The euro received a lift from better than expected PMI Manufacturing and Services surveys both of which printed materially stronger than forecast. The Manufacturing PMI rose to 36.7 from 34.7 eyed while the Services survey jumped to 43.1 from 42.1 projected. As we noted earlier, “Today’ s upward surprise should take some pressure off the ECB in the near term. European monetary authorities have come under enormous amount of criticism for keeping credit conditions too tight at a time when the rest of the G4 has implemented a near Zero Interest Rate Policy. The uptick in the PMI data suggests that the EZ economy is responding to a pick-up in global demand despite relative lack of fiscal and monetary stimulus.”

After a brief pop in Asia EUR/USD selling continued in early European trade with the unit pressured by the release of yet another disappointing Industrial Production report which showed a drop of -2.3% versus -2.5% forecast. Although the data beat estimates slightly it nevertheless confirms the notion that the manufacturing sector is contracting sharply and will likely drag the EZ GDP lower as the year progresses.

The next 48 hours in the foreign exchange market should be very interesting as we look forward to three significant events that could trigger massive volatility in the currency market independently, let alone collectively. After some big moves earlier this week, most currency pairs have consolidated as traders wait for the European Central Bank interest rate decision, the G20 meeting and the U.S. non-farm payrolls report. The U.S. dollar strengthened against the Euro and Swiss Franc but lost value against all of the other major currencies. This consolidation should just be a precursor to a bigger move.

German and French PMI readings improved for the first time in months suggesting that that vicious contraction in demand that dogged the region over the past year may be showing nascent signs of stabilization. German Manufacturing PMI printed at 32.2 vs. 31.9 eyed while the Service PMI rose slightly to 41.7 from 41 forecast. The French data was better with services rebounding to 42.9 from 40.2 expected and manufacturing registering a reading of 36.3 versus 35 called. The EZ Composite PMI number also rose to 40.1 from 39.2 the period prior.

According to the latest Treasury International Capital flow report, foreign investors were net sellers of U.S. investments and U.S. dollars in the month of January.

Last week’s counter trend rally in GBP/USD came to a crushing halt in early London trade today as the unit slid nearly 300 points off its highs having reached key resistance at the 1.4500 level before the week-end. The worst snowstorm to hit UK in more than 15 years added to the sterling’s woes as businesses struggled to open at the start of the week. The primary cause for the down draft however was simple risk aversion and profit taking.

According to the ISM report, activity in the manufacturing sector has contracted for the 13th consecutive month but the contraction is slowing. After hitting a 26 year low in the month of December, the manufacturing sector ISM index rebounded in January from 32.9 to 35.6.

Over the past 6 months, being long US dollars has been one of the best trades in the currency market but as the dollar extends its gains, many traders wonder how much further it can rise. In the currency market, trends can last much longer than anyone would normally anticipate especially if it is driven by fear. As humans, we run from uncertainty and not towards it. Risk aversion has been pushing investors into the safety of the US dollar and out of higher yielding currencies. When Main Street reads in the papers tomorrow about the slowest pace of economic growth in 26 years, their shock could turn into more selling. Next week, we also have the US non-farm payrolls report due for release. A sour mood could hang over the markets for most of the week as traders fear that another 500k jobs were lost in the month of January. The only thing that could improve risk appetite and give investors a reason to cheer would be if the Senate passes President Obama’s economic stimulus package.

Eurozone flash PMI reading improved slightly in January with almost all of the gains coming from France while German data simply held its own. French PMI Services report increased to 42.9 from 40.6 the month prior while the Manufacturing data jumped to 38.1 against 34.9 in last period's reading. On the German side the data remained steady with Manufacturing at 32 against 32 expected while Services printed at 45.4 versus 45.5 forecast

UK manufacturing plummeted by -2.9% against forecast of only -0.5% dragging pound lower in early London trade, but the unit managed to recover most of its post news release losses as focus shifted to the US Non Farm payroll report due later today at 13:30 GMT. Part of the reason for currency market’s rather nonchalant reaction to the worst UK manufacturing reading since 1981 may have to do with the fact that the manufacturing sector comprises a relatively modest percentage of the UK economy which is much more service oriented than the large economies of the Eurozone.