Consumer prices rose 0.4 percent last month, with prices year over year rising 0.2 percent.

It was not entirely surprising that US consumer prices rose 0.3 percent in the month of January considering a similar rise in producer prices reported yesterday.

Based upon the price action in the currency market, one would assume that risk appetite is improving. However, if you took a look at the sell-off equities, it suggests otherwise. Over the past few months, there has been a strong correlation between these two instruments with equity market weakness driving USD/JPY lower. Unfortunately this correlation has decoupled today, leading currency traders to wonder which asset correctly reflects the market’s appetite and why there is a decoupling.

The much anticipated announcements from Washington have triggered a dramatic turn in the currency and equity markets. With investors flocking back into the safety of US dollars and the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 381 points, it is clear that investors are not satisfied with the Obama Administration’s new programs to unlock the credit the market and rescue the financial sector. If today’s announcements were to be measured by their ability to restore confidence in the financial markets, then the new President has failed miserably. Fortunately we are more optimistic and believe that economic stability will be restored under Obama’s leadership, but patience may be needed.

The Federal Reserve is currently holding a two day monetary policy meeting and it will be interesting to see whether they are desperate enough to introduce radical programs that can incite the enthusiasm of investors. With interest rates virtually at zero, a rate cut is not expected, but the central bank is under pressure to take further action. So far, their effort which includes 500bp of easing has helped to prevent the recession from turning into a depression but it has yet to stabilize the economy. The latest string of economic data indicates that the US economy is still on a downtrend and headed lower. The FOMC rate decision tomorrow could be a nonevent for the US dollar, but if the Federal Reserve is desperate enough, they still have the power to surprise the markets.

The euro rebounded in Asian and early European trade tonight after yesterday’s ECB’s decision to lower rates by 50bp to 2.00%. The pair reached its lowest level in a month yesterday when it hit a low of 1.3024 after Jean Claude Trichet admitted that the economic situation in the Eurozone was deteriorating rapidly and suggested that more cuts would be coming.