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It has been an extremely interesting day in the currency market with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner tripping over his comments about the U.S. dollar and an auction of 5 year Treasury notes seeing surprising weak results. Geithner’s fumble could not come at a worst time as investors remain skeptical about the effectiveness of the Obama Administration’s efforts to stimulate the U.S. economy. Top that off with the failed Treasury auction and it is clear that the actions of everyone in the Obama Administration from the Treasury Secretary to the Federal Reserve Chairman have left an air of uncertainty across the financial markets. The U.S. dollar has weakened against the Euro and Japanese Yen but ended the day unchanged against the commodity currencies.
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Euro spend most of the Asian session consolidating and correcting some of its massive gains from yesterday, but jumped higher to take out the 1.2950 level as European trading began. On a night when the economic calendar was essentially barren risk appetite flows dominated trade as the pair oscillated around the 1.2900 handle.
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Australian unemployment hit a four year high reaching 5.2% versus estimates of 5% but surprisingly the country’s economy continued to generate jobs adding 1800 new workers versus forecasts of -20,000 loss. The labor participation rate also improved rising to 65.5% from 65.3%.
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Markets are once again entrenched in a fear induced environment. Global equity markets are spiraling downward on continued disruptions in the stability of the global financial system. The promise of stability is nowhere to be found, as situations are only worsening despite continued governmental efforts. The concerns over the financial sector in particular have added to investors fears. Between the British nationalization of Lloyds Banking Group and AIG’s proposal for another bail-out, the survivability of financial companies is in question. Currencies have reacted with a determination on dollar strength. As the yen continues to lose its status as safe haven, the availability of a risk-free environment is almost completely limited to the United States. The dollar advanced against the Euro, Pound, Yen, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, and New Zealand dollar.
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Gold spiked to within two dollars of $900/oz in holiday leaden Asian trading as saber rattling between US and Chinese officials regarding the manipulation of the yuan ratcheted the tension in global capital markets. Last week Treasury Secretary-designate Timothy Geithner stated that China was a currency manipulator sending shock waves through the financial markets as the Obama administration appears to have taken a much more confrontational stance with Chinese authorities than its predecessor.
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The drop in the GBP/USD at the start of this week has been nothing short of astonishing. In less than 48 hours the pair erased more than 1000 points off its price depreciating by more than 6% against the dollar. Although cable has been in decline since the turbulent markets of last fall, this latest freefall carries a whiff of true panic about it as markets fear that that UK government spending schemes to rescue the country’s ailing banking sector will put unsustainable stress on the Treasury.
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The EZ Trade Balance for November registered its ninth negative reading in 2008 as higher exchange rates and significant slowdown in global demand continued to pose difficulties for the export driven region.