US Retail Sales for March printed much worse than forecast at -1.1% versus expectations of 0.3% gain. Less autos the number also printed weaker at -0.9% versus 0.0% projected. The news was a blow to recovery bulls who had argued that US consumer demand was stabilizing as the US economy was in the process of carving out a bottom.

Today’s markets have seen some of the most sustained inactivity in months. With US equity markets closed and new economic data at a minimum, the currency market decided to take a breath and allow time for this week’s developments to filter through. We are left with some time to further contemplate the notion of whether or not we are in the midsts of a bear market rally or a complete market reversal. The yen strengthens by less than 40 pips while the pound was virtually unchanged today. The euro advanced by about 60 pips, hardly making up for this week’s 400 pips in losses. Among commodity currencies, the big mover was USD/CAD, rising by about 20 pips.

After posting a tiny rebound the month prior Eurozone Retail Sales turned negative in March posting their second monthly decline this year. EZ March Retail Sales contracted by -0.6% versus forecasts of -0.3% - their worst reading since December 2008 - as European consumers fearful of rising unemployment continued to curb their spending.

The U.S. dollar capped the week off with a strong rally that may have set the tone for trading in the coming week. Despite a number of interesting political developments since Monday, the price action of most major currency pairs have been consolidative – up until now. Many factors have contributed to the sharp appreciation of the U.S. dollar, but for currency traders, their primary question is whether the rally can be sustained in the new and extremely busy trading week. Before even talking about the event risks, it is first important to remember that next week represents the end of the first quarter for many U.S. corporations and the end of the fiscal year for many Japanese companies. Therefore we may have a lot of action in the currency market that is related more to repatriation than economic fundamentals.

Over the past few months, a rally in U.S. equities has generally been met with a sell-off in the U.S. dollar. The primary reason was because parking money into the low yielding U.S. dollar was synonymous with risk aversion. Therefore one would expect that today’s 2 percent rally in equities should have driven the U.S. dollar lower against all of the major currencies. We did see dollar weakness, but it was only against the Australian and New Zealand dollars. The greenback increased in value against the Euro and British pound leading many traders to wonder why those currencies failed to participate in the rally.

A new trend has emerged in the U.S. dollar this week courtesy of the Federal Reserve’s decision to start buying U.S. Treasuries. However judging from the price action across the financial markets, investors are not entirely convinced that the central bank’s actions will be enough to stabilize the U.S. economy. Stocks and gold prices have retreated after rallying on Wednesday while bond yields recovered. The U.S. dollar has also bounced but remains very weak. Given that the most significant consequences of the Fed’s action are higher bond prices (lower bond yields) and a weaker U.S. dollar, traders should not be distracted by the sell-off in U.S. equities. With no economic data or major announcements from the U.S. on Friday, profit taking has hit the currency market.

Volatility has ripped through the foreign exchange market as the U.S. dollar gave back its earlier gains. Safe haven flows drove the dollar higher at the beginning of the U.S. trading session, but the currency lost value when equities took off. The big story in the foreign exchange today was the Swiss National Bank’s controversial and nuclear decision to intervene in the currency market, raising fears of a global FX war. By coming into the foreign exchange market to sell Swiss Francs, the central bank has driven the Euro and U.S. dollar sharply higher. The gains in these currencies were exacerbated by the rally in U.S. equities and a stronger retail sales report. The rally in the foreign exchange market today indicates that risk appetite has improved.

UK Retail Sales posted a gain of 0.7% versus forecast of 0.0% surprising the currency market which was geared for a much weaker result. December's data was also revised upward coming at very healthy 1.6% rate. The news confirms the sharp rise in BRC retail sales earlier in the month and suggests that UK economy may be more resilient than the market current dour consensus.

This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that January was another month of massive job losses. For the third time in a row, more than 500k Americans lost their jobs. The market was looking for payrolls to drop by 540k, but instead they fell by a whopping 598k (Instant Insight on January Non-Farm Payrolls). Yet, currencies and equities traded like non-farm payrolls increased rather than decreased but this baffling response to a very negative number can be easily explained by the prospect of help from Washington.