Results for non-farm payroll
5 articles with this tag name
  • The U.S. dollar has ended the week lower against all higher yielding currencies as the actions by Washington and leaders of the 20 largest economies have helped to restore risk appetite. USD/JPY which tracks the market’s sentiment broke 100, to trade at the highest level since November. The fate of the dollar in the week ahead will be largely dependent upon whether we are at a turning point in the global recession or if investors have been misled by false expectations.
  • There is no question that the US labor market is very weak with job losses expected to extend for the 14th consecutive month. If February non-farm payrolls exceed -450k, then more than 4 million Americans would have lost their jobs since January 2008. The current forecasts for non-farm payrolls are far more pessimistic with analysts predicting a decline of 650k jobs. The US dollar has rallied as risk aversion drags down the higher yielding currency pairs, but if non-farm payrolls surprise to the upside and we that think it will, the dollar may give back some its spectacular gains.
  • This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that January was another month of massive job losses. For the third time in a row, more than 500k Americans lost their jobs. The market was looking for payrolls to drop by 540k, but instead they fell by a whopping 598k (Instant Insight on January Non-Farm Payrolls). Yet, currencies and equities traded like non-farm payrolls increased rather than decreased but this baffling response to a very negative number can be easily explained by the prospect of help from Washington.
  • On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to tell us that US employers fired another 500k people in the month of January. Surprisingly enough currencies and equities are trading higher ahead of the non-farm payrolls report which suggests that traders are not afraid of a bad number. Everyone knows that the US economy is very weak and major job losses will continue. Since traders are becoming immune to bad data, it may take job losses in the area of 600k to spook them (January Non-Farm Payrolls Preview). Instead, traders are looking beyond Friday’s non-farm payrolls report to the Monday, February 9th speech by US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner. According to a Treasury official, Geithner is expected to unveil a bank rescue plan next week. This is one of the few things that could strike a meaningful recovery in the currency and equity markets. If traders deem Geithner’s plan as satisfactory, we could see a further recovery in the financial markets despite the fact that the US economy will get worse before it gets better.
  • The US dollar traded lower today as safe haven demand subsided. New fiscal stimulus has been announced in Australia and Japan leading US investors to hope that similar help is around the corner. The full Senate is expected to vote on the $885 billion stimulus package this week and the prospect of a swift approval is having a big impact on the currency market. Politics is overshadowing economics and in that same vein, any delays in getting the money into the hands of Americans could derail the greenback.

TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS

  • Trades to Watch
  • Trades in Progress
currency recommendation
USD/CHF
Medium term



Sell Sell at 1.0677
Stop at 1.0706
Target at 1.0633
AUD/USD
Medium term



Buy Buy at .9152
Stop at 0.9136
Target at 0.9175
GBP/JPY
Medium term



Buy Buy at 136.1000
Stop at 135.58
Target at 136.89
currency recommendation
NZD/USD
Medium term
Opened 2/26/2010
Sell Short from 0.7141
Stop at 0.7205
Target at 0.7055

QUOTEBOARD

  • Key Quotes
  • Currencies
  • Markets
  •  
  • current
  • high
  • low
 
  • EUR/USD
  • up
  • 1.3614
  • 1.3626
  • 1.3598
EUR/USD
5 min chart
  • GBP/USD
  • down
  • 1.5201
  • 1.5254
  • 1.5175
GBP/USD
5 min chart
  • USD/JPY
  • down
  • 90.48
  • 90.59
  • 90.35
USD/JPY
5 min chart
  • OIL
  • down
  • 81.90
  • 82.12
  • 81.69
CLJ0
5 min chart
  • GOLD
  • down
  • 1123.8
  • 1126.2
  • 1121.7
.GOLD
5 min chart
  • US Stocks
  • up
  • 10778
  • 10780
  • 10769
.US30
5 min chart
  • UK Stocks
  • up
  • 5652.0
  • 5652.0
  • 5643.5
.UK100
5 min chart
  • DEM Stocks
  • up
  • 6035.0
  • 6035.3
  • 6026.8
.DE30
5 min chart
  • JP Stocks
  • up
  • 10808
  • 10823
  • 10768
.JP225
5 min chart
  •  
  • current
  • high
  • low
 
  • EUR/USD
  • up
  • 1.3614
  • 1.3626
  • 1.3598
5 min chart
  • GBP/USD
  • down
  • 1.5201
  • 1.5254
  • 1.5175
  • USD/JPY
  • down
  • 90.48
  • 90.59
  • 90.35
  • USD/CHF
  • down
  • 1.0561
  • 1.0588
  • 1.0560
  • USD/CAD
  • down
  • 1.0162
  • 1.0176
  • 1.0134
  • AUD/USD
  • up
  • 0.9218
  • 0.9223
  • 0.9192
  • NZD/USD
  • up
  • 0.7149
  • 0.7156
  • 0.7137
  • USD/MXN
  • up
  • 12.5092
  • 12.5142
  • 12.5054
  • EUR/JPY
  • up
  • 123.19
  • 123.34
  • 122.95
  • GBP/JPY
  • down
  • 137.54
  • 138.08
  • 137.26
  •  
  • current
  • high
  • low
 
  • OIL
  • down
  • 81.90
  • 82.12
  • 81.69
5 min chart
  • GOLD
  • down
  • 1123.8
  • 1126.2
  • 1121.7
5 min chart
  • SILVER
  • down
  • 17.349
  • 17.371
  • 17.219
5 min chart
  • US500
  • up
  • 1165.9
  • 1166.4
  • 1164.6
5 min chart
  • UK Stocks
  • up
  • 5652.0
  • 5652.0
  • 5643.5
5 min chart
  • DEM Stocks
  • up
  • 6035.0
  • 6035.3
  • 6026.8
5 min chart
  • JP Stocks
  • up
  • 10808
  • 10823
  • 10768
5 min chart
  • AU Stocks
  • up
  • 4874.0
  • 4876.5
  • 4860.5
5 min chart
Data source: GFT

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