The euro received a lift from better than expected PMI Manufacturing and Services surveys both of which printed materially stronger than forecast. The Manufacturing PMI rose to 36.7 from 34.7 eyed while the Services survey jumped to 43.1 from 42.1 projected. As we noted earlier, “Today’ s upward surprise should take some pressure off the ECB in the near term. European monetary authorities have come under enormous amount of criticism for keeping credit conditions too tight at a time when the rest of the G4 has implemented a near Zero Interest Rate Policy. The uptick in the PMI data suggests that the EZ economy is responding to a pick-up in global demand despite relative lack of fiscal and monetary stimulus.”

EZ PMI Services survey registered it best reading in six months printing at 43.1 versus forecasts of 41.2 while the Manufacturing gauge also improved to 36.7 from 33.9 the month prior. The better than expected results of the survey suggest that the contraction in EZ economy may be bottoming out having reached its nadir in Q1 of 2009.

USD/JPY took out the key 100 level mark on a stop fueled rally in Asian session while cable ran through the 1.4800 figure in a lively pre-NFP action as currency markets prepared to end a volatile week of trade. In Asia very aggressive buying from option related accounts knocked out the 100 barrier in the pair backed by continuation of risk appetite in the afterglow of the successful G-20 summit.

UK PMI Services report improved markedly rising to 45.6 versus 43.2 the period prior and 43.6 consensus call. The upside surprise in the PMI Services report caps a good week for UK economic data with PMI Manufacturing and PMI Construction releases improving as well. The news provides the strongest evidence to date that the contraction in UK economic activity may have finally leveled off, although all three gauges remain below the key 50 boom/bust line.

The last trading day in the first quarter of 2009 has ended with a bang. The U.S. dollar sold off against most of the major currencies as repatriation flows come to an end. U.S. economic data was weak, but not a game changer and therefore currency investors chose instead to focus on the positive implications of Japan’s stimulus package and the IRS’ new tax break for U.S. car buyers. The currencies that are performing the best against the U.S. dollar are the ones whose central banks are not expected to adopt quantitative easing, namely the Australian New Zealand dollar.

German and French PMI readings improved for the first time in months suggesting that that vicious contraction in demand that dogged the region over the past year may be showing nascent signs of stabilization. German Manufacturing PMI printed at 32.2 vs. 31.9 eyed while the Service PMI rose slightly to 41.7 from 41 forecast. The French data was better with services rebounding to 42.9 from 40.2 expected and manufacturing registering a reading of 36.3 versus 35 called. The EZ Composite PMI number also rose to 40.1 from 39.2 the period prior.

The EUR/USD gave up much of yesterday’s gains in Asian and early European trade as risk aversion and woeful PMI flash readings kept the unit under pressure for most of the night. UK data on the other hand registered another upside surprise keeping pound within reach of the 1.4300 figure.

Based upon the price action in the currency market, one would assume that risk appetite is improving. However, if you took a look at the sell-off equities, it suggests otherwise. Over the past few months, there has been a strong correlation between these two instruments with equity market weakness driving USD/JPY lower. Unfortunately this correlation has decoupled today, leading currency traders to wonder which asset correctly reflects the market’s appetite and why there is a decoupling.

Another rambling night of trade in the currency market as the EUR/USD struggled with the 1.3000 handle after staging a reversal in North American session yesterday. Better risk appetite and the growing political woes of the Obama administration helped fuel Tuesday's rally, but the unit could not hold its gains as dour economic data and steady EURGBP sell flows kept the downward pressure.

In what may be a small glimmer of hope, UK PMI Services printed better than forecast at 42.5 against 40.3 suggesting that UK economy may be finally showing some signs of stabilization. This was the third consecutive PMI reading this week that surprised to the upside lending more credence to the sterling bullish view that the worst of the UK contraction may be over.

Eurozone flash PMI reading improved slightly in January with almost all of the gains coming from France while German data simply held its own. French PMI Services report increased to 42.9 from 40.6 the month prior while the Manufacturing data jumped to 38.1 against 34.9 in last period's reading. On the German side the data remained steady with Manufacturing at 32 against 32 expected while Services printed at 45.4 versus 45.5 forecast