Agence France Presse newswires and appears in numerous newspapers worldwide. Schlossberg has written for publications like SFO magazine, Active Trader and Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities. He is also the author of Technical Analysis of the Currency Market and the co-author of Millionaire Traders: How Everyday People Are Beating Wall Street at Its Own Game with Kathy Lien. He joined GFT in 2008.