China’ s GDP printed slightly weaker than expected at 6.1% versus 6.3% forecast – its slowest pace of growth this decade, but despite the lower headline number underlying fundamentals suggest that the Chinese economy continues to expand at a healthy pace.

A relatively quiet night of trade in the currency markets punctuated by some profit taking in high beta currencies after the euro, the pound and the Aussie all rallied strongly yesterday as risk appetite continued to dominate trade. Today the mood has been t more somber with US equity futures pointing to a lower open despite the fact that Goldman Sachs reported better than expected results yesterday after the close of US equity session.

The next 24-48 hours will be critical and may set the stage for what could be the swing trade of the month....

The Reserve Bank of Australia made a Solomonic decision tonight lowering rates by 25bp to 3.00%. The RBA split the difference between Aussie bulls who anticipated no change whatsoever in the overnight rate and Aussie bears who forecast a larger 50bp cut. In commenting on their decision the board noted that , “There has already been a major change in both monetary and fiscal policy in Australia. Market and mortgage rates are at very low levels by historical standards and business loan rates are below recent averages, reducing debt-servicing burdens considerably. Nonetheless, the Board judged that there was scope for a further modest adjustment to the cash rate."

The start of the week revived the carry trade in the currency market with Aussie hitting the 70 cent mark for the first time since January 10th of this year as equity markets in Asia and Europe opened on a positive note. The stealth rally in commodities which saw oil prices hit $52/bbl in overnight trade while gold rose to $957/oz also helped contribute to AUD/USD strength.

Euro spend most of the Asian session consolidating and correcting some of its massive gains from yesterday, but jumped higher to take out the 1.2950 level as European trading began. On a night when the economic calendar was essentially barren risk appetite flows dominated trade as the pair oscillated around the 1.2900 handle.

TRADE IN PROGRESS...on multiple bullish pattern convergence establishing 2.11 a critical support

Australian unemployment hit a four year high reaching 5.2% versus estimates of 5% but surprisingly the country’s economy continued to generate jobs adding 1800 new workers versus forecasts of -20,000 loss. The labor participation rate also improved rising to 65.5% from 65.3%.

Both euro and pound recovered off their North American session lows in a quiet rangebound session that carried very little event risk on the calendar. However, the star of the show in currency market tonight was the Australian dollar which singlehandedly revived risk appetite after the RBA surprised traders by keeping its overnight cash rate at 3.25% instead lowering it by 25bp as expected.

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates on hold at 3.25% surprising the currency market which expected a rate cut of 25bp or more. The move came on the night when the country reported much better Retail Sales of 0.2% versus -0.5% expected as well as in improved Current Account number of -6.5 Billion versus forecast of -7.3 Billion deficit.

The AUD/USD and NZD/USD may have topped out in the face of previously established major resistance...

The euro started off the new week the same way it ended the last one – by sliding against the dollar as focus in the currency shifted towards the ECB. The central banker in Frankfurt are facing escalating pressure to lower rates in light of the severe slowdown in economic activity in the Eurozone. In contrast , Friday’s US Non Farm payrolls, though horrid at -525K, were far better than the whisper number of -700K and as a result support for the greenback stiffened as the data refused to confirm the dollar bears worst expectations.